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The discussion of the analysis of basketball through objective evidence, especially basketball statistics.
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PostPosted: Fri Apr 17, 2015 9:18 am 
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Joined: Fri Apr 15, 2011 8:28 am
Posts: 780
I get 2 different winners, depending on how you score it
Code:
╔════════════════╦═══════════════╦══════════════╦══════════════════╦═════════════════╗
║                ║ PythWins RMSE ║ PythWins ABS ║ Actual Wins RMSE ║ Actual Wins ABS ║
╠════════════════╬═══════════════╬══════════════╬══════════════════╬═════════════════╣
║ 538            ║ 7.79***       ║ 6.10***      ║ 8.16             ║ 6.20***         ║
║ AcrossTheCourt ║ 8.49          ║ 6.33         ║ 8.89             ║ 7.09            ║
║ AJ ASPM        ║ 9.11          ║ 7.24         ║ 9.82             ║ 7.80            ║
║ AJ PT PM       ║ 7.73**        ║ 6.00**       ║ 7.82*            ║ 6.03**          ║
║ bbstats        ║ 7.57*         ║ 5.96*        ║ 8.01**           ║ 6.00*           ║
║ Bobbofitos     ║ 9.17          ║ 7.24         ║ 9.64             ║ 7.93            ║
║ Crow           ║ 8.22          ║ 6.57         ║ 8.09***          ║ 6.27            ║
║ Dr Positivity  ║ 9.02          ║ 6.84         ║ 8.80             ║ 6.73            ║
║ ESPN Fall      ║ 9.02          ║ 6.84         ║ 9.09             ║ 6.80            ║
║ ESPN Summer    ║ 8.95          ║ 6.84         ║ 9.06             ║ 6.60            ║
║ fpliii         ║ 9.39          ║ 7.32         ║ 9.11             ║ 6.99            ║
║ HoopDon        ║ 8.44          ║ 6.36         ║ 8.63             ║ 6.60            ║
║ italia13calcio ║ 8.50          ║ 7.07         ║ 8.40             ║ 6.90            ║
║ Mike G         ║ 9.31          ║ 7.52         ║ 10.05            ║ 8.15            ║
║ mystic         ║ 8.16          ║ 6.43         ║ 8.40             ║ 6.34            ║
║ nbacouchside   ║ 8.84          ║ 6.90         ║ 8.68             ║ 6.67            ║
║ sndesai1       ║ 9.84          ║ 7.32         ║ 9.70             ║ 7.17            ║
║ v-zero         ║ 8.64          ║ 6.95         ║ 9.14             ║ 7.30            ║
║ William Hill   ║ 9.01          ║ 6.98         ║ 9.06             ║ 6.95            ║
╚════════════════╩═══════════════╩══════════════╩══════════════════╩═════════════════╝

I'm not sure whether official scoring rules were stated before the season, but I think we can safely say that bbstats and AJ PT-PM did best, with 538 not far behind

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PostPosted: Fri Apr 17, 2015 1:53 pm 
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Joined: Fri Mar 08, 2013 10:00 pm
Posts: 80
Thanks JE. I think there were a few entries added halfway and I ended up changing the Vegas line to the closing LVH one so those be the only differences between your 3rd column and chart below:

Image


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PostPosted: Fri Apr 17, 2015 2:13 pm 
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Joined: Tue Nov 27, 2012 7:04 pm
Posts: 308
Congrats AJ.

So RPM or xRAPM - so-called the best metric - lost again to something not even a blend :D


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PostPosted: Fri Apr 17, 2015 3:37 pm 
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Joined: Thu Apr 21, 2011 8:25 pm
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Location: Boone, NC
Well...mine was built to predict RPM in the same way PT-PM was built to predict RAPM, so....

:)

Thanks guys, that was fun.


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PostPosted: Fri Apr 17, 2015 4:29 pm 
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Location: Hotlanta
So when do we get PT-PM predictions for the playoffs?

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PostPosted: Fri Apr 17, 2015 5:23 pm 
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Joined: Tue Nov 27, 2012 7:04 pm
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bbstats wrote:
Well...mine was built to predict RPM in the same way PT-PM was built to predict RAPM, so....

:)

Thanks guys, that was fun.


Hmm, I thought you used the RPM itself and I was a bit surprised with the end result. Now it makes sense :)


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PostPosted: Fri Apr 17, 2015 5:51 pm 
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Joined: Fri Apr 15, 2011 12:02 am
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Location: Asheville, NC
Does anyone feel like digging up previous years' predictions and see what are correlations from year to year, from various sources?

Last year's winner was near the bottom this year. Just saying.


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PostPosted: Fri Apr 17, 2015 9:28 pm 
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Joined: Thu Apr 14, 2011 11:10 pm
Posts: 3853
Congrats to the winners.

Too much weight to Vegas this season when Vegas was meh. At least my weighting was enough of a contribution to beat 538 compared to simple averaging.

search.php?keywords=predictions+&terms=all&author=&sc=1&sf=titleonly&sk=t&sd=d&sr=topics&st=0&ch=300&t=0&submit=Search

The 2009-10 data is missing. 2007-8 only briefly referenced. Nor sure if there was a contest before 2007-8, maybe one or two more happened before that. So it is a little cloudy. Hollinger and I each have 2 wins since 2007-8. Neither of us competed every year, but I competed more. I have at least four top 3 finishes in I think 5-6 tries in the time period; he had at least 3. No other multiple winners yet, unless it was Vegas in the early days.


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PostPosted: Sat Apr 18, 2015 10:35 am 
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For 6 peeps in last year's and this year's predictions, the correlation is .553
If we take out Bobbofitos, it's .924 -- the rest of us are in the same order each year.
If we take out yours truly, it's -.186


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PostPosted: Thu Apr 23, 2015 5:40 am 
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It might be interesting / useful to backwards engineer an optimal blend. It will change year to year but if I was serious about trying to win again I should do it for a period of years more precisely instead of just eyeballing it and roughly blending. The competition appears to have gotten tougher.


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PostPosted: Sun Apr 26, 2015 3:35 am 
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Joined: Sat Apr 16, 2011 7:40 am
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Location: Cambridge, MA
Mike G wrote:
Does anyone feel like digging up previous years' predictions and see what are correlations from year to year, from various sources?

Last year's winner was near the bottom this year. Just saying.

don't remind me :(

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