Fixing the Lakers

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Crow
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Fixing the Lakers

Post by Crow » Mon Nov 05, 2018 5:40 am

I'd offer Bzdelik $2-3 million to unretire and run the defense, if he is able to join a new team this season.

I'd play better rebounders at several positions. The offensive rebounding is pathetic for most of the wings / forwards and team defensive rebounding is even worse.

I'd trade Ingram. I'd try to include KCP.

I'd consider trading Ball but it would have to be a good offer and I'd try this other stuff first.

I'd play the starters a lot more. I'd be willing to play more 0-2 starter bench lead lineups to help facilitate this. I'd consider removing Kuzma from starting lineup if some other forward can be obtained. I'd play Hart more. I'd probably continue to start McGee but need to look closer.

There hasn't been a meaningful test of Rondo with the rest of the current starters. I'd find 5 games in the next 10-20 games to test it then review the options.

I might fire Walton but would want to try the above and a new offense using Moreyball principles first. Then will be plenty of time to fire Walton later if things don't start to change.

Dr Positivity
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Re: Fixing the Lakers

Post by Dr Positivity » Tue Nov 06, 2018 10:22 pm

Hard situation. Lebron's impact is on the way down and they don't have enough good players around him anyways. Trading Ingram for Butler could be a good idea. Ball has potential if he can be a guard who defends, shoots 40% 3, passes and rebounds, even if low volume scorer. Hart can also grow into 3 and D counterpart at SG. Lebron and them theoretically is a good fit but might be a year or two too early. Kuzma isn't shooting the 3 well enough to be worth starting right now. McGee and Rondo have played well which is scary considering they are still 4-6 in spite of that. Compared to the Cavs when Lebron went back, the Lakers neither have Irving (homegrown star) or Love (traded for perennial all-star), and Lebron is worse.

Crow
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Joined: Thu Apr 14, 2011 11:10 pm

Re: Fixing the Lakers

Post by Crow » Thu Nov 08, 2018 5:09 am

4 of Walton's 5 most used lineups are negative. The starters with Ingram pretty strongly negative. Substitute in Hart, performing 20 pts per 100 possessions better.

Ball - James is -5 in first 200 minutes. 9 of Ball's most used pairs are negative with only Hart forming a positive pair with him.

60% of the team's most used player pairs are negative and only 25% are even modestly above neutral with no really great pairs. The good pairs all have Hart or Rondo.

Of course it is early and this is raw, not equivalent data but it is enough to start review. RAPM and RAPM pairs & lineups are desired.

Ball has some dink lineups that are positive but too small to feel confident about yet. Test the thought to be best more... before it is too late Luke.

James is negative in 8 of his 10 most used pairs. Tiny positive with Hart and a deep bench guy.

Hart James and rest of current starters would be the most obvious lineup to increase testing on. Hart James with young guys or old guys. I wondered about going to young and ok shifts before season. Not seeing much sign that mixing is generally good with James. Youth with Rondo has pretty good data. 6 of top 10 pairs positive, moderate to strong.

McGee and Kuzma have some small minute lineups but the underlying player pair data is pretty meh.

After these few minutes of research I found myself wondering about Rondo Hart James Kuzma McGee. Walton has tried 150 lineups before tonight. This one has gotten 3.9 minutes of trial. Probably ought to be 10-20 times more already. Rondo Hart James Kuzma were good tonight on raw plus minus. McGee ok. Checking to see if they played as unit. Probably not. Easier to know tomorrow.

Coaches have various thoughts, biases, rotation habits and probably don't even know what they are missing, not trying or not trying enough. You dink with 150 lineups, how much do you learn? Not much, imo.



Will be interesting to see how patient or impatient Magic is. I dunno how involved in the details he is. Is he on same page as Pelinka?

Crow
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Re: Fixing the Lakers

Post by Crow » Thu Nov 08, 2018 4:48 pm

Walton didn't use Rondo Hart James Kuzma McGee last night.

Stepping back a bit, the best trios have James & Hart. With Ball or Kuzma. With Rondo isn't good but it is only 20th on minutes of testing. Rondo Hart James Chandler did very well last night. Several lineups that should get priority testing. To do that, will have to reduce the random play of huge numbers of dink lineups. Can only learn much about a few lineups at a time.

Crow
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Re: Fixing the Lakers

Post by Crow » Thu Nov 08, 2018 5:42 pm

LeBron has his least strong OBPM & DRPM since his rookie season. Lots of stats down some. Worst on the court plus minus of career at -1.

Crow
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Re: Fixing the Lakers

Post by Crow » Sat Nov 10, 2018 6:25 pm

The difference between Ball on and Rondo on is huge. If they want to win much this season they can't afford so many losing Ball minutes.

All of the 10 most used player pairs with Hart positive. None more so than with Ingram. Play them together more. Only together 1/3rd of Ingram's time so far. Ingram is negative with all starters. Positive with all rotation bench. But Walton in his wisdom plays with the starters. Maybe in line with front office dedication to Ingram as star, either now or future. He isn't though. Nowhere close even to average on metrics. Team shoots and passes better with Hart. Could use more help with ftas and rebounding though.

Crow
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Re: Fixing the Lakers

Post by Crow » Wed Nov 21, 2018 6:41 am

2 weeks later last check, 5 of Lakers' 6 most used lineups are negative compared to 4 of 5 previously. 11 of the next 14 are positive though. No meaningful use of Rondo Hart James Kuzma McGee but that quad with Ball is the main bright spot for lineups.

70% of 20 most used lineups are now positive but most of the biggest 10 are just meh. Pairs between the 5 guys in my suggested starting unit continue to represent the best pairs though there are also a handful of good pairs with KCP.

Ingram and Ball have very few pairs in most used 20 that are positive and only barely to very mildly. Competition level can affect raw pair data but there is not much surface case of them fitting well overall with teammates at pair level. Making it all the more important to pick the right 5 man lineups. General faith is not warranted.

Has Chandler helped with rebounding? Probably on offensive glass. Have to look further for answer on defensive glass. Seems to be a positive impact on team defensive rebounding. From boxouts and / or tap outs.

Crow
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Re: Fixing the Lakers

Post by Crow » Tue Mar 05, 2019 6:02 pm

As noted way back at beginning of season, Lakers don't rebound and aren't that strong at shot selection (get to rim but avg. frequency from 3pt and FT lines and weak at making them). Big own turnover problem. Insufficient lineup concentration with and without James. Lack of strong player pairs / chemistry. Purportedly weak play design & play calling.

The lineup data at trio, quad and 5 man levels says play combinations of as many of Ball, Hart, James, Kuzma and McGee above anyone else and probably as much as possible. But Walton has used them lightly. Injury has been a significant limiter but he didn't show enough focus even when he had his best collaborating players available. 587 lineups used. Pretty average 32% positive. Want to be good, very good or great? Go with better producers more. Way more.

Playoff chances? O.1% at BRef. Entire front office / coaching staff messed up in one or more ways for actions and inactions. As with most of the players.

Dr Positivity
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Re: Fixing the Lakers

Post by Dr Positivity » Wed Mar 06, 2019 11:41 pm

Ingram headed for 25 mil+? He puts up PPG but on midrange more than 3pt shots, and his WS/BPM are bad. Harrison Barnes and Andrew Wiggins like this post

Crow
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Re: Fixing the Lakers

Post by Crow » Thu Mar 07, 2019 2:25 am

One of the many issues for the front office to sort out. They may or may not get a mulligan from Laker fans for this season but the pressure / expectations will ratchet up next season and one after that.

Crow
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Re: Fixing the Lakers

Post by Crow » Tue Mar 19, 2019 6:03 am

Is there an assistant coach or associate head coach who would join Lakers and meaningfully improve the offensive design & execution? Probably. Will Jeannie Buss try to limit the change to that? I dunno. The press acts like it is a done deal tha Walton is gone. I don't think is certain.

Crow
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Re: Fixing the Lakers

Post by Crow » Tue Mar 19, 2019 6:18 am

Should Lakers go hard after Looney? Yes. How high would the Warriors go to retain? Push them.

Crow
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Re: Fixing the Lakers

Post by Crow » Tue Mar 19, 2019 6:39 am

I don't see how Anthony Davis gets to Lakers this summer. They don't want to give what the Pelicans want- a lot of unused draft picks.

During next season maybe if Celtics can't get it done. Best bet is summer of 2020.

How are the Celtics supposed to make it work? Trade Tatum, Horford, picks around draft? Would Pelicans want Horford or accept prospect of him walking? Celtics likely fight, stall on giving a lot of picks. How long before the Pelicans go another direction? Who else would value Davis enough as a rental to win? Could the Rockets get him? Thunder? Clippers?

Crow
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Re: Fixing the Lakers

Post by Crow » Mon Apr 08, 2019 6:12 am

Lakers probably should be able to pull off some of the following:

Trade for Bjelica.
Sign Looney.
Sign Seth Curry.
Sign Kleber.
Sign Mirotic.
Trade Ball.
Sign Vucevic.
Sign Derick Rose.
Sign Taj Gibson.
Trade for Dragic at the deadline.
Maybe trade for Aldridge at the deadline.
Sign Rubio. (Or Lin.)
Sign Kanter.
Sign Noel.
Sign Rudy Gay.
Trade for Augustin.
Sign Satoranksy.
Sign Danny Green.
Sign Jeremy Lamb.
Sign Thaddeus Young.

Some moves may set up later moves.

They are likely focusing first on bigger, flashier moves. Should consider lots of things. Carefully and overall. They could consider re-signing some of their own free agents at the right price. I'd still be very open to trading almost anyone. It comes down to filling out a design with better shooting, rebounding, FT rate and professionalism.

Crow
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Joined: Thu Apr 14, 2011 11:10 pm

Re: Fixing the Lakers

Post by Crow » Wed Apr 10, 2019 7:33 am

Of these options I might prioritize: Rubio or Satoransky, Curry, Green, Kleber or Bjelica and Looney.

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