APBRmetrics

The paper makes it clear (or at least tries to make it clear) that the lists are of players who are underrated or overrated relative to their box score stats. here is what the paper clearly states: In the National Basketball Association (NBA), teams must make choices about which players to acquire,...

@mtamada: Thanks for those formatting comments, much appreciated. 1. I'd tend to agree with @mtamada's interpretation of "overrated." Essentially, SPR gives you both: a) a player ratings vector (like APM does), b) but also gives you a weights vector for box score statistics, which you can ...

Hey,

Here is the latest version of this work: http://arxiv.org/abs/1301.3523

I'll have code online in the near future so that you can run experiments yourself on any years of interest.

Yep. But somehow you don't expect anyone to be able to figure out an algorithm that loses say 70% of its bets. Because if they've discovered such a technique, that means they've also figured out one that wins 70% of its bets. The best you'll do with a bad algorithm is 50% (or something close to this...

I added a bit of binomial testing (open office has a function for doing this, it seems): http://i55.tinypic.com/2hg4ai9.png So I guess we can say that LambdaPM at the very least is doing better than coin-flipping (well, depending on what you set your significance level.) EDIT: No problem. Nokogiri i...

Yep, using Ruby to scrape it. https://docs.google.com/leaf?id=0B8NUaGBnBF1KZjNjOWI4ZTgtNDJhNC00OTA2LTkzOTYtNjFkMjE3YzlmMGFi&hl=en_US&authkey=CMCq34oK You'll need to install Nokogiri (a html/xml parser library) if you want the above code to run though. And I think you can use it to scrape as ...

OK, prompted by a question someone asked on another site, I went ahead and compared LambdaPM's ability to predict the margin of victory for the home team to Vegas. Basically, you can consider the Vegas line as an estimator and see how well the two compare. Of course, LambdaPM "cheats" a bi...

OK, I'll keep the counterpart data but remove the team columns. I emailed hoopdata.com too, asking them to release a CSV of the additional data they track (charges drawn, # of a player's shots blocked, etc) so I can create a master box score table that includes dougstats data, your data, and hoopdat...

Great, thanks. Hrm, how exactly do you track this counterpart data? Do you pick up on LeBron switching from Deng to Rose, for example? You also have some team variables like Team ORB. I should probably delete those columns, as they aren't specific to the individual, I guess? Thanks for the mention o...

@EvanZ: Man if you have that for the 2010-2011 season, that would be awesome. The better a box score matrix R I feed to LambdaPM, the better performance I'll get in the three main metrics I use. I ended up just using box score data from dougstats.com. But I noticed that hoopdata.com for example has ...

^- OK, I'll add the minute cutoff stuff as a pre-processing step to my code. At that point, then others can try this sort of experiment themselves and see what the impact of the different minute thresholds are. "What do you mean by volatility in this context?" I was mainly thinking of the ...

^-- Thanks for the comment. Let me respond: Thanks for sharing the article and the results. I've just given the article a quick first skim but here are a few comments on various points: I am very glad to see a model that incorporates boxscore-based measurement with outside the boxscore impact measur...

Yeah, I'm on an NSF fellowship.

The NSF probably funds a lot of applied statistics work though. At least a few papers I've come across in JASA (Journal of the American Statistical Association) and AAS (Annals of Applied Statistics) received some sort of support from them.

Cool, thanks for taking a look. Yeah, some of the results are a bit surprising and counter-intuitive to me. The offensive rebounding thing especially. Hollinger's PER (and I think statistical +/- also?) for example values ORebs more than DRebs. Yet you'll see certain pretty well-run teams like the H...

Hello folks, I've written a manuscript describing a new technique for estimated player ratings for the 2010-2011. It is basically a variant of the APM model, but incorporating box score information directly into the regression. You can sort of view it as a SPM algorithm that iteratively uses APM rat...