2011 East Conf. Finals - Bulls vs Heat

[Mike G]

Bulls 1, Heat 0
score 103 - 82
Pythagorean .95 - .05
eWins .73 - .27

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eWins   per36 rates   tm   mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast    PF   Stl   TO   Blk   e480
.16   Deng,Luol      Chi   45   .636   22.8   6.4   1.9   1.6   3.3    .0   .8   1.73
.16   Bosh,Chris     Mia   37   .714   36.6  10.1    .0   3.0    .0   2.0   .0   2.09
.16   Rose,Derrick   Chi   38   .560   36.8   1.1   7.0    .0    .0   3.9   .0   1.98
.12   Boozer,Carlos  Chi   26   .583   27.0  14.5   3.4   2.9   1.4   1.4   .0   2.25
.12   Noah,Joakim    Chi   36   .300    7.1  16.2   5.5   1.0   2.1   1.0  2.0   1.56

.09   James,Lebron   Mia   41   .441   11.2   6.1   6.1   1.8   1.8   3.6  2.7   1.00
.07   Gibson,Taj     Chi   23   .529   15.8  11.3   3.5   4.3    .0   1.4  2.8   1.42
.05   Wade,Dwyane    Mia   39   .474   15.5   3.2   3.2    .9   2.8   3.8   .0    .65
.05   Watson,C.J.    Chi   10   .375    9.1   6.8  18.8    .0   3.0    .0   .0   2.25
.04   Brewer,Ronnie  Chi   19   .667   17.8   5.7    .0   1.7   1.7    .0   .0    .92

eWins   per36 rates   tm   mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast    PF   Stl   TO   Blk   e480
.02   Asik,Omer      Chi   11   .833   26.6   6.2    .0    .0    .0   5.5   .0    .86
.01   Anthony,Joel   Mia   31   .000     .0   8.1    .0   3.6   1.2    .0  3.6    .18
.01  Magloire,Jamaal Mia   10   .500    4.9   6.8    .0   3.0   3.0    .0   .0    .25
.00   Bogans,Keith   Chi   15   .375    6.1   0.0   3.1   4.9   2.5    .0   .0    .06
.00   Korver,Kyle    Chi   17   .500    5.9   0.0   2.3   3.7   1.9    .0   .0   -.08

-.01  Chalmers,Mario Mia   23   .643   15.0   1.6    .0   2.9    .0   4.3   .0   -.16
-.01  Bibby,Mike     Mia   23   .500    6.0   3.6   3.5    .0    .0   3.2   .0   -.17
-.02  Jones,James    Mia   24   .800    6.7   1.6    .0   4.1    .0    .0   .0   -.33

Eff% Mia .543 - .531 Chi
Reb Chi 45 - 33 Mia
TO Mia 16 - 9 Chi

[Mike G]

This is out of order.
Preview ranking players by likely impact, based on first 2 rounds of playoffs.
Bulls total .62 eW/G and Heat .61 (including Z)

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eW/G    rounds 1-2      tm    G   mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   PF   Stl   TO   Blk   e480
.188   Wade,Dwyane     Mia   10   39   .558   29.0   8.0   5.7   2.4  1.6   2.7  1.2   2.75
.184   James,Lebron    Mia   10   44   .557   25.3   8.9   5.1   1.8  1.1   2.0  1.1   2.45
.183   Rose,Derrick    Chi   11   40   .516   30.7   4.6   8.2   1.7  1.4   3.3   .8   2.63
.093   Bosh,Chris      Mia   10   39   .509   16.4  10.4   1.3   2.0   .9   1.6  1.0   1.37
.088   Noah,Joakim     Chi   11   33   .525   12.5  13.3   2.8   4.4   .9   1.3  2.4   1.56

.079   Deng,Luol       Chi   11   43   .513   15.0   6.2   2.9   1.8  1.1   1.0   .5   1.06
.069   Boozer,Carlos   Chi   11   31   .488   15.5  12.9   2.5   3.7   .5   2.5   .3   1.29
.036   Gibson,Taj      Chi   11   18   .578   14.7   9.3   1.2   3.6   .7   1.9  2.9   1.20
.023   Korver,Kyle     Chi   11   18   .532   16.3   2.3   3.1   3.7  1.3   2.0   .3    .68
.021  Ilgauskas,Zydrun Mia    9   12   .447   11.5  12.7   1.6   6.1   .0   3.6  1.1    .71

eW/G    rounds 1-2      tm    G   mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   PF   Stl   TO   Blk   e480
.015   Chalmers,Mario  Mia   10   25   .512    9.4   3.3   3.7   3.4  1.8   1.5   .0    .35
.013   Bogans,Keith    Chi   11   19   .642   11.3   3.0   1.6   2.5  1.4    .5   .3    .39
.007   Thomas,Kurt     Chi    5    9   .636   12.1   7.7   1.6   5.0   .7   1.4  1.4    .78
.011   Watson,C.J.     Chi   11    9   .393   12.2   3.9   8.3   3.9  2.0   5.3   .0    .70
.011   Jones,James     Mia   10   25   .677   11.2   4.4    .3   2.9   .8    .6   .3    .26

.008   Brewer,Ronnie   Chi   11   14   .470    6.3   5.5   2.8   1.7  1.3    .9   .8    .32
.003   Anthony,Joel    Mia   10   31   .531    5.0   7.4    .6   2.6   .2   1.0  1.8    .05
.001   Asik,Omer       Chi   11    9   .408    2.7  10.0    .3   4.2   .6   1.6  1.9    .03
.001   Miller,Mike     Mia    7    5   .223    3.1   7.2   5.0   3.0   .0   3.0   .0   -.17
-.008   Bibby,Mike     Mia   10   21   .330    4.9   4.2   2.4   2.4   .5   1.7   .7   -.21

Z is/was the Heat's best rebounder, and without him for game 1, they got trounced.
eW/G are scaled to total 1.0, while other rates (including eW/480 min) are results of rounds 1-2.

[Mike G]

Bulls 1 , Heat 1
avg score Chi 89 - 83.5 Mia
Pythagorean 1.40 - .60
eWins 1.20 - .80

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eWins   per36 rates   tm   mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast    PF   Stl   TO   Blk   e480
.33   James,Lebron   Mia   44   .530   21.0   6.9   5.1   2.1   2.1   3.8  1.2   1.82
.33   Rose,Derrick   Chi   40   .462   25.6   3.5   6.9   1.4    .5   2.7   .0   1.96
.27   Wade,Dwyane    Mia   40   .525   21.9   5.7   2.5   1.8   1.8   2.3   .9   1.63
.24   Bosh,Chris     Mia   40   .667   22.6   8.1   1.0   1.8    .0   1.8   .0   1.43
.22   Boozer,Carlos  Chi   27   .457   16.6  13.2   3.1   2.8   2.1   2.1  1.4   2.00

.21   Noah,Joakim    Chi   34   .360    9.5  13.2   3.0   2.7   1.6   1.1  1.6   1.45
.17   Deng,Luol      Chi   46   .523   15.5   5.3   1.7   2.0   1.6   1.6   .4    .89
.13   Brewer,Ronnie  Chi   18   .625   18.5   7.6   2.1   1.0   2.9    .0   .0   1.81
.12   Gibson,Taj     Chi   22   .531   15.1   6.9   1.7   3.9    .0    .8  3.8   1.32
.08   Haslem,Udonis  Mia   14   .520   18.0   6.4   2.8   3.7   1.2   1.2  1.2   1.44

eWins   per36 rates   tm   mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast    PF   Stl   TO   Blk   e480
.07   Watson,C.J.    Chi    8   .357   10.8   6.9  11.4   4.1   2.1    .0   .0   2.00
.04   Miller,Mike    Mia   11   .500    3.1  16.5   1.8   4.8   1.6    .0   .0    .90
.02  Magloire,Jamaal Mia    8   .500    9.8   9.1   2.5   8.8   2.2   2.2   .0    .57
.00   Bogans,Keith   Chi   16   .400    9.1   2.7   1.3   6.1   1.2    .0   .0    .04
-.01  Bibby,Mike     Mia   29   .409    5.5   2.6   4.3   1.9    .0   1.3   .6   -.10

-.02  Korver,Kyle    Chi   18   .300    4.7   4.3   1.1   5.8   1.0    .0   .0   -.28
-.02  Asik,Omer      Chi   14   .714    8.4   5.4    .0   2.4    .0   3.6  1.2   -.40
-.03  Jones,James    Mia   13   .800    6.4   1.3    .0   3.9    .0    .0   .0   -.62
-.04  Anthony,Joel   Mia   27   .000     .0   5.8    .8   4.9   1.4   1.4  2.8   -.39
-.06  Chalmers,Mario Mia   14   .563   13.1   1.2    .0   6.0    .0   7.2  1.2   -.97

Eff% Mia .537 - .464 Chi
Reb/G Chi 43 - 39 Mia
TO Mia 15.5 - 9.5

[Bobbofitos]

Bulls 1 , Heat 1

Omer Asik not getting boxscore love. The Bulls are +12 when he is on the court, -1 when off it. Has played most of both game's 4th Qs. (Didn't play from 7:48 to 2:14 in G1, all but the final 4:35 of G2). Is he really contributing negative wins, or is he doing things (a lot of things) that aren't getting notched in the boxscore? Not that it's a major triumph limiting Miami centers, but his counterpart has yet to score on him as well.

Edited to take out the entire printout, no need for it twice!

[Mike G]

In 28 minutes, Asik has 5 pts, 4 reb, 3 TO, 2 PF, 1 Blk. That's just a pretty wimpy line.
When I see Noah tear down a rebound, dribble, pass, and finish the break, I think I've just watched him do 4 things that Asik cannot do, all in a few seconds.
Last night, a bloody chin took him out, and I was really glad, to see Noah return. I don't know what Thibodeau was thinking. Neither Asik nor Gibson was effective in the 4th, as 2 of the Bulls' 3 best players watched from the bench.
Asik barely played vs Indiana, was barely useful vs Atlanta, now has the job against Miami? Kurt Thomas is better, and Thibs is gambling.

[J.E.]

Omer Asik not getting boxscore love. The Bulls are +12 when he is on the court, -1 when off it. Has played most of both game's 4th Qs. (Didn't play from 7:48 to 2:14 in G1, all but the final 4:35 of G2). Is he really contributing negative wins, or is he doing things (a lot of things) that aren't getting notched in the boxscore? Not that it's a major triumph limiting Miami centers, but his counterpart has yet to score on him as well.

Watching him play defense is pretty cool. Last night in the 4th quarter, Wade beat his man 4 times, then ran into Asik each time. Got blocked once and had to throw up an off-balance pass after a single-legged jump the other three times. A lot of his defense seems to be "shot prevention". You don't immidiatly get the ball but you force the opponent into a tougher shot.

On a similar note, from the handful of Bulls games I've seen I get the feeling that he's one of the best P&R defenders in the league

[Bobbofitos]

In 28 minutes, Asik has 5 pts, 4 reb, 3 TO, 2 PF, 1 Blk. That's just a pretty wimpy line.
When I see Noah tear down a rebound, dribble, pass, and finish the break, I think I've just watched him do 4 things that Asik cannot do, all in a few seconds.
Last night, a bloody chin took him out, and I was really glad, to see Noah return. I don't know what Thibodeau was thinking. Neither Asik nor Gibson was effective in the 4th, as 2 of the Bulls' 3 best players watched from the bench.
Asik barely played vs Indiana, was barely useful vs Atlanta, now has the job against Miami? Kurt Thomas is better, and Thibs is gambling.

I'm not saying Noah is not amazing. I think he's great - the Bulls are stacked with quality bigs. That said:

Omer Asik not getting boxscore love. The Bulls are +12 when he is on the court, -1 when off it. Has played most of both game's 4th Qs. (Didn't play from 7:48 to 2:14 in G1, all but the final 4:35 of G2). Is he really contributing negative wins, or is he doing things (a lot of things) that aren't getting notched in the boxscore? Not that it's a major triumph limiting Miami centers, but his counterpart has yet to score on him as well.

Watching him play defense is pretty cool. Last night in the 4th quarter, Wade beat his man 4 times, then ran into Asik each time. Got blocked once and had to throw up an off-balance pass after a single-legged jump the other three times. A lot of his defense seems to be "shot prevention". You don't immidiatly get the ball but you force the opponent into a tougher shot.

On a similar note, from the handful of Bulls games I've seen I get the feeling that he's one of the best P&R defenders in the league

This, basically. It's nice looking at a RAPM list, for example, and then trying to apply what the results spit out into a sort of "why is this metric telling me these things?" mindset. Again, Noah is no slouch, so none of this takes away from him. But with Asik, opponents simply never get to the rim. Many of his challenges aren't considered blocks, but they have the same impact: A missed shot or no shot at all.

strange extension, but that's another thing about defense that isn't really talked about much, which is forcing your opponent to shift shot locations. Every certain shot location has a certain EV, and simply moving opponents away from the rim (or away from the 3pt line)... Or both... Well, that has just as much (if not more, depending on the volume) value as simply lowering efficiency from said location.

Anyway, Mike, I feel I keep doing this with big men who are defensive oriented in terms of ewins... Their defensive impact is not counted on the conventional boxscore, and therefore, are getting rubbed the wrong way. Big men defenders who protect the paint are very valuable, even if they themselves aren't the ones grabbing the rebound to end a possession.

[greyberger]

For what it's worth Bulls opponents shot just 43.4% eFG while Asik was on the floor in the reg. season. 47.2% off.

Gibson, Brewer and Watson surely have something to do with that mark, and they rate well in that category too.

[Crow]

Jerry's multi-season point per shot defensive factor estimates Asik has a 2.4 point helpful impact on scoring defense per 100 possessions (shots from the field and line together).

http://stats-for-the-nba.appspot.com/pps

That is 23rd best of 684 qualifiers in the 4 year time period or top 4% impact on this combined defensive factor.

Gibson is 20th best. Brewer 322. Watson 111. Rose 135. Noah 76. Boozer 658. Bogans 595. Deng 19.


On full defensive RAPM for just this year, Asik rates 5th best of 462 on about top 1%.

Gibson is 48th best. Brewer 6. Watson 32. Rose 80. Noah 206. Boozer 380. Bogans 173. Deng 2nd.

How many of these rankings are "right" or at least close to the "correct" quartile? I don't know. But I think there is value in at least looking at and considering the information and comparing it to other stats and observation. Other stats that lack much good defensive information and almost always lack shot / scoring defense unless it is tacked on in as a team level adjustment. Observation will vary in accuracy.

Where RAPM and observation of an informed & frequent observer agree I'd think it is more likely to be true / at least in that quartile than where they disagree by a wide margin but there may be some mistakes with this approach (estimates outside the right quartile). There will be mistakes also with methods that don't attempt to address shot / scoring defense at all or do so in a simple / crude fashion.


How much is really player excellence and how much is coaching excellence? Jerry's 5 year RAPM with coaches give Thibodeau a +3.1 overall defensive impact estimate (7th best of 901 "participants"), Asik +1.7, Gibson +0.9. Brewer +1.2. Watson +0.9. Rose -0.4. Noah +0.9. Boozer -1.0. Bogans -0.1. Deng +2.5. RAPM suggest the Bulls have 2 very good or great defenders and 4 good ones in the main rotation and a great defensive coach. That sounds about right to me.

[Mike G]

Heat 2 , Bulls 1
avg score 87.7 - 87.7
Pyth and eWins 1.50 apiece

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eWins   per36 rates   tm   mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast    PF   Stl   TO   Blk   e480
.59   James,Lebron   Mia   44   .559   21.5   6.5   7.8   2.5   1.9   2.5  1.4   2.15
.48   Bosh,Chris     Mia   41   .698   28.4   7.0   1.5   1.8    .6   1.8   .3   1.88
.43   Boozer,Carlos  Chi   31   .490   20.7  15.8   2.0   2.8   1.2   1.6  1.6   2.26
.40   Rose,Derrick   Chi   40   .469   23.0   4.3   6.0   1.5    .6   2.4   .0   1.60
.35   Wade,Dwyane    Mia   39   .492   20.3   6.9   3.5   1.9   1.2   2.8   .6   1.41

.21   Noah,Joakim    Chi   32   .317    6.4  11.9   4.5   3.8   1.1   1.5  1.9   1.04
.19   Deng,Luol      Chi   44   .527   14.4   6.3   1.1   2.2   1.4   1.9   .3    .70
.17   Gibson,Taj     Chi   19   .609   20.2   7.8   1.2   4.3    .0   1.2  3.0   1.49
.12   Haslem,Udonis  Mia   17   .538   15.9   6.4   2.7   2.7   1.3   1.3   .7   1.12
.11   Brewer,Ronnie  Chi   20   .528   12.0   4.6   1.8    .6   2.9    .0   .0    .88

eWins   per36 rates   tm   mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast    PF   Stl   TO   Blk   e480
.07   Watson,C.J.    Chi    8   .389    9.5   4.7   9.7   4.0   1.3    .0   .0   1.30
.02  Magloire,Jamaal Mia    5   .500   10.0   9.5   3.0   8.9   2.2   2.2   .0    .74
.01   Anthony,Joel   Mia   27   .300    1.1   5.8   1.9   4.5    .9    .9  4.0    .07
.01   Bibby,Mike     Mia   28   .469    6.7   3.2   3.6   2.2    .4   1.3   .4    .06
.00   Miller,Mike    Mia   11   .250    1.5  10.5   1.4   4.9   1.0   1.0   .0    .00

-.02  Korver,Kyle    Chi   15   .375    5.8   4.3    .8   7.4    .7    .0   .0   -.16
-.02  Bogans,Keith   Chi   16   .429    8.9   2.7    .8   5.4    .8   1.5   .0   -.21
-.03  Jones,James    Mia    9   .800    6.6   1.4    .0   3.9    .0    .0   .0   -.47
-.03  Chalmers,Mario Mia   16   .625   13.2   1.5   1.9   4.2    .0   4.9   .7   -.28
-.05  Asik,Omer      Chi   14   .385    3.8   4.6    .0   3.2    .8   2.4   .8   -.55

Eff% - Mia .555 - .470 Chi
Reb/G - Chi 42.3 - 36.7 Mia
TO - Mia 13.7 - 10.0 Chi

[Mike G]

Somewhere around here, I predicted DRose would be 'mvp' of 2 games in this series. Subtracting the running total of eWins from previous summaries, here's a simple look at game-by-game eWins for these EC finals.

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eWins  games 1-2-3:  tm    1     2     3
.59   James,Lebron  Mia   .09   .24   .26
.48   Bosh,Chris    Mia   .16   .08   .24
.43   Boozer,Carlos Chi   .12   .10   .21
.40   Rose,Derrick  Chi   .16   .17   .07
.35   Wade,Dwyane   Mia   .05   .22   .08

.21   Noah,Joakim   Chi   .12   .09   .00
.19   Deng,Luol     Chi   .16   .01   .02
.17   Gibson,Taj    Chi   .07   .05   .05
.12   Haslem,Udonis Mia   .00   .08   .04
.11   Brewer,Ronnie Chi   .04   .09  -.02

While Wade and Bosh busted out in G2 and G3 respectively, LeBron was the orchestrator.
Give Rose 1/3 of a 'game ball' thus far?

[Mike G]

Heat 3 , Bulls 1
avg score 91 - 89
pythagorean 2.29 - 1.71
eWins 2.15 - 1.85

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eWins   per36 rates   tm   mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast    PF   Stl   TO   Blk   e480
.88   James,Lebron   Mia   45   .552   23.4   6.2   7.5   2.6   1.8   2.8  1.6   2.35
.63   Bosh,Chris     Mia   41   .681   27.4   6.8   1.4   2.4    .4   1.8   .2   1.82
.58   Boozer,Carlos  Chi   35   .504   18.7  13.7   2.1   2.9   1.0   1.3  1.0   1.97
.45   Rose,Derrick   Chi   42   .442   20.2   3.8   5.7   1.7    .9   3.3   .0   1.27
.41   Wade,Dwyane    Mia   40   .468   17.2   6.6   3.0   2.1   1.4   2.5  1.1   1.25

.33   Deng,Luol      Chi   44   .544   15.2   6.7   1.2   2.5   1.6   2.1   .6    .89
.30   Noah,Joakim    Chi   36   .313    5.0  12.4   4.7   4.2   1.3   1.6  1.5   1.00
.15   Gibson,Taj     Chi   17   .583   15.7   7.0   1.0   4.5    .0   1.0  2.5   1.06
.12   Brewer,Ronnie  Chi   20   .578   11.8   4.4   1.3   1.2   2.1    .0   .4    .72
.10   Haslem,Udonis  Mia   21   .451    9.0   7.8   2.8   3.2   1.2   2.0   .4    .54

eWins   per36 rates   tm   mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast    PF   Stl   TO   Blk   e480
.09   Watson,C.J.    Chi    8   .500   15.0   4.7   7.3   3.0   1.0   1.0   .0   1.36
.09   Miller,Mike    Mia   15   .583    7.8  11.5   1.5   3.3   1.1    .6   .0    .73
.06   Anthony,Joel   Mia   28   .357    1.3   6.3   1.9   4.7   1.3   1.0  4.3    .25
.05   Chalmers,Mario Mia   18   .750   16.4   1.0   1.3   3.3   1.9   3.3   .5    .34
.02  Magloire,Jamaal Mia    4   .500    9.4   9.5   3.0   8.6   2.2   2.2   .0    .67

-.03  Jones,James    Mia    7   .800    6.4   1.4    .0   3.8    .0    .0   .0   -.55
-.03  Bogans,Keith   Chi   18   .450    8.8   2.4   1.6   4.7    .5   2.1   .5   -.21
-.03  Bibby,Mike     Mia   27   .455    6.5   3.1   3.0   2.4    .3   1.7   .3   -.15
-.06  Korver,Kyle    Chi   16   .378    6.1   3.7   1.1   7.0    .5   1.6   .0   -.45
-.07  Asik,Omer      Chi   11   .385    3.1   4.2    .0   4.4    .7   2.2   .7   -.70

shooting% Mia .550 - .472 Mia
Reb/G - Chi 41.2 - 36.8 Chi
TO - Mia 14.0 - 12.8 Chi

[Mike G]

Heat 4 , Bulls 1
avg score 89.4 - 87.2
pythagorean wins 2.91 - 2.09
eWins 2.71 - 2.29

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eWins   per36 rates   tm   mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast    PF   Stl   TO   Blk   e480
1.22  James,Lebron   Mia   45   .556   24.8   6.8   7.4   2.4   1.9   2.9  1.6   2.59
.84   Bosh,Chris     Mia   41   .655   26.7   7.2   1.4   2.1    .5   1.8   .9   1.95
.62   Rose,Derrick   Chi   42   .430   20.6   4.0   6.1   2.3    .9   3.3   .2   1.41
.59   Boozer,Carlos  Chi   33   .483   16.5  12.8   1.8   3.3    .9   1.1   .9   1.69
.53   Wade,Dwyane    Mia   39   .487   19.5   6.4   3.0   2.4   1.5   3.7   .9   1.28

.45   Deng,Luol      Chi   43   .524   16.3   6.8   1.7   2.9   1.5   2.2   .5   1.02
.37   Noah,Joakim    Chi   34   .333    5.2  12.1   3.9   4.3   1.5   1.3  1.9   1.03
.18   Brewer,Ronnie  Chi   22   .632   12.8   4.2   1.2   1.8   1.8    .0   .6    .78
.12   Gibson,Taj     Chi   18   .519   10.5   7.8   1.1   4.0    .4   1.1  1.8    .65
.11   Watson,C.J.    Chi    8   .471   14.4   3.6   7.3   2.4   1.6    .8   .0   1.38

.11   Miller,Mike    Mia   17   .553    7.5  10.3   1.6   3.1    .8    .4   .0    .60
.04   Anthony,Joel   Mia   28   .381    1.7   5.4   1.5   4.5   1.3    .8  4.0    .14
.04   Thomas,Kurt    Chi    4   .400    6.5  16.3   1.9   3.6    .0   1.8  1.8   1.01
.04   Haslem,Udonis  Mia   22   .390    6.0   7.4   2.2   3.0    .9   1.5   .3    .16
.03   Chalmers,Mario Mia   18   .737   14.6   1.2   1.0   3.6   1.5   2.6   .4    .17

eWins   per36 rates   tm   mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast    PF   Stl   TO   Blk   e480
.02  Magloire,Jamaal Mia    3   .500    8.9   8.7   2.8   8.1   2.0   2.0   .0    .56
-.03  Jones,James    Mia    5   .800    6.2   1.3    .0   3.6    .0    .0   .0   -.60
-.03  Bogans,Keith   Chi   18   .460    8.6   2.3   1.6   4.8    .8   1.6   .4   -.18
-.06  Bibby,Mike     Mia   25   .385    5.0   2.9   3.5   2.4    .3   1.5   .3   -.24
-.07  Korver,Kyle    Chi   15   .422    7.0   2.9    .9   5.5    .4   1.7   .4   -.43
-.07  Asik,Omer      Chi    9   .385    3.0   3.9    .0   4.2    .7   2.1   .7   -.76

effective shooting% - Mia .541 - .465 Chi
Rebounds per game - Chi 42.8 - 38.6 Mia
turnovers per game - Mia 14.2 - 11.8 Chi

[Mike G]

Game by game eWins, derived by subtracting previous totals.

Code: Select all

eWins   Chicago         G1     G2     G3     G4     G5
.62    Rose,Derrick    .16    .17    .07    .05    .17
.59    Boozer,Carlos   .12    .10    .21    .15    .01
.45    Deng,Luol       .16    .01    .02    .14    .12
.37    Noah,Joakim     .12    .09    .00    .09    .07
.18    Brewer,Ronnie   .04    .09   -.02    .01    .06
.12    Gibson,Taj      .07    .05    .05   -.02   -.03
.11    Watson,C.J.     .05    .02    .00    .02    .02
-.03   Bogans,Keith    .00    .00   -.02   -.01    .00
-.07   Korver,Kyle     .00   -.02    .00   -.04   -.01
-.07   Asik,Omer       .02   -.04   -.03   -.02    .00

eWins   Miami           G1     G2     G3     G4     G5
1.22   James,Lebron    .09    .24    .26    .29    .34
.84    Bosh,Chris      .16    .08    .24    .15    .21
.53    Wade,Dwyane     .05    .22    .08    .06    .12
.11    Miller,Mike     .00    .04   -.04    .09    .02
.04    Anthony,Joel    .01   -.05    .05    .05   -.02
.04    Haslem,Udonis   .00    .08    .04   -.02   -.06
.03    Chalmers,Mario -.01   -.05    .03    .08   -.02
.02    Magloire,Jamaal .01    .01    .00    .00    .00
-.03   Jones,James    -.02   -.01    .00    .00    .00
-.06   Bibby,Mike     -.01    .00    .02   -.04   -.03

Rose appears to have been no higher than the 3rd most important player in any game. In a virtual 3-way tie for best of game 1.
LeBron the mvp of the last 4 games.

[erivera7]

Fascinating that LeBron got "stronger" as the series progressed. He was phenomenal.