APBRmetrics

The discussion of the analysis of basketball through objective evidence, especially basketball statistics.
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PostPosted: Thu Apr 16, 2015 2:44 pm 
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Hello everyone,

I believe the work that members of this community are doing is truly remarkable. As as an advocate of analytical thinking, it gives me great pleasure to see not only the analysis done on this board, but to see this framework of thinking gain further credence among the mainstream consensus. With the intention of promoting the work of individual members of this board, and the community as a whole, I have reached out to Jonathan Givony and DraftExpress about creating a feature on DraftExpress showcasing various NBA draft models.

After some communication, this is where things stand as of now.

The idea would be to display several draft rankings composed of different models. This would be followed up by a general article detailing what each draft model does, how they compare to one another, and how they compare to the DraftExpress rankings etc.

100000 different models cannot be displayed, but if you have contributed to APBR before, have worked on draft models in previous years or have reason to believe yours is particularly strong, your participation is welcome.

Nothing is set in stone, so I welcome any thoughts or feedback from anyone on this board.

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PostPosted: Thu Apr 16, 2015 2:54 pm 
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Jonathan Givony is certainly interested in this project, I have talked to him as well. He is not concerned if a particular system does not include international players; there are not many internationals of interest this year.

The actual format of the articles has not been decided upon, but the players will be likely looked at from the perspective of the DraftExpress rankings, my Box Plus/Minus ratings (to measure college performance) and then a variety of the draft models available. Jonathan also wanted these articles to serve as sort of a gateway explaining the various models--so each model will need a short writeup of sorts, explaining rationale, methodology, strengths, weaknesses, etc.

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PostPosted: Thu Apr 16, 2015 3:24 pm 
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Sounds fun! I talked to Givony a bit at SLOAN and he seemed legitimately interested in finding ways to involve some of the draft models in the discussion. Thanks for taking the initiative to set something up.


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PostPosted: Thu Apr 16, 2015 4:09 pm 
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DSMok1 wrote:
Jonathan Givony is certainly interested in this project, I have talked to him as well. He is not concerned if a particular system does not include international players; there are not many internationals of interest this year.

The actual format of the articles has not been decided upon, but the players will be likely looked at from the perspective of the DraftExpress rankings, my Box Plus/Minus ratings (to measure college performance) and then a variety of the draft models available. Jonathan also wanted these articles to serve as sort of a gateway explaining the various models--so each model will need a short writeup of sorts, explaining rationale, methodology, strengths, weaknesses, etc.


What time frame are we looking at? Start of June?

The reason I ask is that I have a big draft model project that I am currently working on (retrodiction of the last 20 drafts) involving my normal draft modeling but also trying to incorporate similarity scores w/ the past projections. I plan on presenting my work to all the NBA teams before I make all current results public, to see if I could land a gig with a team to help their scouting & $ resourcing for both the NBA & D leagues.

But, if I am still a free agent coming closer to the draft, I'll make all my work public. I'd love to be actively involved in any draft model comparisons/presentations if that's the case.

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PostPosted: Thu Apr 16, 2015 11:35 pm 
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Sounds good. Thanks for pursuing.

I'd enjoy it if a consensus average rank were calculated and shared. And if possible compare the individual projections and consensus average to the DX rankings from 1 month, 1 week and the morning before draft to the actual draft. And then eventually final projections and actual draft order to 1 yr, 3yrs into career performance.


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PostPosted: Sun Apr 19, 2015 8:59 pm 
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I'd love to participate if asked and if this becomes a thing.


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PostPosted: Sun Apr 19, 2015 11:01 pm 
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I am asking for, recommending, expecting Nick in the project. And Dan (Statman), Layne Vashro, etc.


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PostPosted: Mon Apr 20, 2015 12:18 pm 
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This is a think, Nick, and you're invited.

What players should be rated? All players available in the draft or only, say, the DX top 100? Thoughts on how the results should be shown? Ranks, ratings, etc?

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PostPosted: Mon Apr 20, 2015 6:52 pm 
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Top 50 is enough for me. Do 60, 100, all, I'll read to about 50 then trail off.


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PostPosted: Tue Apr 21, 2015 5:54 pm 
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For rankings purposes, we'll be evaluating the DraftExpress top 100 prospects (or at least the NCAA players from that list). I would also recommend rating the early entrants list from DX and the top 75 seniors list from DX.

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PostPosted: Tue Apr 21, 2015 8:19 pm 
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This looks like fun. I'm interested in participating. Please let me know if there is room for one more.

Thanks,
Steve

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PostPosted: Tue Apr 21, 2015 9:44 pm 
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Statman wrote:
DSMok1 wrote:
Jonathan Givony is certainly interested in this project, I have talked to him as well. He is not concerned if a particular system does not include international players; there are not many internationals of interest this year.

The actual format of the articles has not been decided upon, but the players will be likely looked at from the perspective of the DraftExpress rankings, my Box Plus/Minus ratings (to measure college performance) and then a variety of the draft models available. Jonathan also wanted these articles to serve as sort of a gateway explaining the various models--so each model will need a short writeup of sorts, explaining rationale, methodology, strengths, weaknesses, etc.


What time frame are we looking at? Start of June?

The reason I ask is that I have a big draft model project that I am currently working on (retrodiction of the last 20 drafts) involving my normal draft modeling but also trying to incorporate similarity scores w/ the past projections. I plan on presenting my work to all the NBA teams before I make all current results public, to see if I could land a gig with a team to help their scouting & $ resourcing for both the NBA & D leagues.

But, if I am still a free agent coming closer to the draft, I'll make all my work public. I'd love to be actively involved in any draft model comparisons/presentations if that's the case.


I wish you the best of luck in your effort of having your work "drafted" to an NBA team. If it doesn't work out, then I am excited to see your contributions.

I am not sure the time frame. If I had to guess, I would imagine sometime in June. Is there a preferred or unacceptable timeframe for others on here?

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PostPosted: Tue Apr 21, 2015 9:52 pm 
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steveshea wrote:
This looks like fun. I'm interested in participating. Please let me know if there is room for one more.

Thanks,
Steve


Please to have you on board.

I think its important to state - everyone is encouraged to participate on APBR.

I don't think it makes sense to say at this point "only poster X, Y and Z will have their work featured". I think the more ideal and realistic scenario is that users will post on this forum and based on factors such as their history, activity and quality of work, it will become clear how many models (and by whom) will be posted.

Thoughts?

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PostPosted: Wed Apr 22, 2015 12:38 pm 
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ampersand5 wrote:
steveshea wrote:
This looks like fun. I'm interested in participating. Please let me know if there is room for one more.

Thanks,
Steve


Please to have you on board.

I think its important to state - everyone is encouraged to participate on APBR.

I don't think it makes sense to say at this point "only poster X, Y and Z will have their work featured". I think the more ideal and realistic scenario is that users will post on this forum and based on factors such as their history, activity and quality of work, it will become clear how many models (and by whom) will be posted.

Thoughts?


Absolutely. If you've got an analytical draft model, you're invited.

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PostPosted: Wed Apr 22, 2015 2:51 pm 
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To make sure and include anyone who is interested, we should probably have some sort of "official" collection of results and methods descriptions. May 20th is a good target date, since it is after the combine and the lottery.

Probably best to limit it to one model per person, otherwise some folks (like me) could spam the collection.

Regardless of what happens with DX, it would be nice to get everybody together and put together an organized list.


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