APBRmetrics

The discussion of the analysis of basketball through objective evidence, especially basketball statistics.
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 Post subject: Re: 2012 predictions
PostPosted: Tue Apr 17, 2012 2:37 pm 
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Joined: Fri Apr 15, 2011 12:02 am
Posts: 2295
Location: Asheville, NC
Season 92% over.
Code:
current W + pyth% remaining           pythagorean% X 66 games
3.38   Crow     4.04   MikeG        3.05   Crow     3.90   DSMok1
3.70   JohnH    4.14   DSMok1       3.35   J.E.     3.90   MikeG
3.85   J.E.     4.15   ezPM         3.36   JohnH    4.12   KevinP
3.88   Vegas    4.60   zRA          3.48   dis      4.27   ezPM
3.97   dis      4.72   KevinP       3.83   Vegas    4.33   zRA
4.01   ez2      5.08   11Pyth       3.87   ez2      5.23   11Pyth


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 Post subject: Re: 2012 predictions
PostPosted: Wed Apr 18, 2012 2:26 am 
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Joined: Thu Apr 14, 2011 11:10 pm
Posts: 2423
Thanks for the updates thru the season.


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 Post subject: Re: 2012 predictions
PostPosted: Thu Apr 19, 2012 7:46 pm 
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Joined: Sat Apr 16, 2011 7:40 am
Posts: 298
Location: Cambridge, MA
nice work crow

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 Post subject: Re: 2012 predictions
PostPosted: Thu Apr 19, 2012 8:18 pm 
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Joined: Fri Apr 15, 2011 12:02 am
Posts: 2295
Location: Asheville, NC
Nice is an understatement. I don't think we've seen such a runaway in several years of tracking predictions.
Of course, it could be luck on top of insight. Some teams may be "tanking" of late. But still, the objective is to predict final records, and that is immutable.


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 Post subject: Re: 2012 predictions
PostPosted: Fri Apr 20, 2012 12:01 am 
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Joined: Thu Apr 14, 2011 11:10 pm
Posts: 2423
Thanks Rob, though the finish line is still a week away.

It could be luck on top of insight but my method has done about as well on average as any over my last 4-5 entries.

I spent little time on the predictions. Just computed a custom-weighted average of a handful of other predictions (that have good track records and that I respect) and then tweaked the win projections up or down (mostly modestly) based on my general NBA knowledge.


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 Post subject: Re: 2012 predictions
PostPosted: Fri Apr 20, 2012 2:08 pm 
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Joined: Fri Apr 20, 2012 1:50 pm
Posts: 11
Currently the ESPN Winter Forecast is at 3.63 relative to what the Hollinger Playoff Odds project as each team's final record.

Because of the lockout, we did a Winter Forecast (with 115 voters) in lieu of the usual Summer Forecast.


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 Post subject: Re: 2012 predictions
PostPosted: Fri Apr 27, 2012 2:55 am 
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Posts: 2423
Turns out only 1 team won less than 20 games.

My low Orlando prediction came out 1 win low.


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 Post subject: Re: 2012 predictions
PostPosted: Sat Apr 28, 2012 5:53 pm 
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Joined: Fri Apr 20, 2012 1:50 pm
Posts: 11
Tanking and such created havoc in the final week. In any case, the ESPN Winter Forecast (115 voters) ended up at 3.87.


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 Post subject: Re: 2012 predictions
PostPosted: Wed May 02, 2012 12:14 pm 
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Joined: Fri Apr 15, 2011 12:02 am
Posts: 2295
Location: Asheville, NC
Maybe it's time for the final results.
Code:
Avg error from actual 2012 wins
3.47   Crow        4.47   ez2
4.00   J.E.        4.49   DSMok1
4.07   JohnH       4.87   zRA
4.20   Vegas       4.90   ezPM
4.20   dis         5.12   KevinP
4.31   MikeG       5.37   11Pyth

In the following summary a bold listing means "within one game" and bold italicized is a miss of more than 10.
Crow had the best predictions for Den, Hou, LAL, Mem, NYK, Orl, Sac and Okl. Highest error on Por.
J.E. was closest on Hou, LAC, and SAS. Worst on Ind, Uta, Phl, and Dal.

Ties are listed as best or worst, except for the Wizards: 4 are tied for best and 3 tied for worst.

John Hollinger had the best guess for Okl and Cha; worst for Mil (off by 3).
dudeimstoked was closest on Bos, Mil, NJ; big misses on SAS, GSW
Mike G closest on Chi, Cle, Mia, NO, GS, Uta, and SAS. Worst on Den, Okl, Min, and Phx.


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 Post subject: Re: 2012 predictions
PostPosted: Sat May 05, 2012 3:35 am 
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Posts: 2423
I was closest on 8, 6 in the west. That makes sense as I know the west fairly well and the eastern conference a lot less well.

Mike G closest on 7, 4 west, 3 east.

Pretty good outing for dude i'm stoked.


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 Post subject: Re: 2012 predictions
PostPosted: Sun May 13, 2012 2:09 am 
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Posts: 2423
Not really surprised that 11Pyth did poorly. Another entry finished near the bottom as it usually has. Somewhat surprised and disappointed that ezpm, rapm and the blend were weak. Wonder if there were somewhat tweaked ezpm weights that retrospectively would have done better this season... and into the future. Wonder if there was a better ezpm / rapm weight blend or if a third metric would have helped. Probably are such opportunities to strengthen them.


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 Post subject: Re: 2012 predictions
PostPosted: Wed Jun 27, 2012 7:05 pm 
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Joined: Fri Apr 15, 2011 4:05 pm
Posts: 79
Location: Poland
I guess it's better late than never...
Great stuff Crow! But you were "only" 2nd on the internet ;-)
http://weaksideawareness.wordpress.com/ ... -for-wins/

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 Post subject: Re: 2012 predictions
PostPosted: Wed Jun 27, 2012 11:50 pm 
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Joined: Thu Apr 14, 2011 11:10 pm
Posts: 2423
Thanks. And thanks for letting me know your results.


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