APBRmetrics

My understanding is the "standard RAPM" prior is a +0.0 and the regression moves you further away from that as more evidence accumulates. The problem, as I understand it, is that for lower minute players, there's less evidence so they get compressed towards +0.0 which looks like "ave...

My understanding is the "standard RAPM" prior is a +0.0 and the regression moves you further away from that as more evidence accumulates. The problem, as I understand it, is that for lower minute players, there's less evidence so they get compressed towards +0.0 which looks like "aver...

Yes.^^ I messed around with age adjustment and decided (again) not to bother. Also "yes" for WShr, perW, and eWin. Today's top-to-bottom spread is smallest yet! Down from 2.47 on Jan 9, to 1.91 now. The whole field has improved since then, by an avg of .60 in MAE: 1.04 KPel .89 DQin .88 C...

This seems to assume that the 5-2 Bulls will henceforth turn into their predicted 33-win selves, and the 2-6 Mavs will in fact play like a 42-win team the rest of the way; with minor "luck" adjustments. The season is already about halfway to that 15-game mark where preseason expectations ...

Interesting. Was this for last season, or for more than one season? I've done it several times but maybe not last year. At ~13 games, more teams end up closer to their 13-game W% than to pre-season guesses. And by December, those guesses tend to be useless. I used every 82 game season (so removed a...

This seems to assume that the 5-2 Bulls will henceforth turn into their predicted 33-win selves, and the 2-6 Mavs will in fact play like a 42-win team the rest of the way; with minor "luck" adjustments. The season is already about halfway to that 15-game mark where preseason expectations ...

Not sure if this would be helpful as a thing to track against, but figured I'd offer it up. Basically built end of season projections that use Vegas adjusted win totals as the prior and then use opponent, HCA adjusted performance, with FT and 3PA luck adjustments (regressing outliers towards league ...

An interesting baseline projection to add might be using the Marcel the Monkey projections that Basketball Reference produces for Win Shares per 48 minutes on their player pages (see, e.g., Jayson Tatum's player page and projected WS/48 of .178 under the "2024-25 Projection" section of his...

Probably not going to get projections done this year, unfortunately. Best of luck to everyone.

Death, taxes, and people getting weird (wrong?) results when running RAPM in R My first guess was that it's just missing an rubber-band effect adjustment. But they're so compressed, it doesn't seem like that would fix the whole issue It looks like the lineups tutorial is in R but that the actual li...

It looks like a formulation of % of team's (TSA + 5*AST) works well for offensive load/attempted creation. Here is the Visualization with the revision made: https://public.tableau.com/views/ofNBAStats/Position2DCreation?%3AshowVizHome=no#2 Thanks for helping steer me the right direction, Kevin! o7

The new methodology is to take % of team's (AST + Pts scored above 0.85*TmTS%) . In other words, the baseline is 85% of the team's true shooting percentage--points scored above this threshold are indicative of creation. Anything less is just...somebody shooting. This really highlights the importanc...

My RMSE and r-squared looking embarrassingly bad at the moment. Yikes.

Even if a player is traded, one can assume he's traded for equal value -- in proficiency * minutes -- so it's a wash in the net wins provided. In the case of Harden, it seems likely his value , by any measure, is not going to be met by another team's offer. Why would one assume this? There's lots o...

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