APBRmetrics

A lot. 1) Markets (exchanges) are very efficient. Not in terms of accuracy of prediction but in terms of probabilities. So they might get 40-45% of the games wrong but the market/crowd are very good in giving high probabilities on the games they get right and low probabilities on the games they get ...

Hi everyone, ok here is all my code and data that I have been working on for the last 3-4 years. I do not have much time (nor interest) in pursuing this any more, since my focus has moved on to other things. If someone has any use for it please go ahead and try it out. It is in python. https://githu...

There is a difference between pre-season predictions and extrapolation of current season data, or there should be. Ultimately the predictions will be measured against the actuals. If the in season projections are not well regarded, could just measure against simple season to date performances. Sure...

https://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/page/BPI-Playoff-Odds/espn-nba-basketball-power-index-playoff-odds I am dubious of some of these projections. Toronto, Brooklyn, Houston, OKC, Utah... I am not ESPN predictions are even worse than 538's :lol: I d like to paste a table of expert predictors from the l...

I'm worse now relative to 538 Elo. (Think I used their player based projections last time and not sure if that gets updated.) Actually dont compare (or use) the 538 elo or carmelo predictions. They are pretty poor, consistently predicting below the market. I have been tracking them for the last few...

The first model gives every team in the league the same three point defense probability. This is a kind of default; assume teams *aren't* actually different at defending open threes. This results in a single distribution of plausible theta values (opponent open three point accuracy). Sampling from ...

DSMok1 wrote: ↑Mon Feb 01, 2021 1:04 pm with the variation being solely from variance?

I am not sure what this statement means exactly, but I have a feeling that the work he did has some statistical problems/discrepancies.

Crow wrote: ↑Sun Jan 31, 2021 8:20 pm Mentioned your post to the author at @thecity2 on twitter.

ah sorry. I thought the author was the original poster. I didnt realise

Hi I had a quick look at that exposition (at least only at the first model). I have to say I did not really understand the logic behind some of the model assumptions. Couple of questions (again I only read up to the first model): 1) The data you are modelling seems to be just 3d point percentages. Y...

Nice stuff (has it been smoothed?).

If only I had some time...

But can you detect something that happened before the 27 point run that could be used to predict it beforehand?

So....how does something like this happen? https://i.ibb.co/xKk0GHm/Untitled.jpg From a relatively equal game for the whole of Q1...and then in Q2 they just go on a 27 point lead!! I mean I predicted that game correctly but I could never have predicted that run. Does anyone know what happened there?...

It's definitely not just you. This is certainly a strange start to the season. Although I think it was somewhat predictable after watching games from the covid bubble last season. Players are on edge and team chemistries are getting messed with. Covid is having a massive effect on everything around...

xkonk wrote: ↑Mon Jan 04, 2021 9:37 pm But I am curious why you think that high school academic history/SAT scores aren't dependent on a student's job/financial situation, family issues, work ethic, etc.?

Look at Trump

...or are game results completely out of whack this season? Last season around the same time (70-80 games played in total) the markets were predicting correctly close to 70% of the games. This time around I am only seeing around 50%, and some games are really weird. Many sub 30-20% win chance games ...