APBRmetrics

Two more people with Henson low, I don't get it. 24 PER as a sophomore with elite defensive potential ... great size, very athletic, good kid, good rebounder, skilled in the post, decent form on his jumper. If you've got him as a bad pick, I'd like to know why. He'll bulk up and has raise that FT% a...

You're suggesting GSW goes for it now, so same to you. We're both strategizing off a bunch of imperfect measurements. Burks is 2 years younger than Thompson, Udoh is 3 years younger than Monroe. RAPM has standard errors. There's no such thing as demonstrably better for two rookies with the same PER ...

It's just game theory. If you keep your team together and go for the playoffs this year, your team after this season will look like this: PG Curry (who will need to be extended at big money) SG Klay SF Jefferson (who is still owed $11 mil the following year) PF Lee (with 3 years at $15 mil per seaso...

With some editing... The Bulls drafted Rose while having a really, really small chance (1.7%) at getting that first pick. Boston picked Paul Pierce with the 10th pick back in 1998. Nowitzki was the 9th pick in 1998. The Lakers traded for Bryant's draft rights (#13), they gave up starting center Vlad...

It's not just OKC. They're the prime example, but every contender has a superstar they drafted (Bulls, Miami, Boston, Spurs, Mavs, Lakers, OKC) and then built around. Every single one. It's so hard to make it work another way, especially in a small market, especially when your foundation pieces are ...

The bottom line is the economics of the NBA simply favors certain teams, and if you're not one of those elite teams/markets, you just have to live off of scraps. Or maybe you luck out once in a generation by landing a player like Duncan or Howard. That's depressing and not even true. Oklahoma City ...

I just never got the reasoning of trying to be a balanced 45-50 win team without a star. Pacers / Hawks / Bucks / Rockets / Jazz teams ugh... such a painful experience for fans, and it's so easy in the NBA to blow up a team and rebuild with better talent. I didn't realize the Warriors owe the Jazz t...

First of all, awesome of you for doing this, this is something I can learn a lot from. The finding that really surprises me is that zones 6-10 rated much higher than zones 2-3 (and basically 4 too). A couple years ago NBA Hotspots had their shooting % from each zone, and zones 2-4 had a eFG% of arou...

I agree with the pick suggestions, but if the goal is an eventual title, IMO guys like Jeremy Tyler deserve another year or two. There just aren't many prospects with 7'5" wingspans, athleticism, and natural post ability, and Golden State needs guys who could develop into stars, not competent b...

I like the thought grey. I'm trying to find another situation where two players usually sub in for each other, and one of them has produced really poor results, and it creates an odd-looking APM for the other guy. Maybe Jameer Nelson and Chris Duhon this year in Orlando? Both guys have huge APMs des...

I think we're still talking separate things. I dunno, maybe not. Evan was saying Bonner's RAPM isn't necessarily due to sampling error, which I'm fine with. "indeed not much to do with sampling errors" is a different thing entirely. The over- and underrating comes rather from the fact that...

How would you know how "accurate" I interpret the result? Sounds like a really weird statement given the fact that I did not say at any point how much weight I put into the numbers at all. why does vince carter rate so high in this version, or any version, of APM?... why does matt bonner ...

Standard errors are making no sense, because their is a bias introduced by using the ridge regression. And while there will still be over- and underrating of players, multicollinearities and overfitting is basically eliminated by using ridge regression. The over- and underrating comes rather from t...

Those are legitimate questons. And that has indeed not much to do with sampling errors. Let us take a look at Carter. Carter is big for a SG, he does not have problems to compete with any kind of other SG. That helps his defense, especially when guards are trying to post him up. Carter is one of th...

Evan, what's your minutes cutoff for keeping players in the RAPM model?