APBRmetrics

May I ask how you're calculating WARP/pWins from the RPM values? The same calculation I use with RAPM to derive WARP worked out horribly with RPM when I did a retrodiction comparing the two.

I'd feel good about taking the TWolves over and the Lakers under. To get above 31 wins, the Lakers need a really optimistic minutes distribution for Kobe as well as assuming that either Kobe or Lin/Boozer/Davis return to 2013 form (by RAPM, I haven't looked at the difference between 2013 and 2014 fo...

Why are the RPM values for the Knicks so much lower than the xRAPM values? I hadn't looked closely at it before until I noticed how pessimistic that projection was - I thought maybe Felton and Chandler were being given more credit than I anticipated, but even in a retrodiction of last season it come...

nbacouchside wrote:Team Wins
OKC 63
SAS 60
CLE 59
GSW 58
LAC 58
CHI 55
DAL 55
MEM 53
PHX 50
HOU 50
TOR 50
MIA 47
WAS 47
POR 45
IND 45
ATL 38
BKN 38
MIN 37
CHA 36
NOP 36
DEN 35
DET 32
BOS 29
ORL 28
NYK 28
UTA 24
SAC 23
MIL 21
LAL 16
PHI 14

Is this a gut projection or based on something more methodical?

If you meant whether the metric includes whether the opponent has sub-standard rest (i.e. a 3IN4, B2B, 3IN4-B2B, or 4IN5) the game the team faces them, then that is included (NBAStuffer.com provides detailed information about both each team's rest schedule and how much rest their game-by-game oppone...

I added a "Rest Metric" to my projections that penalizes teams according to the number of 3IN4s (the third game of an X-X-O-X), B2B (second game of X-X), B2B-3IN4 (third game of an X-O-X-X), and 5IN4 (fifth game of X-X-O-X-X) that team and the opposing team have using stats pulled from NBA...

Do you have a non-coach-adjusted set for the full 2014 regular season? I came across this: http://www.gotbuckets.com/statistics/rapm/2014-rapm/, but since most include the playoffs and calculating RAPM is a black box for me, so I've just ignored it.

I'm making a projection by taking the average each team's WP and RAPM projection, and I'm getting oddly low records for the OKC Thunder. Both have the Thunder in the mid-50s, and while there are a number of teams whose projections are slightly off from the range I would expect, this is the only one ...