Search found 21 matches

by jkeen39
Wed Feb 26, 2014 4:36 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: Help with calculating WARP (from basketball-prospectus)
Replies: 92
Views: 97344

Re: Help with calculating WARP (from basketball-prospectus)

Still not quite matching the others ... Haslem: 106.75 [106.37] Wade: 105.45 [104.97] Chalmers: 107.52 [107.06] Battier: 107.39 [106.90] Ok going to see if I can work my way back on one of these guys to see where I went wrong. Let me know which input is bad in this calculation for Chalmers: TmDefRa...
by jkeen39
Wed Feb 26, 2014 4:24 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: Help with calculating WARP (from basketball-prospectus)
Replies: 92
Views: 97344

Re: Help with calculating WARP (from basketball-prospectus)

On RebFactor3 ... Reb and TmMinorPossessions are both at the league level. The rest should be right. LgFTScore is a bit of a mystery. It's .117 in my spreadsheet. Not sure if I accidentally pasted the value over the formula at some point. But using that will match things up. Ok, I think I have it. ...
by jkeen39
Wed Feb 26, 2014 2:22 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: Help with calculating WARP (from basketball-prospectus)
Replies: 92
Views: 97344

Re: Help with calculating WARP (from basketball-prospectus)

Still not quite matching the others ... Haslem: 106.75 [106.37] Wade: 105.45 [104.97] Chalmers: 107.52 [107.06] Battier: 107.39 [106.90] On RebFactor3 ... Reb and TmMinorPossessions are both at the league level. The rest should be right. LgFTScore is a bit of a mystery. It's .117 in my spreadsheet....
by jkeen39
Tue Feb 25, 2014 9:31 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: Help with calculating WARP (from basketball-prospectus)
Replies: 92
Views: 97344

Re: Help with calculating WARP (from basketball-prospectus)

Reb/TmMinorPossessions / ((1 - LgNoScore [Blk% + Stl% + non-steal TO%] - LgFTScore) * (1-LgFG%) + Blk% + LgFTScore * .56 * (1-LgFT%)) I have a few questions on this equation for the RebFactor1 to be used on the defensive side. Let me know if I have the right inputs here Reb = 492 (total player rebo...
by jkeen39
Tue Feb 25, 2014 9:12 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: Help with calculating WARP (from basketball-prospectus)
Replies: 92
Views: 97344

Re: Help with calculating WARP (from basketball-prospectus)

Besides the rebound factor, the other thing I left out of the explanation is that whole mess is multiplied by DRtgMinor, not 100. Making those two changes matches everything up, I think. That was it, thanks Kevin! If I use your Reb Factor, I get 104.33 for LeBron, which I think agrees to your calcu...
by jkeen39
Tue Feb 25, 2014 7:06 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: Help with calculating WARP (from basketball-prospectus)
Replies: 92
Views: 97344

Re: Help with calculating WARP (from basketball-prospectus)

We're good on opponent FG%. Looks like the issue with OppRebOpp is that it should be TmFTAPos * .56 * (1 - LgFT%) instead of that factor involving league-wide FTA%. Basically, it's lower for LeBron because his "team" fouls so rarely. Looks like that did the trick. I now have as follows fo...
by jkeen39
Tue Feb 25, 2014 3:34 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: Help with calculating WARP (from basketball-prospectus)
Replies: 92
Views: 97344

Re: Help with calculating WARP (from basketball-prospectus)

When you refer to FG%, are you referring to this formula from your site? OppFG% = (Teammate TmFGRat/2) / (Lg eFG%/LgFG%) I also came up with .4770 for that input as follows: (1.0379/2)/(.4873/.4479). Which of those numbers is wrong? I see what it is now. The Lg eFG% is actually on *unblocked* shots...
by jkeen39
Mon Feb 24, 2014 9:47 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: Help with calculating WARP (from basketball-prospectus)
Replies: 92
Views: 97344

Re: Help with calculating WARP (from basketball-prospectus)

TmDefRat =(89.74+100*((1-0.7465)*0.4573*0.8775*1.121))/0.96 =105.36 Besides the rebound opportunity aspect, I have .886 for rebound factor 1. Rebound factor 2 is correct.[/quote] Not sure how RebFactor1 could be off since that one seems pretty simple: RebFactor1 = LgReb / ((LgFGA - LgFGM) + .56*(Lg...
by jkeen39
Mon Feb 24, 2014 9:40 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: Help with calculating WARP (from basketball-prospectus)
Replies: 92
Views: 97344

Re: Help with calculating WARP (from basketball-prospectus)

OppReb Opp% =(1-.4770)*(1-.08743-0.1298-0.06051)+0.56*((44,472-27,620)/208,413)+61,001/5040+0.8*10,086/208,413 The first factor should be FG%, not eFG%, so I have it as .447. I also have FTScore as .847 rather than .874. Hmm, now I'm a little confused. Your site has a formula for OppFG% (which I be...
by jkeen39
Fri Feb 21, 2014 8:00 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: Help with calculating WARP (from basketball-prospectus)
Replies: 92
Views: 97344

Re: Help with calculating WARP (from basketball-prospectus)

That changes the OppRebOpp% to 0.4573. Is that close? Thanks. I have 0.4573 as well if I take out TmBLK%. Close to Kevin's calculation but still slightly off. Will probably have to dig in a little more to identify the discrepancy, but since we're close, let's see if we can at least get to the defen...
by jkeen39
Fri Feb 21, 2014 2:25 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: Help with calculating WARP (from basketball-prospectus)
Replies: 92
Views: 97344

Re: Help with calculating WARP (from basketball-prospectus)

Our first discrepancy was LgPOS - I was using Player Turnovers, not Team Turnovers. It would seem to make more sense to use Team Turnovers in this instance as you did, so I changed my formula and got your number of 209,653. No, should always be player turnovers. So I have lower possession totals th...
by jkeen39
Thu Feb 20, 2014 3:49 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: Help with calculating WARP (from basketball-prospectus)
Replies: 92
Views: 97344

Re: Help with calculating WARP (from basketball-prospectus)

With regards to Opponent Individual (Player) turnovers, did you use that in any of your formulas?
by jkeen39
Thu Feb 20, 2014 3:48 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: Help with calculating WARP (from basketball-prospectus)
Replies: 92
Views: 97344

Re: Help with calculating WARP (from basketball-prospectus)

Hopefully Kevin can respond once the trade deadline settles down. Or if the current pace continues, he won't have much work to do. Our first discrepancy was LgPOS - I was using Player Turnovers, not Team Turnovers. It would seem to make more sense to use Team Turnovers in this instance as you did, s...
by jkeen39
Wed Feb 19, 2014 10:44 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: Help with calculating WARP (from basketball-prospectus)
Replies: 92
Views: 97344

Re: Help with calculating WARP (from basketball-prospectus)

TeamPos - SAME 7015.08 Pos - SAME 5086.4 TmBSPos - I HAVE 0.1295 0.1289 LgFTARate - SAME 0.5051 TmFTAPos - I HAVE 0.08464 - DIFFERENCE IS DUE TO LEAGUE POSSESSIONS - I HAVE 208,413 - LET ME KNOW HOW YOU CALCULATED YOUR NUMBER 0.08420 =0.5051*96/5086.4+0.8*0.44*44472/209652.68 (The discrepancy is fro...
by jkeen39
Wed Feb 19, 2014 9:12 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: Help with calculating WARP (from basketball-prospectus)
Replies: 92
Views: 97344

Re: Help with calculating WARP (from basketball-prospectus)

Here's the first few discrepancies and my calculation. Let's start there and let me know your calculations or if you agree with mine: LgFTARate: (.44 x Lg FTA of 44,472)/Lg PF of 38,744 TmFTOPos: (TDF of .145*((OppTOV of 1,107 - TmSTL of 585)/TmOppPos of 7,015.08))+((1-TDF of .145)*((LgTOV of 28,860...