Search found 357 matches

by schtevie
Mon Apr 15, 2019 4:19 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: Reconstructing Box Plus/Minus
Replies: 48
Views: 4061

Re: Reconstructing Box Plus/Minus

Daniel, very interesting stuff. A few questions: (1) If PGs are undervalued in BPM compared to a six-year TOTAL RPM, what positions are correspondingly overvalued? (2) How does this undervaluation divide between O and D (for all positions)? (3) Can you provide summary statistics for average (possess...
by schtevie
Fri Mar 15, 2019 8:32 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: Performance of Celtics draft picks since 2005
Replies: 10
Views: 3651

Re: Performance of Celtics draft picks since 2005

So, today we add the next longest-serving GM (the GM-ish Riley and Paxon, to follow): Sam Presti of OKC. And this is an interesting story. from 2007 to 2014, eight successive drafts where each was actively participated in (i.e. no trading of picks, if I have the story straight, just picking to direc...
by schtevie
Thu Mar 14, 2019 1:31 am
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: Performance of Celtics draft picks since 2005
Replies: 10
Views: 3651

Re: Performance of Celtics draft picks since 2005

Addition of the day, the last of the top-five longest serving GMs (not sure how to handle Pat Riley): Donnie Nelson of the Mavericks, a franchise with (at one time at least) a distinct analytics-heavy reputation. So, how well have they picked in first round since 2005? Well, there were only four yea...
by schtevie
Tue Mar 12, 2019 9:48 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: Performance of Celtics draft picks since 2005
Replies: 10
Views: 3651

Re: Performance of Celtics draft picks since 2005

So, today, let's add the same draft performance measures for the longest serving GM not yet featured: Ernie Grunfeld of the Wizards. Between 2004 and 2014, in the eight out of the eleven drafts where a first round pick was made, he oversaw the selection of the 9.8th best player available! That seems...
by schtevie
Mon Mar 11, 2019 4:59 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: Performance of Celtics draft picks since 2005
Replies: 10
Views: 3651

Re: Performance of Celtics draft picks since 2005

To my understanding, BPM is a cummulative stat, one which estimates how the scoreboard is affected when a player is on the court. VORP incorporates playing time, right? I am less interested in that as it puts to much of a weight on injuries and the subjective beliefs of coaches. As noted, my estimat...
by schtevie
Mon Mar 11, 2019 3:23 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: Performance of Celtics draft picks since 2005
Replies: 10
Views: 3651

Re: Performance of Celtics draft picks since 2005

Now let's add another franchise. How could it not be the Spurs? The Popovich/Buford combo since 1999, I believe. Utilizing the same stats, we find that when they had and utilized first round picks they chose the 3.5th best player, and then forewent (in a slightly convoluted interpretation) 3.2 point...
by schtevie
Sun Mar 10, 2019 7:26 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: Performance of Celtics draft picks since 2005
Replies: 10
Views: 3651

Re: Performance of Celtics draft picks since 2005

Crow, I might add a few words on this aspect of the hometown team, on this drippy, late winter day. Taking a look back to first round picks, beginning in 2003 (what I think is the first Ainge-influenced draft, and we're talking about Ainge here, right?) I chose to organize data a bit differently. I ...
by schtevie
Fri Feb 08, 2019 1:35 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: How bad is Gordon Hayward?
Replies: 17
Views: 7877

Re: How bad is Gordon Hayward?

In the general lineup finder (not via the team pages) the default sort is Net Points.
by schtevie
Fri Feb 08, 2019 3:48 am
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: How bad is Gordon Hayward?
Replies: 17
Views: 7877

Re: How bad is Gordon Hayward?

The calculation of the -12.9 counterfactual is as follows. All B-H-I-T lineups (prior to tonight's game) were a +11 net points in 276 minutes, what implies 1.91 net points per 48 minutes (approximate 100 possessions). The GH-B-H-I-T lineup was a -13 net points in 139.8 minutes, correspondingly a -4....
by schtevie
Thu Feb 07, 2019 9:04 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: How bad is Gordon Hayward?
Replies: 17
Views: 7877

Re: How bad is Gordon Hayward?

Alright, that's a wee bit embarrassing. Aside from having incorrectly transcribed the net effect for one lineup, I presented data as being in terms of per 100 possessions (well 48 minutes, as we are making that assumption) when what was shown was in terms of 1 possession. A factor of 100 mea culpa. ...
by schtevie
Tue Feb 05, 2019 11:04 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: How bad is Gordon Hayward?
Replies: 17
Views: 7877

Re: How bad is Gordon Hayward?

I guess I don't understand some of the above calculations and data. Looking at the four 4-man lineups first shown, I calculate the net points per 100 possessions differential (w/o Hayward - w/ Hayward) for each as: B-H-I-T: +0.13 (that is, playing with any and all other players, this foursome scores...
by schtevie
Sat Sep 15, 2018 6:18 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: New DeanO Pod
Replies: 32
Views: 27884

Re: New DeanO Pod

Crow, apologies for the delay in reply. Not sure why I had clicked on the old link thinking it was the new one....Oh well. And, no, the new podcast contained no discernible predictions to my perception. But having listened agin to the old one, I can list the claims that were of note to me and (more ...
by schtevie
Wed Sep 05, 2018 12:29 am
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: New DeanO Pod
Replies: 32
Views: 27884

Re: New DeanO Pod

rlee, not quite sure why you reposted this year-old link, but I am grateful for the reference and encourage one and all to (re?)listen. There are some implicit predictions (DeanO style, so by no means hard) that merit notice.
by schtevie
Tue Aug 14, 2018 12:09 am
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: "Back then [in New York], there wasn't even analytics. I was going by my gut..."
Replies: 1
Views: 2546

"Back then [in New York], there wasn't even analytics. I was going by my gut..."

Whether bullshitting now or honestly relaying the truth as he saw it then, there are quotes in this article that are both sad and funny, and they speak to the entire enterprise: http://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/2436 ... ork-knicks
by schtevie
Mon Aug 06, 2018 10:22 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: Nylon Calc notice
Replies: 17
Views: 20204

Re: Nylon Calc notice

Before responding point by point to your reply, let me just say that your initial results are interesting, less because of the sign of the effect (i.e. it is reasonable to believe and unsurprising to find, for a bunch of reasons, that a traded player would become less productive relative to remainin...