APBRmetrics

Separately, re: the discussion about the Basketball-Reference win projections; they look to be adding approximately 7-8 games of league average performance to each team's projected SRS the reason of the season via Bayesian padding. Based on my testing, this number is well calibrated if you come into...

Feel free to check your numbers and report any discrepancies. The bottom row is average deviation from 41, and we are in order of boldest to most timid. tm DQin medi EBET Crow KPel DRKO EExp Mgoo dtka eWin bpmW WShr perW Walr Atl 46 45.4 46.5 39 44.3 42.5 48.0 42 46 43.1 43.5 42.2 43.8 42.1 Bos 50 ...

The DARKO entry has been added here: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1ACK8w0d2wbKy-E4dT02GKJ31NyG3w0iBw3GgXo0Kz-Y/edit?gid=2061110590#gid=2061110590 With the understanding that I am late, I have a slight fix to the DARKO projections, discussed (and screenshotted here): https://x.com/kmedved/...

The DARKO entry has been added here: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... 2061110590

I am still cooking the DARKO win projections, but in the meantime, a friend is working on a new modeling system, and wishes to submit projections using it. I am submitting on their behalf. Call it the Walrus model for these purposes. https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1ACK8w0d2wbKy-E4dT02GKJ31Ny...

Crow wrote: ↑Tue Apr 29, 2025 7:28 pm It was a good performance.

Pre-season adjustments by player and / or team?

Preseason adjustments are done at the team level, but weighted by the number of minutes played by players, so if you underperform without playing any of your starters, there's less weight given.

KMedved, what ws the final error for Darko? As linked before, the projections are here: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1UIU0Wse3qKbcXRQSufA1B4qd7Tt2H_tgg1o1ewMw1ZM/edit?gid=235611189#gid=235611189, and the final results were: 1) 0.533 R^2 2) 7.24 MAE 3) 9.15 RMSE I generally think R^2 is th...

It's the same system along the way, with some incremental improvements here and there. The big thing I've done the last few years is incorporating more preseason data, but there's no other major changes recently. I forget when exactly I launched DARKO. Before DARKO, I was just using RAPM with an agi...

Planning to score your projections when final results are in? Post here? Sure, I'll post them when finished. The spreadsheet has live scoring (pulling from BBR for now) as well, although to reiterate, I agree with the concept that projections that weren't entered here shouldn't "count" (f...

What’s the difference between the LEBRON and EPM projections and the advanced model and Vegas advanced model ones? Sorry about that - those aren't mine. My projections are on the "DARKO wins" tab. @Knarsu3 asked me to add his projections to the spreadsheet as well for scoring purposes, bu...

I posted the DARKO projections on Twitter, and they're available here: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1UIU0Wse3qKbcXRQSufA1B4qd7Tt2H_tgg1o1ewMw1ZM/edit?gid=235611189#gid=235611189), but I don't actually mind a standard that they need to posted/linked here to be included. It's fairly low cost...

1) Yes - DARKO is always a projection. The historic trajectory is a snapshot of where DARKO projected a guy to be as of that game. I don't "go backwards" and update with "well, in retrospect, this uptick in performance was more sustainable than DARKO thought." The LOESS smoothing...

re: Updates - I run them daily, but sometimes the linkage to the the Shiny App breaks (I am not gifted with front end web dev stuff, and my partner on the app is often busy). The Google Sheet link here will update daily and is more reliable - just without the fun visuals: https://docs.google.com/spr...

I am now more awake to full Darko's large lead over the 2 blends being almost entirely based on preseason. Darko without preseason is just on par with the 2 blends. I don't know off hand how much other metrics use preseason. If they cared about losing to DARKO they might either monitor DARKO with p...

Generally, while I'm not gonna pretend I'm not thrilled with how well DARKO is performing here, there is just a ton of noise in any single-year projection. The preseason model is doing incredibly well because it was super down on Portland for instance, which was largely plagued by a Damian Lillard i...