Search found 21 matches
- Wed Feb 26, 2014 4:36 pm
- Forum: APBRmetrics
- Topic: Help with calculating WARP (from basketball-prospectus)
- Replies: 92
- Views: 97344
Re: Help with calculating WARP (from basketball-prospectus)
Still not quite matching the others ... Haslem: 106.75 [106.37] Wade: 105.45 [104.97] Chalmers: 107.52 [107.06] Battier: 107.39 [106.90] Ok going to see if I can work my way back on one of these guys to see where I went wrong. Let me know which input is bad in this calculation for Chalmers: TmDefRa...
- Wed Feb 26, 2014 4:24 pm
- Forum: APBRmetrics
- Topic: Help with calculating WARP (from basketball-prospectus)
- Replies: 92
- Views: 97344
Re: Help with calculating WARP (from basketball-prospectus)
On RebFactor3 ... Reb and TmMinorPossessions are both at the league level. The rest should be right. LgFTScore is a bit of a mystery. It's .117 in my spreadsheet. Not sure if I accidentally pasted the value over the formula at some point. But using that will match things up. Ok, I think I have it. ...
- Wed Feb 26, 2014 2:22 pm
- Forum: APBRmetrics
- Topic: Help with calculating WARP (from basketball-prospectus)
- Replies: 92
- Views: 97344
Re: Help with calculating WARP (from basketball-prospectus)
Still not quite matching the others ... Haslem: 106.75 [106.37] Wade: 105.45 [104.97] Chalmers: 107.52 [107.06] Battier: 107.39 [106.90] On RebFactor3 ... Reb and TmMinorPossessions are both at the league level. The rest should be right. LgFTScore is a bit of a mystery. It's .117 in my spreadsheet....
- Tue Feb 25, 2014 9:31 pm
- Forum: APBRmetrics
- Topic: Help with calculating WARP (from basketball-prospectus)
- Replies: 92
- Views: 97344
Re: Help with calculating WARP (from basketball-prospectus)
Reb/TmMinorPossessions / ((1 - LgNoScore [Blk% + Stl% + non-steal TO%] - LgFTScore) * (1-LgFG%) + Blk% + LgFTScore * .56 * (1-LgFT%)) I have a few questions on this equation for the RebFactor1 to be used on the defensive side. Let me know if I have the right inputs here Reb = 492 (total player rebo...
- Tue Feb 25, 2014 9:12 pm
- Forum: APBRmetrics
- Topic: Help with calculating WARP (from basketball-prospectus)
- Replies: 92
- Views: 97344
Re: Help with calculating WARP (from basketball-prospectus)
Besides the rebound factor, the other thing I left out of the explanation is that whole mess is multiplied by DRtgMinor, not 100. Making those two changes matches everything up, I think. That was it, thanks Kevin! If I use your Reb Factor, I get 104.33 for LeBron, which I think agrees to your calcu...
- Tue Feb 25, 2014 7:06 pm
- Forum: APBRmetrics
- Topic: Help with calculating WARP (from basketball-prospectus)
- Replies: 92
- Views: 97344
Re: Help with calculating WARP (from basketball-prospectus)
We're good on opponent FG%. Looks like the issue with OppRebOpp is that it should be TmFTAPos * .56 * (1 - LgFT%) instead of that factor involving league-wide FTA%. Basically, it's lower for LeBron because his "team" fouls so rarely. Looks like that did the trick. I now have as follows fo...
- Tue Feb 25, 2014 3:34 pm
- Forum: APBRmetrics
- Topic: Help with calculating WARP (from basketball-prospectus)
- Replies: 92
- Views: 97344
Re: Help with calculating WARP (from basketball-prospectus)
When you refer to FG%, are you referring to this formula from your site? OppFG% = (Teammate TmFGRat/2) / (Lg eFG%/LgFG%) I also came up with .4770 for that input as follows: (1.0379/2)/(.4873/.4479). Which of those numbers is wrong? I see what it is now. The Lg eFG% is actually on *unblocked* shots...
- Mon Feb 24, 2014 9:47 pm
- Forum: APBRmetrics
- Topic: Help with calculating WARP (from basketball-prospectus)
- Replies: 92
- Views: 97344
Re: Help with calculating WARP (from basketball-prospectus)
TmDefRat =(89.74+100*((1-0.7465)*0.4573*0.8775*1.121))/0.96 =105.36 Besides the rebound opportunity aspect, I have .886 for rebound factor 1. Rebound factor 2 is correct.[/quote] Not sure how RebFactor1 could be off since that one seems pretty simple: RebFactor1 = LgReb / ((LgFGA - LgFGM) + .56*(Lg...
- Mon Feb 24, 2014 9:40 pm
- Forum: APBRmetrics
- Topic: Help with calculating WARP (from basketball-prospectus)
- Replies: 92
- Views: 97344
Re: Help with calculating WARP (from basketball-prospectus)
OppReb Opp% =(1-.4770)*(1-.08743-0.1298-0.06051)+0.56*((44,472-27,620)/208,413)+61,001/5040+0.8*10,086/208,413 The first factor should be FG%, not eFG%, so I have it as .447. I also have FTScore as .847 rather than .874. Hmm, now I'm a little confused. Your site has a formula for OppFG% (which I be...
- Fri Feb 21, 2014 8:00 pm
- Forum: APBRmetrics
- Topic: Help with calculating WARP (from basketball-prospectus)
- Replies: 92
- Views: 97344
Re: Help with calculating WARP (from basketball-prospectus)
That changes the OppRebOpp% to 0.4573. Is that close? Thanks. I have 0.4573 as well if I take out TmBLK%. Close to Kevin's calculation but still slightly off. Will probably have to dig in a little more to identify the discrepancy, but since we're close, let's see if we can at least get to the defen...
- Fri Feb 21, 2014 2:25 pm
- Forum: APBRmetrics
- Topic: Help with calculating WARP (from basketball-prospectus)
- Replies: 92
- Views: 97344
Re: Help with calculating WARP (from basketball-prospectus)
Our first discrepancy was LgPOS - I was using Player Turnovers, not Team Turnovers. It would seem to make more sense to use Team Turnovers in this instance as you did, so I changed my formula and got your number of 209,653. No, should always be player turnovers. So I have lower possession totals th...
- Thu Feb 20, 2014 3:49 pm
- Forum: APBRmetrics
- Topic: Help with calculating WARP (from basketball-prospectus)
- Replies: 92
- Views: 97344
Re: Help with calculating WARP (from basketball-prospectus)
With regards to Opponent Individual (Player) turnovers, did you use that in any of your formulas?
- Thu Feb 20, 2014 3:48 pm
- Forum: APBRmetrics
- Topic: Help with calculating WARP (from basketball-prospectus)
- Replies: 92
- Views: 97344
Re: Help with calculating WARP (from basketball-prospectus)
Hopefully Kevin can respond once the trade deadline settles down. Or if the current pace continues, he won't have much work to do. Our first discrepancy was LgPOS - I was using Player Turnovers, not Team Turnovers. It would seem to make more sense to use Team Turnovers in this instance as you did, s...
- Wed Feb 19, 2014 10:44 pm
- Forum: APBRmetrics
- Topic: Help with calculating WARP (from basketball-prospectus)
- Replies: 92
- Views: 97344
Re: Help with calculating WARP (from basketball-prospectus)
TeamPos - SAME 7015.08 Pos - SAME 5086.4 TmBSPos - I HAVE 0.1295 0.1289 LgFTARate - SAME 0.5051 TmFTAPos - I HAVE 0.08464 - DIFFERENCE IS DUE TO LEAGUE POSSESSIONS - I HAVE 208,413 - LET ME KNOW HOW YOU CALCULATED YOUR NUMBER 0.08420 =0.5051*96/5086.4+0.8*0.44*44472/209652.68 (The discrepancy is fro...
- Wed Feb 19, 2014 9:12 pm
- Forum: APBRmetrics
- Topic: Help with calculating WARP (from basketball-prospectus)
- Replies: 92
- Views: 97344
Re: Help with calculating WARP (from basketball-prospectus)
Here's the first few discrepancies and my calculation. Let's start there and let me know your calculations or if you agree with mine: LgFTARate: (.44 x Lg FTA of 44,472)/Lg PF of 38,744 TmFTOPos: (TDF of .145*((OppTOV of 1,107 - TmSTL of 585)/TmOppPos of 7,015.08))+((1-TDF of .145)*((LgTOV of 28,860...