APBRmetrics

BPM is the one stat that takes into account the exact opponent strength -- not just the opponent regular season team averages, but the actual players who have been in the games. It may over- or under-rate certain stats or positions, but it should be consistent about a given player's rise or fall, r...

Ben Taylor pointed out Harden's numbers went down a lot in playoff series as the games progressed. Per B-Ref here is BPM by game 1 31 g /7.3 2 30g/5.6 3 30g/8.0 4 30g/6.7 5 29g/4.5 6 16g/4.9 7 7g/4.6 If I do an estimated average just using games, he goes from 6.9 in games 1-4 to a 4.6 in games 5-7. ...

Is BPMw simply last year's BPM (per B-Ref) using Pelton's minutes and a default value for rookies?

8 other teams have started 25-3 with an average year-end total of 66.4 wins, with a low of 61 (10 SAS) and high of 72, with 4 titles.
So 60+ looks real safe.
We do have 3 champ teams since the merger at 16-12 - 04 DET, 06 MIA, 21 MIL - so still hope for a lot of teams.

Knicks with . . . large increase in fta rate and blocks In 1.3 seasons post-Hartenstein, Knicks' team block rate is avg 30% higher when Mitchell Robinson is on the floor. https://www.basketball-reference.com/teams/NYK/2025/on-off/ Add 30% to their next-to-worst 4.0 Blk/100 rate last year (MR hardly...

lol makes me look a lot better. Not good, just not horrendous

This seems to assume that the 5-2 Bulls will henceforth turn into their predicted 33-win selves, and the 2-6 Mavs will in fact play like a 42-win team the rest of the way; with minor "luck" adjustments. The season is already about halfway to that 15-game mark where preseason expectations ...

hi,
can you list who abbreaviation is for?
Thanks

I agree

I do adjust to 1230, but I dont think we should adjust someone else's numbers - I had 1,232 in my numbers, and there is no way for anyone else to tell what 2 wins I wind up deducting to get to the magic number.

I just copied and pasted my numers to Excel and got 1,230, so I'm not sure why you have a different number OKC 69 HOU 58 CLE 55 DEN 52 GSW 51 BOS 50 LAC 50 DAL 50 MIN 48 MEM 48 IND 47 ATL 46 NYK 43 ORL 42 LAL 41 MIL 40 SAS 40 POR 39 PHO 39 MIA 36 CHI 35 Chicago DET 35 SAC 35 PHI 33 NOP 33 TOR 28 BRK...

I followed my math, ... It seems your wins total 1232, which is two too many. Pelton is high by 7, EBET 1 short. Should we adjust them or let them stand? Thanks for checking I copied over the numbers before my rounding CORRECTED ENTRY I'll resubmit, OKC 69 HOU 58 CLE 55 DEN 52 GSW 51 BOS 50 LAC 50 ...

okay, I use the B-Ref abbreviations, but I spelled out the whole team name and hope I remove the confusion we had last year on CHI/Charlotte. I followed my math, making BOS, MEM, IND higher than the consensus, and low on DET, ORL, NYK. Oklahoma City Thunder OKC 69 Houston Rockets HOU 58 Cleveland Ca...

Kevin Pelton's minutes projection for the season. I did use them last year, saved time if nothing else.


https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... id=0#gid=0

Look at your ages - 24, 26, and 28. Most aging curves will have players improving during this whole time period. The teams full of 24 year olds have 3 year guys who may not last longer in the league. The 28 year old teams are (usually) ones with proven players, they aren't going to give too many min...