I'm a massive draft junkie who loves advanced metrics and projection models on prospects. James Brocato (http://www.shutupandjam.net
) was my go-to guy for this, i've never trusted a prospect formula more than that one. But then he got hired by Dallas. Bye bye James. Anybody know of any other great prospect projection models around?
I'll have one done around June. James & I have chatted on Twitter - we seem to have similar approaches. Difference is I use my ratings that are already adjusted for pace, SoS, playing time (relating to team quality), etc. broken down into all the minutiae before I find comps and project NBA career curves. If you liked/loved his stuff - you'll probably like mine. Maybe not as much as his - who knows, maybe more. We'll see.
If you don't know - I do rank ALL the D1 players, feel free to check in and peruse the results ( http://www.hoopsnerd.com
) . There tends to be a pretty solid parallel between my college performance ratings and future pro prospects (kinda like a AA or AAA minor leaguer with great OPS+ projecting well for being at least a decent hitter at the MLB level, especially if they are younger). This last draft - 22 of my top 23 draftable rated players (a number being small/mid majors) were actually drafted.
I'll have all historical ratings dating back to 96-97 done & posted before the draft model gets done - I'm currently attempting to clean historical stats when I have the time (including having proper player class from year to year) before I rate and post all the results.
Wow, this sounds amazing. Exactly what i'm looking for. I'll definitely be following your site closely. Do you think you'll be done before the NBA draft?
Interesting that you and James have been in touch. He has had some really great adjustments to his model over time. Can't wait to see you pick up where he left off!
Sometimes a player who is great in college, their game wont translate to the NBA well for whatever reason. What measure do you have to detect/project that?
Let me know if there is anything i can do to help with the site, or research, or admin work, or whatever. Happy to help this cause.