APBRmetrics

+10000000

Seriously they are incredible, I have no idea how they have the hours in the day to put out the quality research they do.

I'm trying to think of a good way to quantify how inconsistent an offense is and how often it gets in periods of drought.

Would just taking the standard deviation of the time between scores be a good way to measure this? Or is there a better way you can think of?

Hey, sounds like a good cause, I'm curious how effective NLP will be against regexes though because each site has a pretty standard format which makes regexes work well. Anyways, I'm happy to help you get the data, I have a parser for both espn and stats.nba.com play-by-play sites You can email me a...

What measure of player success did you test against? Or was it the same stat, like last seasons PER is not predictive of this season's PER.

Thats an interesting question about how to fix it... 1 shot sets could work I think, like do a short sprint, shoot a free throw, sprint, shoot a free throw.

But a lot of it too is just muscle memory , not sure how to train that other than getting reps in

I did a little analysis on play by play data this morning to find if there are differences between the 1st free throw and the 2nd free throw. The analysis was done on the 2014 season. It turned out that shooting percentages were 4% higher league-wide on the 2nd free throw. Also I pulled out the 5 pl...

Where do ya'll get lineup data from? I've tried to extract it from play by plays, but the data is a little fuzzy because the play by plays don't show who was on the court after each quarter break

You really need to rewatch the last 3 minutes of the 3rd quarter. That is where Bosh's negative plus minus comes from. Look at each play. The breakdown is not Bosh's fault. Sure you can look at all of the data , but in this case the plus minus for Bosh doesn't mean much of anything. 9 points 7 rebou...

I don't think you should look at +/- for 1 game to rate Bosh. plus minus doesn't mean a whole lot over 1 game. If you look at Bosh's game in detail, he basically played 3 seperate short stints. 1st quarter he came in the game up 4 and left up 8. So that was good. 2nd quarter he came in up 8 and left...

My math may be all facacta, but actually the strategies look to be equally farfetched. :) Figure a .333 chance of making a 3 and a .5 chance of making a 2. Figure that with an 80% free throw shooter, there's about a 36% chance of him missing one (1- 0.8 x 0.8). So, the Heat needed a 3 and a 2 plus ...

This is part of game theory; the problem with _always_ going for the 3 is that, once the defense knows this, they will defend 3s like crazy and your % to hit a 3 drops significantly. I would think you have to mix up 2s and 3s here. Yea, you can mix it up during the regular season.. but in a big gam...

Heat down 4 with 41s to play, Boston in possession. Rondo, a particular bad free throw shooter dribbles it up, never gets fouled and takes a shot ~2s before a shot clock violation. I have a hard time believing that was optimal from a Heat standpoint. Don't you have to always foul here, even if the ...

I took the trade data from prosportstransactions.com and put it in a grid so its easy to see which teams trade with each other the most. Rockets and Grizzlies have the tightest relationship. Also, the Magic trade with the rockets the most out of the other teams over the past 6 years. Does it give Mo...

Yea crowder measured pretty short last week... does you system take height into account at all?
Thats always one of the big questions around draft time it seems. You find a good guy but his height isn't ideal for the position.
Would love to see an analysis

Yea its really tough to grade like this because you are only going to be able to find ones that the broadcast team makes a big deal about and replays from a bunch of different angles. Like Kjb said , I think it would be more interesting to have a comprehensive analysis. You could look at the play by...