Regularization prevents overfitting and that is not an overfitting issue here anyway. It has also NOTHING to do with the prior informations, because Carter is leading in non-prior informed version and Love has only 0.3 in the same.bbstats wrote:Eeeee. I love it. Box score versus plus-minus!
Love is definitely overrated, but as I noted before (here), APM and rAPM treat him quite differently.
As Daniel has suggested, perhaps the priors are inflating older players? Overfitting is still possible in the rAPM world, right?
EDIT: I mean, it makes sense that rAPM could be underrating younger players as it hasn't built 'confidence' about them and is therefore 'regressing' them. Maybe?
And the issue is indeed defense with Love. He does a bit better than last season, but he is still not going for the close out, because he is more concerned with getting the rebound. He is still not going quickly back on defense, there are numerous situations in which Love is going for the offensive rebound while not having the chance to get the ball. Love is still way too often going for the ball first and not for the man in defensive rebounding situations or is skipping a rotation in order to be in a better position for the rebound. That helps his rebounding numbers, but not the defense. Love is overrated by boxscore numbers, his overall impact on the game is much lower than any boxscore-based metric will show. He got compared to Moses Malone last season, and in fact Malone wasn't so much better in the end (better defensively, but not by much). High boxscore numbers, but his teams didn't play that much different when he was out, as we would expected when we see such numbers. Even during his peak seasons with the 76ers he hardly made more than 2 to 3 points difference, clearly less than we saw by other players in the history.
Love is rather similar, and he will get even more overrated when the team around him gets better and he doesn't improve a lot defensively.