2016-17 Power Ratings

[shadow]

Crazy early power ratings using ridge regression, adjusted for HCA. Using MOV from 2016-17 games only. No preseason influence.

Team / Rating / Expected Wins

Code: Select all

LAC	7.39	59.75
ATL	3.57	50.05
SAS	3.47	49.80
CHA	3.27	49.30
CLE	2.80	48.11
UTA	2.74	47.94
OKC	2.31	46.85
CHI	2.29	46.80
GSW	1.63	45.13
TOR	1.61	45.09
LAL	1.57	44.97
HOU	1.20	44.03
DEN	0.81	43.06
DET	0.77	42.95
MIN	0.22	41.54
MIL	0.21	41.53
BOS	-0.03	40.91
POR	-0.06	40.84
MIA	-0.45	39.84
IND	-1.77	36.49
SAC	-1.80	36.41
BRK	-1.85	36.28
DAL	-2.25	35.27
WAS	-3.01	33.34
NYK	-3.04	33.27
PHX	-3.08	33.18
MEM	-3.60	31.86
NOP	-3.86	31.18
ORL	-4.77	28.88
PHI	-6.27	25.06

Disclaimer: Don't wager using these unless you enjoy losing money.

[shadow]

Update through games on 11/12:

Code: Select all

Team  Rating Exp Wins
LAC	8.91	63.64
ATL	4.93	54.57
SAS	3.94	52.00
GSW	3.85	51.75
UTA	3.55	50.95
CHA	3.10	49.72
CLE	3.06	49.64
TOR	2.81	48.94
LAL	2.58	48.30
CHI	2.35	47.65
OKC	1.87	46.32
HOU	1.53	45.36
DET	0.54	42.53
BOS	0.08	41.24
MIN	-0.28	40.21
MIL	-0.48	39.63
BRK	-1.11	37.83
MIA	-1.30	37.30
POR	-1.44	36.91
DEN	-1.80	35.87
DAL	-1.88	35.66
WAS	-1.92	35.55
SAC	-2.10	35.03
IND	-2.45	34.06
PHX	-3.51	31.14
NYK	-3.71	30.63
MEM	-3.93	30.04
NOP	-4.69	28.05
ORL	-6.09	24.55
PHI	-6.41	23.80

[Crow]

At this point I would say that only 8-9 teams max have any shot at the title. Almost all the probability with 5 teams.

With the top teams, they seem to generally only have one "Factor" in bottom ten. Raptors and Jazz have 2. Warriors 3 (own turnovers, OReb and DReb). Spurs none.

[shadow]

For title contention, I don't see anyone other than maybe Toronto and a healthy Boston challenging Cleveland in the East. However, if Toronto (15th) and Boston (21st) don't improve their defense, then Cleveland will make short work of them in the playoffs. Atlanta (20th) and Chicago (25th) both have had easy schedules and should fall off their current pace a bit as the schedule starts to even out.

In the West it's GSW, SAS, LAC and no one else for title contention. However, if GSW doesn't find a way to improve their defense (24th in DRtg) they will be very vulnerable to SAS or LAC in the playoffs. Since 1986, only 3 teams have finished outside the top 10 in DRtg and won the title, compared to 5 for ORtg. The Warriors have also played the easiest schedule so far by SRS, so it's hard to see them improving much on defense unless they make a trade. Zaza Pachulia literally can't jump and is a huge downgrade in rim protection compared to Bogut and Ezeli. Teams are shooting 62.5% at the rim when Pachulia is the closest defender to the rim. Bogut is at 50% so far this year by comparison.

In terms of other WC potential contenders, Houston doesn't have the defense (26th in DRtg), Utah doesn't have the offense (15th in ORtg) and OKC doesn't have the offense (20th in ORtg) since they're too one dimensional relying on Westbrook.

Ratings through 11/19:

Code: Select all

Team Rating Exp Wins
LAC	8.74	63.32
GSW	4.82	54.29
ATL	4.72	54.04
SAS	4.44	53.32
CHI	4.03	52.23
CLE	3.64	51.20
HOU	2.94	49.30
CHA	2.73	48.71
TOR	2.54	48.18
UTA	2.02	46.75
OKC	1.13	44.21
MIN	0.75	43.16
LAL	0.68	42.93
MIA	0.27	41.77
MEM	-0.09	40.76
DET	-0.11	40.70
BOS	-0.36	39.98
DEN	-1.39	37.04
MIL	-1.47	36.82
WAS	-2.02	35.26
SAC	-2.08	35.08
IND	-2.57	33.73
NYK	-2.82	33.04
BRK	-3.01	32.52
POR	-3.31	31.68
NOP	-3.71	30.63
PHX	-4.13	29.50
DAL	-4.27	29.12
ORL	-5.34	26.40
PHI	-6.79	22.90

[shadow]

Ratings as of 11/24 below.

Since 11/19:
Biggest jumps: GSW, NOP, BOS
Biggest drops: ATL, CHA, OKC, MIN, LAL, MIA, IND, BRK

Code: Select all

Team  Rating Exp Wins
LAC	9.17	64.16
GSW	8.07	61.93
SAS	4.47	53.38
CHI	3.87	51.80
CLE	3.75	51.50
TOR	3.21	50.04
ATL	2.87	49.10
HOU	2.27	47.44
UTA	2.15	47.10
CHA	1.36	44.87
BOS	0.91	43.59
MEM	0.88	43.51
DET	0.70	42.99
OKC	-0.18	40.49
MIN	-0.71	38.97
DEN	-0.75	38.87
LAL	-1.20	37.58
NOP	-1.23	37.48
SAC	-1.25	37.44
MIA	-1.39	37.03
MIL	-1.47	36.80
NYK	-2.00	35.30
WAS	-2.10	35.03
POR	-2.14	34.91
PHX	-3.57	31.00
IND	-3.95	29.97
DAL	-4.28	29.12
BRK	-5.04	27.14
ORL	-5.57	25.82
PHI	-6.83	22.82

[shadow]

Clippers falling fast thanks to back to back losses to DET and IND. Warriors claim top spot for first time this season. Sixers and Nets (in reality, the Celtics) are neck and neck for best lottery odds.

Teams that may climb as schedule evens out: TOR, DAL, LAL, DEN
Teams that may fall as schedule evens out: CHI, GSW, CLE, MIL, ORL

Ratings through games of 11/27:

Code: Select all

Team  Rating Exp Wins
GSW	8.84	63.50
LAC	7.30	60.25
SAS	5.08	54.96
CLE	4.84	54.34
CHI	4.18	52.62
TOR	3.52	50.88
HOU	3.40	50.56
UTA	3.13	49.81
ATL	1.31	44.75
CHA	1.24	44.53
BOS	0.71	43.04
DET	0.69	42.97
OKC	0.63	42.79
MEM	0.31	41.89
MIN	-0.47	39.64
DEN	-0.67	39.08
MIA	-0.92	38.37
LAL	-1.14	37.75
SAC	-1.20	37.59
MIL	-1.51	36.70
NYK	-1.89	35.61
IND	-2.18	34.80
NOP	-2.26	34.57
POR	-2.33	34.40
WAS	-2.42	34.15
PHX	-4.32	29.00
DAL	-4.86	27.61
ORL	-5.81	25.23
BRK	-6.40	23.81
PHI	-6.79	22.90

[Mike G]

Do these not take SOS into account?
Do they have any advantages over the b-r.com ratings?

What about recency of results? Going into the playoffs, it would be nice to get ratings that don't weigh game 5 as heavily as game 75.

[shadow]

Sorry, should have provided more detail when initially posting the ratings.

Yes, they do take SoS into account. I'm just not providing a separate SoS rating for each team (like B-R does for SRS) at the moment. However, I could pretty easily add that into the code. Although by the end of the season the SoS differences between teams are pretty negligible.

The b-r.com SRS ratings don't adjust for HCA as far as I'm aware, whereas these ratings do adjust for HCA. The MOV for each game is adjusted by adding 2.5 points to the road team's score before calculating the ratings. The SRS ratings also use OLS, while my ratings use ridge regression (lamba of ~7 found using past few seasons via CV) which seems to help diminish the affect of blowouts and reduce over-fitting that you might see with SRS via OLS.

At the moment all games are weighted equally. However, I can easily add a weighting factor that puts more weight on recent games and publish two sets of ratings. Right now there probably wouldn't be a significant difference between them, but I'm sure as the season progresses they would diverge a bit.

[Mike G]

Very cool, thanks.
This is what prompted the question about SoS:

Teams that may climb as schedule evens out: TOR, DAL, LAL, DEN
Teams that may fall as schedule evens out: CHI, GSW, CLE, MIL, ORL

If their rating takes into account their SoS, why would it change as their SoS changes?

One could consider retrodicting past playoffs by various weighting schemes on the games: Reducing blowout effects (some fractional root of MoV?), recency, etc.

[shadow]

Since the rating is a function of both MOV (adjusted for HCA) and SoS, it's possible that a team with a very weak SoS and a propensity to run up the score will still have a slightly inflated rating despite the ridge regression's best attempt to diminish the affect of blowouts. So if their average MOV declines by more than their SoS rises as their schedule gets harder, their overall rating would decline.

[shadow]

A look at how much teams are over/under-performing their Vegas projected wins, as compared to their expected wins derived from the ratings in this thread.

A positive deviation means the team is outperforming Vegas' expectations. A negative deviation means the team is under-performing.

Top outperformers: CHI, LAL, HOU, LAC
Top underperformers: ORL, POR, DAL, IND, BOS, WAS

Everyone else is within +/- 4 wins of their expected win total.

Code: Select all

Team  Deviation
CHI	14.12
LAL	13.25
HOU	9.06
LAC	6.75
MIA	3.87
SAC	3.59
BRK	3.31
MIL	2.20
DEN	2.08
CHA	2.03
ATL	1.25
UTA	0.81
TOR	0.38
MEM	-0.61
OKC	-0.71
MIN	-0.86
PHX	-1.00
DET	-1.53
PHI	-1.60
CLE	-2.16
NOP	-2.43
NYK	-2.89
GSW	-3.00
SAS	-3.54
WAS	-8.35
BOS	-9.46
IND	-9.70
DAL	-10.89
POR	-11.10
ORL	-12.27

[shadow]

Ratings through 12/1

Unweighted Version:

Code: Select all

Team  Rating Exp Wins
GSW	8.22	62.24
LAC	7.40	60.48
TOR	4.35	53.09
SAS	4.22	52.74
UTA	3.62	51.15
CHI	3.59	51.06
CLE	3.33	50.35
HOU	3.25	50.14
DET	2.09	46.93
OKC	1.24	44.54
ATL	1.21	44.45
CHA	1.00	43.85
BOS	0.60	42.71
MIL	0.09	41.26
MIA	-0.54	39.44
DEN	-0.88	38.48
MEM	-0.97	38.22
MIN	-1.13	37.78
SAC	-1.21	37.55
LAL	-1.29	37.31
NOP	-1.63	36.34
POR	-1.72	36.11
NYK	-2.00	35.31
WAS	-2.49	33.96
IND	-2.97	32.63
PHX	-4.08	29.64
ORL	-4.53	28.45
DAL	-4.98	27.30
BRK	-6.27	24.12
PHI	-7.52	21.27

Weighted Version:

Code: Select all

Team  Rating Exp Wins
GSW	7.54	60.77
LAC	6.48	58.38
TOR	3.89	51.86
SAS	3.59	51.05
UTA	3.30	50.29
CHI	3.21	50.03
HOU	2.92	49.25
CLE	2.86	49.09
DET	1.89	46.38
OKC	1.13	44.22
ATL	0.91	43.60
CHA	0.81	43.33
BOS	0.55	42.58
MIL	0.28	41.80
MIA	-0.51	39.53
MEM	-0.80	38.71
DEN	-0.88	38.50
MIN	-1.05	38.00
SAC	-1.06	37.98
NOP	-1.31	37.27
LAL	-1.35	37.16
POR	-1.54	36.61
NYK	-1.74	36.05
WAS	-2.16	34.86
IND	-2.58	33.70
PHX	-3.59	30.95
ORL	-3.84	30.28
DAL	-4.58	28.31
BRK	-5.76	25.35
PHI	-6.63	23.28

[shadow]

Updated through games played on 12/3. SoS column added which is the average rating of opponents faced thus far.

Teams with the most unbalanced schedules so far which have been in their favor: CHI, MIL, GSW, IND, ORL (not a good sign considering their performance thus far).

Teams with most unbalanced schedules so far which have not been in their favor: DEN, DAL, LAL (surprising given they're 2nd in outperforming Vegas by these ratings).

Teams outperforming Vegas the most by comparing Vegas O/U to Exp Wins:

HOU - combination of adding shooters, new system and less chemistry issues I think
LAL - Walton a good upgrade over Scott, better system, will see if they can sustain
CHI - easiest schedule in the league so far, think they will come down to earth a bit
LAC - only 20th toughest schedule so far so may come down to earth a bit
TOR - big surprise to me since their schedule will likely only get easier; but don't think their OE (tied 1st) is sustainable since they were only 12th in eFG% last year and haven't made any major roster changes
MIL - schedule will catch up to them I think as it gets harder
DET - surprising given they've missed RJ and have 4th toughest SoS

Teams under-performing Vegas the most:

IND - not a big shock, McMillian big downgrade from Vogel and lost some key pieces
BOS - injuries hurt them early but still don't think they're 52 win caliber
POR - awful defense, not a shock they fell off. Evan Turner awful signing and terrible fit, worst in all of RPM out of 419 eligible players
WAS - maybe Scott Brooks was legitimately to blame for OKC's shortcomings; this team has 42 win talent but can't seem to figure out how to win
DAL - injuries but not a total shock they've fallen off after Barnes singing
ORL - weird collection of players. hard to be good when Fournier is your top guy and don't have many other offensive weaopons
ATL - in a bit of a tailspin without Millsap, should right the ship I think
CLE - defense slacking (18th), maybe some championship hangover. slightly below avg SoS so not like they've played a murderer's row so far
SAS - high expectations, but defense has fallen off substantially (1st to 12th). Tim Duncan's loss on defense bigger than most people thought it would be it seems. however, have played 6th toughest schedule so far so have chance to turn things around a bit

Unweighted version:

Code: Select all

Team  Rating Exp Wins SoS
GSW	8.58	62.98	-1.03
LAC	7.97	61.72	-0.17
TOR	6.62	58.70	0.51
SAS	4.11	52.46	0.57
HOU	3.93	51.97	0.47
UTA	3.50	50.83	-0.15
DET	3.44	50.66	0.72
CLE	3.35	50.41	-0.11
CHI	2.37	47.73	-1.40
OKC	1.40	44.99	0.15
CHA	0.69	42.97	-0.57
BOS	0.45	42.30	-0.49
MIL	0.17	41.49	-1.09
MIA	-0.78	38.76	0.44
MEM	-0.87	38.52	-0.19
MIN	-0.91	38.39	-0.64
SAC	-1.17	37.66	0.47
DEN	-1.28	37.34	1.52
POR	-1.53	36.65	0.36
ATL	-1.53	36.63	-0.31
NYK	-1.79	35.89	0.62
NOP	-2.14	34.91	0.25
LAL	-2.30	34.49	1.06
WAS	-2.35	34.33	-0.11
IND	-3.17	32.08	-1.01
DAL	-3.80	30.38	1.44
ORL	-3.94	29.99	-0.99
PHX	-4.65	28.14	0.05
BRK	-6.28	24.09	0.35
PHI	-8.09	20.03	-0.06

Weighted version:

Code: Select all

Team  Rating Exp Wins SoS
GSW	7.18	59.98	-1.03
LAC	6.38	58.13	-0.17
TOR	5.47	55.93	0.51
HOU	3.19	49.99	0.47
SAS	3.12	49.78	0.57
UTA	2.88	49.14	-0.15
DET	2.84	49.03	0.72
CLE	2.57	48.27	-0.11
CHI	1.92	46.45	-1.40
OKC	1.13	44.23	0.15
CHA	0.50	42.43	-0.57
BOS	0.44	42.27	-0.49
MIL	0.39	42.11	-1.09
MEM	-0.64	39.18	-0.19
MIA	-0.69	39.03	0.44
MIN	-0.72	38.93	-0.64
SAC	-0.94	38.31	0.47
POR	-1.25	37.43	0.36
DEN	-1.27	37.36	1.52
NYK	-1.42	36.94	0.62
ATL	-1.59	36.47	-0.31
NOP	-1.66	36.26	0.25
WAS	-1.82	35.83	-0.11
LAL	-2.16	34.87	1.06
IND	-2.40	34.19	-1.01
ORL	-2.86	32.91	-0.99
DAL	-3.17	32.08	1.44
PHX	-3.77	30.45	0.05
BRK	-5.18	26.79	0.35
PHI	-6.46	23.67	-0.06

For convenience here is list of teams from hardest to easiest schedule so far. Differences between weighted and unweighted are negligible so just providing the unweighted version here:

Code: Select all

DEN
DAL
LAL
DET
NYK
SAS
TOR
HOU
SAC
MIA
POR
BRK
NOP
OKC
PHX
PHI
WAS
CLE
UTA
LAC
MEM
ATL
BOS
CHA
MIN
ORL
IND
GSW
MIL
CHI

[shadow]

Through 12/7

Unweighted:

Code: Select all

Team  Rating Exp Wins SoS
GSW	9.85	65.45	-0.89
LAC	6.61	58.68	0.11
TOR	6.42	58.24	0.85
HOU	4.79	54.23	0.34
CLE	4.75	54.11	0.08
SAS	4.44	53.31	0.42
UTA	3.31	50.30	-0.65
DET	2.87	49.11	0.64
CHI	1.77	46.04	-1.23
BOS	1.61	45.60	-0.41
OKC	1.44	45.11	-0.23
CHA	1.16	44.32	-0.64
MIL	0.40	42.16	-0.75
SAC	-0.39	39.90	0.03
MEM	-1.16	37.69	-0.93
MIN	-1.32	37.24	-0.40
ATL	-1.41	36.97	-0.26
POR	-1.44	36.91	0.36
DEN	-1.45	36.85	0.67
MIA	-1.47	36.81	0.28
NYK	-2.04	35.21	0.67
NOP	-2.35	34.33	0.25
WAS	-2.56	33.76	-0.46
IND	-2.59	33.66	-0.34
LAL	-3.25	31.85	1.41
ORL	-3.97	29.93	-0.82
DAL	-4.93	27.41	1.52
PHX	-5.00	27.24	0.16
BRK	-6.17	24.37	0.11
PHI	-7.94	20.34	0.00

Weighted:

Code: Select all

Team  Rating Exp Wins SoS
GSW	9.90	65.54	-0.89
TOR	6.42	58.24	0.85
LAC	6.19	57.69	0.11
HOU	4.88	54.44	0.34
CLE	4.63	53.80	0.08
SAS	4.19	52.67	0.42
UTA	3.25	50.14	-0.65
DET	2.88	49.15	0.64
BOS	1.74	45.94	-0.41
CHI	1.52	45.33	-1.23
OKC	1.43	45.08	-0.23
CHA	1.04	43.98	-0.64
MIL	0.57	42.63	-0.75
SAC	-0.21	40.39	0.03
MEM	-1.08	37.91	-0.93
POR	-1.35	37.16	0.36
MIN	-1.38	37.07	-0.40
DEN	-1.51	36.69	0.67
MIA	-1.53	36.64	0.28
ATL	-1.78	35.94	-0.26
NYK	-1.95	35.46	0.67
NOP	-2.23	34.68	0.25
IND	-2.44	34.08	-0.34
WAS	-2.45	34.07	-0.46
LAL	-3.47	31.25	1.41
ORL	-3.64	30.79	-0.82
DAL	-4.91	27.47	1.52
PHX	-4.93	27.43	0.16
BRK	-6.12	24.47	0.11
PHI	-7.66	20.95	0.00

[shadow]

Through 12/13

Unweighted:

Code: Select all

Team  Rating Exp Wins
GSW	8.70	63.22
TOR	7.12	59.84
LAC	6.87	59.27
CLE	6.13	57.56
HOU	4.94	54.59
SAS	4.69	53.95
UTA	3.59	51.06
DET	2.68	48.59
CHI	1.61	45.59
BOS	1.44	45.10
CHA	1.06	44.01
OKC	0.72	43.06
MIL	-0.50	39.56
SAC	-0.52	39.52
MEM	-0.54	39.45
POR	-0.75	38.86
NYK	-1.63	36.35
ATL	-1.69	36.19
MIA	-1.76	35.98
MIN	-1.91	35.58
DEN	-1.97	35.41
IND	-2.08	35.08
WAS	-2.40	34.20
NOP	-3.36	31.56
ORL	-4.08	29.62
DAL	-4.32	29.00
LAL	-4.39	28.81
PHX	-4.88	27.55
PHI	-6.26	24.14
BRK	-6.49	23.60

Weighted:

Code: Select all

Team  Rating Exp Wins
GSW	8.59	63.01
TOR	7.13	59.86
LAC	6.45	58.30
CLE	6.08	57.43
HOU	4.97	54.68
SAS	4.44	53.33
UTA	3.53	50.91
DET	2.66	48.52
BOS	1.52	45.34
CHI	1.35	44.84
CHA	0.94	43.68
OKC	0.64	42.84
SAC	-0.36	39.96
MEM	-0.40	39.84
MIL	-0.43	39.78
POR	-0.60	39.28
NYK	-1.52	36.66
MIA	-1.83	35.80
IND	-1.87	35.67
MIN	-1.99	35.34
DEN	-2.03	35.22
ATL	-2.04	35.19
WAS	-2.29	34.51
NOP	-3.29	31.75
ORL	-3.79	30.41
DAL	-4.21	29.29
LAL	-4.65	28.14
PHX	-4.76	27.87
PHI	-5.81	25.23
BRK	-6.43	23.74