Search found 303 matches

by colts18
Sun Apr 21, 2019 11:20 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: Reconstructing Box Plus/Minus
Replies: 47
Views: 3903

Re: Reconstructing Box Plus/Minus

Dsmok, One way you can improve the accuracy is to take into account missed games when you adjust a players stat on a team level. That way a player whose team falls off when he is out gets more credit and does not get unfairly penalized for his teams bad results in games he missed. Example: Current B...
by colts18
Wed Apr 26, 2017 1:30 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: Trade Paul George
Replies: 45
Views: 29750

Re: Trade Paul George

J.E. wrote:
Crow wrote:If coaches were in RPM again (occasionally or always) how much of the DRPM decline would stick to McMillan?
The difference between Vogel's and McMillan's estimated defensive impact is ~1.3 per 100 in favor of Vogel
That includes data from the current season
Is there a list for this data?
by colts18
Sat Apr 15, 2017 6:51 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: Can anyone make sense of 538's ELO ratings?
Replies: 10
Views: 6712

Re: Can anyone make sense of 538's ELO ratings?

it probably lines up with a 15-20 game rolling net rtg or rolling srs the results are pretty clearly ridiculous though, and i'm guessing they'll make some revisions along with their win prediction methodology in general this offseason I don't see how a 20 game rolling average is supposed to be more...
by colts18
Sat Apr 15, 2017 6:50 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: Playoff predictions?
Replies: 24
Views: 14057

Re: Playoff predictions?

I get GSW: 92% SAS: 71% HOU: 71% LAC: 66% BOS: 65% CLE: 71% TOR: 64% WAS: 69% using the Pythagorean formula with an exponent of 10.5 - that's what I found to give best prediction results when I studied it years ago Seems like my version expects more upsets. Admittedly, 92% for the Warriors seems lo...
by colts18
Fri Apr 14, 2017 4:51 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: 2017 draft analytics
Replies: 71
Views: 37206

Re: 2017 draft analytics

You don't need high school stats. Have you thought about putting high school recruiting rankings in your model? Might help with predictive ability.
by colts18
Fri Apr 14, 2017 1:28 am
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: Can anyone make sense of 538's ELO ratings?
Replies: 10
Views: 6712

Can anyone make sense of 538's ELO ratings?

Can someone recreate a statistical system that ranks the Nuggets, Blazers, and Heat ahead of the Cavaliers? it even makes less sense when you consider that ELO uses prior year data which should help the Cavaliers. Elo Team 1770 Warriors 1661 Spurs 1636 Clippers 1617 Jazz 1602 Rockets 1600 Raptors 15...
by colts18
Fri Apr 07, 2017 11:42 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: Coaching adjusted plus minus
Replies: 4
Views: 3084

Re: Coaching adjusted plus minus

I hope J.E. updates the Coaching RAPM. At the time, the stat was criticized for liking Scott Brooks so much. We have more time now with Durant, Westbrook, and Harden away from him so I expect his number to decline. But, the Wizards improved with him so he will get credit for that.
by colts18
Wed Dec 28, 2016 4:33 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: Adventures in clutch time
Replies: 6
Views: 4262

Re: Adventures in clutch time

I did a topic on this nearly 3 years ago

viewtopic.php?f=2&t=8575

Clutch play correlates well between two time periods.
by colts18
Tue Nov 08, 2016 5:34 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: Enhanced ESPN NBA Box Score
Replies: 1
Views: 3019

Re: Enhanced ESPN NBA Box Score

That looks nice. Do you have a version for Firefox?
by colts18
Thu Sep 08, 2016 3:57 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: BPM and RPM
Replies: 11
Views: 8261

Re: BPM and RPM

1. Does BPM still have the same coefficients which were found by using 14-year RAPM data?<br abp="722"><br abp="723">2. Are xRAPM and RPM the same or really close? If they are really close where can I find xRAPM results for 2001-2016? 1. Yes. I haven't updated it from that yet, though I'd like to a...
by colts18
Fri May 20, 2016 2:18 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: Kevin Durant has a 0.0 BPM in the playoffs?
Replies: 3
Views: 4539

Re: Kevin Durant has a 0.0 BPM in the playoffs?

Thunder over 10 SRS in the playoffs Did you just add opponents' season SRS to their MOV in playoffs? Or do you find this 'adjusted' SRS someplace? Their MOV is only about +5. I'm using Dsmok's methodology. Their average opponent in the playoffs has been over +5 so you adjust their playoff MOV with ...
by colts18
Thu May 19, 2016 9:05 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: Kevin Durant has a 0.0 BPM in the playoffs?
Replies: 3
Views: 4539

Kevin Durant has a 0.0 BPM in the playoffs?

Can anyone figure out how Durant has a 0.0 BPM in these playoffs? He has decent numbers. He is doing well in the category that BPM loves: Usage, Rebounding x Assists, Team success (Thunder over 10 SRS in the playoffs), 3 point rate, 40 minutes per game. Are steals that important in the formula that ...
by colts18
Tue Feb 09, 2016 5:12 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: Predictive stats for Gambling purposes?
Replies: 1
Views: 2597

Predictive stats for Gambling purposes?

Anyone know any stats out there that are purely predictive? Do you believe its possible to make money gambling using some of the advanced stats out there?
by colts18
Wed Feb 03, 2016 3:53 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: Team Sortable NBA +/-'s
Replies: 26
Views: 12429

Re: Team Sortable NBA +/-'s

Is RPM a 50-50 blend of SPM and RAPM? If so, do you run those 2 separately then average the RAPM (2.1) with the SPM (3.1) to create an RPM (2.6)?