Search found 220 matches

by bbstats
Mon Jan 28, 2019 2:40 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: Wins vs Pythagorean Wins
Replies: 14
Views: 7644

Re: Wins vs Pythagorean Wins

Hi! This is literally all I care about these days (figuring out why and how some teams beat their Net Rating in terms of win%). Some thoughts: 1. Something is awry if Net Rating has a +.107 correlation. How is that possible? Should be removed from the equation really...just want to measure Net Ratin...
by bbstats
Tue Oct 30, 2018 5:27 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: 2018-19 team win projection contest
Replies: 137
Views: 85115

Re: 2018-19 team win projection contest

While I appreciate the early love, the spreadsheet linking to my win projections is my *LIVE* win projections which is probably why I'm in first.

Here's my actual pre-season projections: https://twitter.com/bbstats/status/1052331590263742465
by bbstats
Thu Apr 13, 2017 8:36 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: 2016-17 Team Win Projection Contest / Discussion
Replies: 213
Views: 147036

Re: 2016-17 Team Win Projection Contest / Discussion

RMSE is the standard and should remain unless voted on prior to the contest

*grumbles about prior 2nd place*
by bbstats
Wed May 04, 2016 5:28 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: 2015-16 Team win projections
Replies: 322
Views: 235826

Re: 2015-16 Team win projections

Just ran my retrodiction and found the following fit on *Adjusted NetRating* (not wins):

0.573 x my BPM projection
0.375 x Jerry's Multiyear + Aging Curve RPM
0.0583 x Expected Teammate Usage
0.107 x Prior yr Usg% x TS%
-6.5


Definitely overfit, but very interesting.
by bbstats
Wed May 04, 2016 4:51 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: 2015-16 Team win projections
Replies: 322
Views: 235826

Re: 2015-16 Team win projections

FWIW, I averaged KP and BMonster's minutes projections for mine.

Long live average error!
by bbstats
Fri Feb 26, 2016 5:38 am
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: 2015-16 Team win projections
Replies: 322
Views: 235826

Re: 2015-16 Team win projections

My RPM predictions vs Vegas:
2014: 20-9-1
2015: I don't know but I won the Avg Error thing at "6" so "very good"
2016 (projected): 22-8-0
by bbstats
Tue Feb 23, 2016 2:49 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: 2015-16 Team win projections
Replies: 322
Views: 235826

Re: 2015-16 Team win projections

haha - I just meant I missed the frequent colorful chart updates.

thanks for the wins update Mike!

EDIT: Though - this looks like average error. After winning the average error but "losing" the contest last year I'd like to see Squared error if possible - let's stick to it :)
by bbstats
Mon Feb 22, 2016 4:33 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: 2015-16 Team win projections
Replies: 322
Views: 235826

Re: 2015-16 Team win projections

Yoooooooo caliban....
Where you at
by bbstats
Fri Feb 19, 2016 6:06 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: Sharing code for RAPM-style player rankings
Replies: 21
Views: 12621

Re: Sharing code for RAPM-style player rankings

Awesome! Question: Why only 22 players in the 1-player-Lasso, for example?
by bbstats
Tue Feb 16, 2016 4:16 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: 2015-16 Team win projections
Replies: 322
Views: 235826

Re: 2015-16 Team win projections

TY Portland TY Boston
by bbstats
Wed Jan 27, 2016 6:40 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: 2015-16 Team win projections
Replies: 322
Views: 235826

Re: 2015-16 Team win projections

Any update? :)
by bbstats
Wed Dec 16, 2015 8:03 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: Kobe Bryant and All-Time Ranking of Players
Replies: 111
Views: 90843

Re: Kobe Bryant and All-Time Ranking of Players

Not sure if anyone's done this yet, but in my opinion the way regular season should be scaled is how it correlates to increasing odds of winning a title.

I.e. Delta % Odds Of Winning Title ~ x1*Regular Season VORP + x2*Playoff VORP
by bbstats
Thu Nov 12, 2015 3:13 am
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: RAPM adjusted for luck?
Replies: 11
Views: 8454

Re: RAPM adjusted for luck?

There's WAY more than meets the eye going on in terms of luck. As I've said before and as we all know, not all points are created equally. Making/missing open shots at absurd rates is definitely a starting point but not the easiest. You might not think of this as luck, but essentially, points that c...
by bbstats
Wed Oct 28, 2015 9:01 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: Which stat predicted the 2015 the best? (Results here)
Replies: 15
Views: 12093

Re: Which stat predicted the 2015 the best? (Results here)

You should try Wins Produced.