APBRmetrics

I do adjust to 1230, but I dont think we should adjust someone else's numbers - I had 1,232 in my numbers, and there is no way for anyone else to tell what 2 wins I wind up deducting to get to the magic number.

I just copied and pasted my numers to Excel and got 1,230, so I'm not sure why you have a different number OKC 69 HOU 58 CLE 55 DEN 52 GSW 51 BOS 50 LAC 50 DAL 50 MIN 48 MEM 48 IND 47 ATL 46 NYK 43 ORL 42 LAL 41 MIL 40 SAS 40 POR 39 PHO 39 MIA 36 CHI 35 Chicago DET 35 SAC 35 PHI 33 NOP 33 TOR 28 BRK...

I followed my math, ... It seems your wins total 1232, which is two too many. Pelton is high by 7, EBET 1 short. Should we adjust them or let them stand? Thanks for checking I copied over the numbers before my rounding CORRECTED ENTRY I'll resubmit, OKC 69 HOU 58 CLE 55 DEN 52 GSW 51 BOS 50 LAC 50 ...

okay, I use the B-Ref abbreviations, but I spelled out the whole team name and hope I remove the confusion we had last year on CHI/Charlotte. I followed my math, making BOS, MEM, IND higher than the consensus, and low on DET, ORL, NYK. Oklahoma City Thunder OKC 69 Houston Rockets HOU 58 Cleveland Ca...

Kevin Pelton's minutes projection for the season. I did use them last year, saved time if nothing else.


https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... id=0#gid=0

Look at your ages - 24, 26, and 28. Most aging curves will have players improving during this whole time period. The teams full of 24 year olds have 3 year guys who may not last longer in the league. The 28 year old teams are (usually) ones with proven players, they aren't going to give too many min...

I plan to enter as well, so I will track it here if there is no "Official" contest

I don't think they even do per-100-possessions by per-possession. A player moving from a high-paced team to a low-paced team, for example, does not show a season (or 2-season) total per100 based on his estimated possessions with each team, but rather to his minutes in each place. BPM (and eWins) ar...

A very strange thing happened. In mid Jan. I opened my Excel file to update, and it had reverted to a version saved sometime in Nov. This after updating (and saving) almost every day in the meantime. I searched all thru my computer for another version of the file but never found one. So I blame mic...

FINAL . avg err rmse r^2 . avg err rmse r^2 dtka 7.50 9.7 .46 emin 8.47 10.9 .37 TmTj 7.63 10.0 .44 eExp 8.48 10.7 .42 avgA 7.82 10.1 .41 WShr 8.49 10.3 .39 medi 7.87 11.1 .37 24pr 8.51 10.8 .33 DQin 7.93 10.3 .42 KPel 8.52 10.0 .58 bpmW 8.14 10.0 .43 24py 8.66 11.7 .33 Crow 8.33 10.6 .41 bmgm 9.13...

Who / how many regressed as a separate step? Based on guess or formal analysis? By a standard amount or informed by team specific experience relative to estimated strength? Any other adjustments people want to share / show-off / ask about / discuss? Anybody include coach and / or front office as se...

Striking to me is that Kareem seems to be the only player with a top-250 WS/48 season both before and after the 1973-74 break, aka pre- and post-BPM. https://www.basketball-reference.com/leaders/ws_per_48_season.html https://www.basketball-reference.com/leaders/bpm_season.html These 2 lists of 250 ...

Relatedly, I am pretty sure that replacement level is quite a bit lower than I previously thought. -2 is what was used for VORP, but more recently additional research has shown to me that is quite a bit too high. -3 is probably about right, perhaps even -3.5. This is because better statistics are s...

OK, just curious. If a team BPM is -2.6, and a -2.0 player enters the lineup, does he have a positive impact? Right, the vast majority of NBA players are below the average NBA impact. It's not a bell curve, it's a strongly skewed distribution with relatively few players with very strong positive im...

With closeness of 2-5 and 6 to 9 or 10 in west, almost any matchup are possible. Matchup manipulation hard to do now but might play a factor later. So if 2-5 is one group set with 4 teams and 6-10 a second set with 5 teams, then every team will want to finish as high as possible. 6-10 is obvious wi...