As of yesterday morning, the Bulls were 6-5 with an average score of 93.5-90.5

Their Pythagorean Wins, given their +3.0 ppg over 11 games, were 6.64 (and 4.36 pL)

Then they lost by 39 to the Clippers.

Now their point averages are 92.5-93.1 , yielding pW = 5.75 (and 6.25 pL)

Somehow, by being blown out in their 12th game, they earned

**minus-0.89** pW

If your average score is 82-121, then your pyth W% is about .005 -- you should win one game in 200 or so.

There's no such thing as a negative probability of a win.

If the first game of the season is a 82-121 loss, then you have earned .005 pW

But if it happens later than that, you have earned negative pW for the same game.

Obviously, if you have lost by 40 or by 1, you have a zero likelihood of having won the game. Yet we can still assign a pW% to each game. Here are the Bulls' 12 games in order of their pW earned:

**Code:**

.opponent Chi Opp pW

Utah Jazz 97 73 .98

Toronto Raptors 96 80 .92

Cleveland Cavaliers 96 81 .91

Indiana Pacers 110 94 .89

Charlotte Bobcats 86 81 .69

New York Knicks 82 81 .54

Philadelphia 76ers 104 107 .41

Portland TrailBlazers 95 98 .40

Denver Nuggets 87 97 .19

Miami Heat 95 107 .17

Indiana Pacers 80 97 .07

Los Angeles Clippers 82 121 .01

.total/avg 92.5 93.1 6.16

A win is a win, and a loss is a loss, whether by 1 or by 40. They still have a pW of 5.75; but when you add their game-by-game pW, they are at 6.16

Here are all teams, ranked by the amount that traditional pythW% overrates them, relative to game-by-game (Alternate) pW%

**Code:**

diff Tm W% pW% AltpW% diff Tm W% pW% AltpW%

.087 Min .533 .706 .618 -.003 Sac .308 .374 .377

.063 LAC .667 .641 .578 -.006 Was .385 .427 .432

.069 SAS .923 .833 .764 -.018 Orl .308 .409 .428

.060 GSW .571 .644 .584 -.022 Det .385 .428 .450

.051 Mia .769 .771 .720 -.021 Cha .500 .427 .448

.050 NOP .500 .582 .532 -.030 Mem .538 .423 .453

.039 Ind .923 .798 .760 -.035 Chi .500 .479 .514

.025 Tor .462 .542 .517 -.040 LAL .500 .425 .465

.023 Okl .750 .651 .628 -.038 Bos .333 .318 .356

.016 Hou .643 .629 .613 -.046 Uta .067 .159 .205

.015 Por .857 .686 .671 -.065 Mil .167 .202 .266

.014 Dal .643 .598 .585 -.062 Brk .231 .265 .326

.013 Atl .571 .585 .572 -.067 NYK .250 .309 .375

.011 Phx .538 .582 .571 -.068 Cle .286 .240 .308

.001 Den .500 .500 .499 -.072 Phl .400 .330 .402

OKC led Utah by 32 after 3 quarters yesterday, and the eventual difference was 22.

The Clipps led the Bulls by 23 after 3, and a 25-9 4th Q made it a 39-pt difference.

Losing by 39 may or may not be an ominous portent of serious problems with the Bulls. More likely, IMO, it's "just one loss".

Close to zero added win chances, not some huge (and impossible) negative number.