The discussion of the analysis of basketball through objective evidence, especially basketball statistics.
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PostPosted: Thu Feb 23, 2012 5:15 pm 

Joined: Thu Apr 21, 2011 8:25 pm
Posts: 218
Location: Boone, NC
"The 3 Point Line is a Lottery" - Ken Pomeroy

Quite the profound article. I would have simply used even games to predict odd games (which I have been doing for four-factors lately).
Everything is pretty intuitive until you get to the offensive 3P% reliability!

I would be slightly more convinced if he looked at:

a) a larger sample size
b) 3PM/100 versus 3PA/100

PostPosted: Thu Feb 23, 2012 8:27 pm 

Joined: Thu Apr 14, 2011 11:35 pm
Posts: 154
I think it all makes sense. Most players (and teams) are not going to shoot a 3-pointer unless they're open. Even if they are open, they might opt not to shoot anyway -- especially if they're say Dwight Howard.

So any given three-point attempt is going to look a lot like any other: some guy, far from the basket, with time and space to launch a shot. And usually the ability to make that shot, unless they a knuckleheaded gunner (I'm looking at you Charles Barkley).

So the offensive and defensive 3PT% stats will be pretty much random from game to game. Same old same old: an open look, and either your shot goes in or it misses. Random lottery.

Three-point ATTEMPTS on the other hand are very much under the control of the offense, and to a certain extent the defense too. Which is exactly what the stats show.

So if you're say Tom Thibodeau can you design a defense to counter your opponent's three-point offense? Sure. Make sure the perimeter players are covered and you can cut down the open looks they get, and thus cut down the attempts they make.

They WILL still have about the same 3PT% that they usually do -- you can't magically get them to miss their open shot attempts. But you can reduce their open shot attempts.

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