APBRmetrics

I'm estimating Novak's unassisted points at less than 5%. As such, I only give him 89% credit for his scoring. I have Jeremy Lin at 80% unassisted scoring, and he gets a factor of 1.04 toward his points. I agree with everything you said except this. Assuming all else is equal (same # of shot attemp...

This is not a recency issue. If it was just a recency issue, I could look at the last 20 or 30 games for each team and compare that rating to the seasonal average. Then I could do a subjective analysis of each team to see if I account for any significant changes and determine what was most likely go...

The recent play of the 76ers has highlighted and potentially significant problem with SRS and other power ratings. Most methods look at a team's entire record to calculate all the power ratings. However, that has a potential problem in that assumes a team was playing at a similar level at all points...

I was having a discussion with a friend the other day about Steven Novak. IMO his extremely high scoring efficiency and ability to help space the floor adds significant value to an offense. However, it can also be argued he's a very limited offensive player and has to be assisted in order to score. ...

EvanZ wrote:http://www.sbrforum.com/nba-basketball/

Thank you very much.

I would like to test a model I am working on to see how well it can mimic Vegas odds for NBA games.

Does anyone know of a place I can get historical spreads on NBA games for this year (further back would be great)?

I've been reviewing some of the data at http://www.nbastuffer.com/2011-2012_NBA_Regular_Season_Rest_Days_Stats.html for how playing B2Bs, 3 of 4, 4 of 5, 1 day rest etc.. have been impacting the results this year. It appears from this data that teams are outperforming expectations on some of suppose...