I have a google-doc with a collection of draft models and predictions I wanted to share here.
Models include:"EWP" model
) which uses a player's peak season in terms of combined Win Shares and RAPM-wins as the dependent variable. The model draws from NCAA prospects going back to the early 80s and uses random effects to address the contextual problems that this deep history creates."Humble" model
) which is similar to the EWP model, but is heavily influenced by expert opinion (i.e. a transformed draft-order variable historically and DX + Chad Ford rankings for predictions)"RAPM-DIF" model
) which uses RAPM-O and RAPM-D as the dependent variable of two separate models. This model draws from players going back to 2002."Star %" model
) which uses multinomial regression to peg a player's likelihood of being either a bust, bench-player, starter, or star drawing from NCAA prospect going back to the early 80s."ATH" model
) which won't have ratings for 2014 until after the combine, but tries to predict NBA production while using only physical data.and finally "Statistical Comps"
) which is just a simple metric that finds the average standard deviation difference between each prospect and historical players back to the early 80s across box-score statsitics, age, size, and team context and lists the most similar players it finds.
You will find a link to "out of sample" retrodictions for each of these models on the associated worksheet in the google-doc. I also recently added a list of the variables included in the model along with parameter estimates and standard-errors to the prediction page for the EWP, Humble, and RAPM-DIF models. I have put an emphasis on keeping these models simple both to avoid over-fitting as well as make it easier to understand why certain players look good/bad and subjectively assess where predictions may or may not be appropriate in a given case.
I tweet updates every Tuesday (https://twitter.com/VJL_bball
) and am happy to take requests for players not in the lists (though some guys I may not want to add until the season is finished just to make updating easier.)