APBRmetrics

The discussion of the analysis of basketball through objective evidence, especially basketball statistics.
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PostPosted: Fri Apr 15, 2011 10:06 am 
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moneyp



Joined: 24 Feb 2005
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PostPosted: Tue Apr 17, 2007 9:17 am Post subject: What wins championships? Reply with quote
Just for the heck of it, I decided to look at each NBA champion from 1974-2006 and see what common characteristics they had. I looked at where each champion ranked in the league in pace factor, offensive efficiency, defensive efficiency, and Dean's "four factors" on offense and defense. I expressed it as a percentage (league rank/number of teams) and then figured out the average percentile for an NBA champion in each category.

So a .500 percentile is right at the league median. A higher number means the team was worse than the league median, a lower number is better than the league median.

Yes, it's not very scientific, but I wanted uniform numbers across the board and didn't have a lot of time. I think if you ran the actual stats, the results wouldn't be too much different. Anyway...

Pace factor: .563

On average, championship teams tend to be slower than the league median, but probably not significantly so.

Offensive Efficiency: .212
Defensive Efficiency: .216

No real surprise, championship teams tend to be really good at both ends of the court.

For the "Eight Factors," I decided to display them in order of (apparent) significance:

1. Defensive Shooting: .220
2. Offensive Shooting: .282
3. Defensive Free Throws: .284
4. Defensive Rebounding: .314
5. Offensive Rebounding: .319
6. Offensive Turnovers: .443
7. Offensive Free Throws: .547
8. Defensive Turnovers: .639

No surprise that shooting is the most important category on both sides of the ball, but what I find interesting is that rebounding is next, ahead of turnovers. Do turnovers go down in the playoffs? Are regular season turnovers less significant come playoff time?

Also, the disparities on the offensive and defensive sides of the ball are interesting. Preventing free throws is something championship teams have been historically good at, but drawing fouls, not so much. Not turning over the ball doesn't rank as high as I thought it would and forcing turnovers doesn't seem to matter much at all.

Getting a look at the actual percentiles (or standard deviations, or whatever) above and below the league average as opposed to league rank percentiles would be more illuminating, but is there any significance here? Can we take anything from this?
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Mark



Joined: 20 Aug 2005
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PostPosted: Tue Apr 17, 2007 2:09 pm Post subject: Reply with quote
I assume your data is for full regular season. How performance changes in playoffs would be a next level of analysis or also worth looking at regular season performance split against just playoff teams.

Minimizing fouls given does seem a strong common attribute of champions. San Antonio and Phoenix are in best 3 on this while Dallas is 22nd, the worst of the top 8 teams.In the playoffs last spring Dallas' rate of fouling was 10% higher than regular season and was one of the highest- but they still made it to the finals. They slipped but they didnt rely on this factor and had enough strength elsewhere to compensate. However the Spurs went from 4th lowest FT/FG last regular season to highest of at least top 8 playoff teams and that may have contributed a good deal to their exit. They can not afford to lose that element of strength again this time.
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Don Babbitt



Joined: 01 Feb 2007
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Location: California

PostPosted: Tue Apr 17, 2007 9:55 pm Post subject: Re: What wins championships? Reply with quote
moneyp wrote:
No surprise that shooting is the most important category on both sides of the ball, but what I find interesting is that rebounding is next, ahead of turnovers. Do turnovers go down in the playoffs? Are regular season turnovers less significant come playoff time?

Also, the disparities on the offensive and defensive sides of the ball are interesting. Preventing free throws is something championship teams have been historically good at, but drawing fouls, not so much. Not turning over the ball doesn't rank as high as I thought it would and forcing turnovers doesn't seem to matter much at all.

Getting a look at the actual percentiles (or standard deviations, or whatever) above and below the league average as opposed to league rank percentiles would be more illuminating, but is there any significance here? Can we take anything from this?


The pace might have something to do with it.

Limited possessions....therefore shooting and collecting missed shots is the imperative.
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deepak



Joined: 26 Apr 2006
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PostPosted: Tue Apr 17, 2007 10:08 pm Post subject: Reply with quote
From those numbers, it appears that defensive rebounding and offensive rebounding at the team level are about equal as indicators of championship potential. However, I believe defreb% correlates much better with win% than offreb%, so that result is surprising.

I would have expected that taking care of the ball (not turning it over) is more important than offensive rebounding.
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Crow



Joined: 20 Jan 2009
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PostPosted: Sat Aug 22, 2009 9:40 pm Post subject: Reply with quote
Bump, related to magicmerl's recent question.


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PostPosted: Tue May 17, 2011 8:44 pm 
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Bump.

How will factor strength affect the outcome of the next series?

The Mavs are the only remaining team who is top 4 in the playoffs on own shooting%.

The Thunder and Bulls are #1 and #2 on opponent shooting %.

The Heat and Mavs are #2 and #4 on playoff opponent FT/FGA.

The Heat are #3 on defensive rebounding.

The Bulls are #1 on offensive rebounding, Thunder #4.

How many of these will hold up against the next opponents and which will be substantial reasons for success or failure?

Will the lower factors generally be of lesser importance or will some rise up and be bigger factors this time than the historical averages suggest?

On these top 5 factors historically, the count is Mavs with 2 top 4s in the playoffs, Heat 2, Thunder 2 and Bulls 2. Mavs' 2 strongest factors have the highest rank on importance (1st and 3rd on importance = a simple but crude 4). The other 3 are tied (at 7).


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PostPosted: Sat May 28, 2011 8:16 pm 
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Only the Mavs, Heat and Lakers were top 8 on both offensive and defensive efficiency in the regular season.

Mavs, Heat and Bulls tied for the lowest combined rank on playoff offensive and defensive efficiency at 8. The Thunder were 4th (at 11), Celtics 5th (at 12). Only the Heat are top 5 on both efficiencies in the playoffs so far.

Dallas is top 4 in the playoffs on just 1 Factor- own eFG%, where they were #1. They also had 4 top 8 finishes.

Miami has 3 top 4 playoff rankings and 3 more top 8s on the 4 Factors.

Which will prevail- the best offensive team, mostly because of quality shooting, or the best balanced team with more top Factor marks and more higher ones?


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PostPosted: Sun Jul 17, 2011 2:47 am 
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The best shooting team won.


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