Search found 219 matches

by bbstats
Tue Oct 30, 2018 5:27 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: 2018-19 team win projection contest
Replies: 117
Views: 44933

Re: 2018-19 team win projection contest

While I appreciate the early love, the spreadsheet linking to my win projections is my *LIVE* win projections which is probably why I'm in first.

Here's my actual pre-season projections: https://twitter.com/bbstats/status/1052331590263742465
by bbstats
Thu Apr 13, 2017 8:36 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: 2016-17 Team Win Projection Contest / Discussion
Replies: 213
Views: 127949

Re: 2016-17 Team Win Projection Contest / Discussion

RMSE is the standard and should remain unless voted on prior to the contest

*grumbles about prior 2nd place*
by bbstats
Wed May 04, 2016 5:28 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: 2015-16 Team win projections
Replies: 322
Views: 214113

Re: 2015-16 Team win projections

Just ran my retrodiction and found the following fit on *Adjusted NetRating* (not wins):

0.573 x my BPM projection
0.375 x Jerry's Multiyear + Aging Curve RPM
0.0583 x Expected Teammate Usage
0.107 x Prior yr Usg% x TS%
-6.5


Definitely overfit, but very interesting.
by bbstats
Wed May 04, 2016 4:51 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: 2015-16 Team win projections
Replies: 322
Views: 214113

Re: 2015-16 Team win projections

FWIW, I averaged KP and BMonster's minutes projections for mine.

Long live average error!
by bbstats
Fri Feb 26, 2016 5:38 am
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: 2015-16 Team win projections
Replies: 322
Views: 214113

Re: 2015-16 Team win projections

My RPM predictions vs Vegas:
2014: 20-9-1
2015: I don't know but I won the Avg Error thing at "6" so "very good"
2016 (projected): 22-8-0
by bbstats
Tue Feb 23, 2016 2:49 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: 2015-16 Team win projections
Replies: 322
Views: 214113

Re: 2015-16 Team win projections

haha - I just meant I missed the frequent colorful chart updates.

thanks for the wins update Mike!

EDIT: Though - this looks like average error. After winning the average error but "losing" the contest last year I'd like to see Squared error if possible - let's stick to it :)
by bbstats
Mon Feb 22, 2016 4:33 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: 2015-16 Team win projections
Replies: 322
Views: 214113

Re: 2015-16 Team win projections

Yoooooooo caliban....
Where you at
by bbstats
Fri Feb 19, 2016 6:06 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: Sharing code for RAPM-style player rankings
Replies: 21
Views: 11300

Re: Sharing code for RAPM-style player rankings

Awesome! Question: Why only 22 players in the 1-player-Lasso, for example?
by bbstats
Tue Feb 16, 2016 4:16 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: 2015-16 Team win projections
Replies: 322
Views: 214113

Re: 2015-16 Team win projections

TY Portland TY Boston
by bbstats
Wed Jan 27, 2016 6:40 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: 2015-16 Team win projections
Replies: 322
Views: 214113

Re: 2015-16 Team win projections

Any update? :)
by bbstats
Wed Dec 16, 2015 8:03 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: Kobe Bryant and All-Time Ranking of Players
Replies: 111
Views: 86231

Re: Kobe Bryant and All-Time Ranking of Players

Not sure if anyone's done this yet, but in my opinion the way regular season should be scaled is how it correlates to increasing odds of winning a title.

I.e. Delta % Odds Of Winning Title ~ x1*Regular Season VORP + x2*Playoff VORP
by bbstats
Thu Nov 12, 2015 3:13 am
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: RAPM adjusted for luck?
Replies: 11
Views: 7246

Re: RAPM adjusted for luck?

There's WAY more than meets the eye going on in terms of luck. As I've said before and as we all know, not all points are created equally. Making/missing open shots at absurd rates is definitely a starting point but not the easiest. You might not think of this as luck, but essentially, points that c...
by bbstats
Wed Oct 28, 2015 9:01 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: Which stat predicted the 2015 the best? (Results here)
Replies: 15
Views: 10617

Re: Which stat predicted the 2015 the best? (Results here)

You should try Wins Produced.
by bbstats
Wed Oct 28, 2015 8:25 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: 2015-16 Team win projections
Replies: 322
Views: 214113

Re: 2015-16 Team win projections

Also - SUPER-love the chart. But can we remove 15 Pyth + Regression from the "Max" and "Min" calculation? It covers the plurality of it.