APBRmetrics

The discussion of the analysis of basketball through objective evidence, especially basketball statistics.
It is currently Wed Oct 18, 2017 10:04 pm

All times are UTC




Post new topic Reply to topic  [ 323 posts ]  Go to page 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 ... 22  Next
Author Message
PostPosted: Wed Aug 19, 2015 7:22 pm 
Offline

Joined: Thu Apr 14, 2011 11:10 pm
Posts: 4652
Subjective projections from ESPN crowd:

http://espn.go.com/nba/story/_/id/13431 ... -standings
http://espn.go.com/nba/story/_/id/13431 ... -standings


Top
 Profile  
 
PostPosted: Thu Aug 20, 2015 2:18 am 
Offline

Joined: Thu Apr 14, 2011 11:10 pm
Posts: 4652
Pacers and Celtics may be among the tougher projections. Haven't studied it closely but found myself surprisingly wondering if Lakers might outpeform. Just a question. 26 wins isn't much.


Top
 Profile  
 
PostPosted: Thu Aug 20, 2015 2:10 pm 
Offline

Joined: Fri Apr 15, 2011 12:02 am
Posts: 3835
Location: Asheville, NC
Good regression to the mean; there's a -0.49 correlation between last year's Wins and additional wins next season.
Teams with 49+ wins last year are expected to win 4.3 fewer games in 2016, on avg
Those who won 37-46 games should win 1.6 more on avg
The worst teams, with 33 or fewer wins last year avg another 3.4 in these projections.
Code:
west  2015  2016  impr       east  2015  2016  impr
GSW    67    60    -7        Cle    53    59     6
SAS    55    57     2        Atl    60    50   -10
Hou    56    56     0        Chi    50    50     0
LAC    56    56     0        Mia    37    47    10
OKC    45    55    10        Was    46    46     0

Mem    55    51    -4        Tor    49    44    -5
NOP    45    47     2        Mil    41    44     3
Dal    50    41    -9        Bos    40    40     0
Uta    38    40     2        Ind    38    39     1
Phx    39    35    -4        Cha    33    35     2

Por    51    31   -20        Det    32    35     3
Sac    29    31     2        NJN    38    30    -8
Den    30    27    -3        Orl    25    30     5
LAL    21    26     5        NYK    17    25     8
Min    16    24     8        Phl    18    19     1

avg    43.5  42.5  -1        avg    38.5  39.5   1

Early projection forecasts the east-west disparity to be reduced by 40%


Top
 Profile  
 
PostPosted: Thu Aug 20, 2015 7:36 pm 
Offline

Joined: Thu Apr 14, 2011 11:10 pm
Posts: 4652
If the divisional adjustment occurs it would roll the edge back to 2011-2 levels. I kinda doubt it goes that far but between 2013-4 and 2014-5 the west's edge did fall 20% from its recent period high.


Top
 Profile  
 
PostPosted: Wed Oct 07, 2015 9:01 pm 
Offline

Joined: Sun Nov 23, 2014 6:18 pm
Posts: 261
Andrew Johnson's projections are up:

http://nyloncalculus.com/2015/09/30/hig ... s-2015-16/

My only piece of feedback is for how easy it is to include the effect of fatigue (back to back/four in five), I'm not sure why it's not being added to the numbers.

_________________
http://danfrank.ca/


Top
 Profile  
 
PostPosted: Wed Oct 07, 2015 9:18 pm 
Offline

Joined: Sun Nov 23, 2014 6:18 pm
Posts: 261
Kevin Ferrigan's: Image

_________________
http://danfrank.ca/


Top
 Profile  
 
PostPosted: Wed Oct 07, 2015 11:30 pm 
Offline

Joined: Fri Apr 15, 2011 12:02 am
Posts: 3835
Location: Asheville, NC
ampersand5 wrote:
how easy it is to include the effect of fatigue (back to back/four in five)...

Do some teams have a lot more of these than others?


Top
 Profile  
 
PostPosted: Thu Oct 08, 2015 2:28 am 
Offline

Joined: Sun Nov 23, 2014 6:18 pm
Posts: 261
Mike G wrote:
ampersand5 wrote:
how easy it is to include the effect of fatigue (back to back/four in five)...

Do some teams have a lot more of these than others?


I haven't seen the numbers for the 2016 season yet, but typically yes.

_________________
http://danfrank.ca/


Top
 Profile  
 
PostPosted: Fri Oct 09, 2015 2:20 am 
Offline

Joined: Thu Apr 14, 2011 11:10 pm
Posts: 4652
Andrew, did you consider age adjusting offense and defense separately given their different RAPM age curves? Have you look at which coaches minute allocations vary from the model the most? Overall, for vets - young guys split, good players - bad, perimeters - bigs, etc.? Both could improve the model, with sufficient time.


Top
 Profile  
 
PostPosted: Fri Oct 09, 2015 2:22 pm 
Offline

Joined: Thu Apr 21, 2011 8:25 pm
Posts: 218
Location: Boone, NC
Are we going to do the contest in this thread?


Top
 Profile  
 
PostPosted: Fri Oct 09, 2015 5:09 pm 
Offline

Joined: Thu Apr 14, 2011 11:10 pm
Posts: 4652
Could. I created the thread with that option. But if someone sees any reason to start fresh, go for another thread.


Top
 Profile  
 
PostPosted: Sat Oct 10, 2015 2:23 am 
Offline

Joined: Fri Apr 15, 2011 12:02 am
Posts: 3835
Location: Asheville, NC
Using Kevin Pelton's minutes,
viewtopic.php?f=2&t=9005
... I get an average of 43.2 eWins per team. This is 45.4 wins expected: It's a pretty optimistic distribution of minutes.
Scaling every team down equally, I get these; you may consider eW to be a 50% regression to the mean, and the columns represent a range.
Code:
west    xW      eW         east    xW      eW
LAC    67.5    54.3        Mia    56.1    48.6
SAS    63.3    52.1        Atl    55.4    48.2
GSW    61.9    51.5        Cle    53.9    47.4
Okl    60.6    50.8        Tor    44.4    42.7
Hou    57.6    49.3        Chi    42.4    41.7

Mem    46.9    44.0        Ind    42.2    41.6
NOP    46.7    43.9        Det    41.9    41.5
Sac    45.2    43.1        Mil    40.6    40.8
Uta    42.1    41.6        Bos    34.8    37.9
Dal    35.3    38.2        Cha    33.1    37.0

Por    33.2    37.1        Was    32.8    36.9
Phx    32.8    36.9        Orl    30.6    35.8
Min    28.0    34.5        Brk    23.3    32.2
Den    24.2    32.6        NYK    20.4    30.7
LAL    22.0    31.5        Phl    10.8    25.9

avg    44.5    42.7        avg    37.5    39.3
Miami rules the East! Bosh gets 60% more minutes, Wade 11% more, Whiteside 90% more than last year. Headed to the bench are Chalmers, Haslem, Tyler Johnson, and their woeful rates.

Out west, it looks like the Clippers' year. They added quality depth with Pierce, Smoove, Lance, and Aldrich. Actually, there's great uncertainty with those guys. But no boost required in anyone's minutes -- just continued health.

I didn't do any age adjustment. In another thread, we see that aging players produce more wins with a given point differential. So these factors may just about offset.


Top
 Profile  
 
PostPosted: Sat Oct 10, 2015 5:17 am 
Offline

Joined: Thu Sep 20, 2012 6:44 pm
Posts: 263
* deleted because of post later in thread


Last edited by Dr Positivity on Tue Oct 27, 2015 3:12 am, edited 1 time in total.

Top
 Profile  
 
PostPosted: Tue Oct 13, 2015 3:22 am 
Offline

Joined: Thu Apr 16, 2015 5:03 am
Posts: 9
I'll post my team projections in here once I finish up. Just wondering, do you guys also have a contest for individual player "stat line" projections? If so, I'd like to enter that one as well.


Top
 Profile  
 
PostPosted: Tue Oct 13, 2015 6:17 am 
Offline

Joined: Thu Apr 14, 2011 11:10 pm
Posts: 4652
Haven't had one of those, but start a thread up if you like.


Top
 Profile  
 
Display posts from previous:  Sort by  
Post new topic Reply to topic  [ 323 posts ]  Go to page 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 ... 22  Next

All times are UTC


Who is online

Users browsing this forum: Google [Bot], Yahoo [Bot] and 18 guests


You cannot post new topics in this forum
You cannot reply to topics in this forum
You cannot edit your posts in this forum
You cannot delete your posts in this forum

Search for:
Jump to:  
Powered by phpBB® Forum Software © phpBB Group