2012 West Conf playoffs 1st round

[Mike G]

Clipps 3, Grizz 2
avg score: Mem 95.6 - 93.0 LAC
Pyth wins: Mem 2.95 - 2.05 LAC; eWins: 2.73 - 2.27
now with "defensive" credit

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eWins   per36 rates   tm   mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e480
.84   Paul,Chris      LAC   40  .577   22.8   5.1   7.4   2.5   3.1   .2   1.99
.63   Conley,Mike     Mem   39  .598   17.2   3.9   8.1    .6   2.1   .0   1.55
.59   Gasol,Marc      Mem   37  .566   14.2   8.0   4.0    .2   1.4  1.8   1.54
.57   Griffin,Blake   LAC   37  .561   21.8   7.7   2.4   2.0   2.9   .0   1.47
.39   Gay,Rudy        Mem   40  .502   19.1   6.9   1.4   1.3   2.7   .0    .94

.38   Randolph,Zach   Mem   34  .483   14.6  10.7   1.3   1.1   1.9   .2   1.06
.28   Evans,Reggie    LAC   23  .500    4.8  13.5    .0   1.5   1.5   .3   1.17
.20  Speights,Marrees Mem   16  .487   15.3  12.1   1.0    .8    .8   .8   1.26
.18   Jordan,Deandre  LAC   22  .500    5.7   7.8   1.0    .3   2.0  3.9    .80
.18   Mayo,O.J.       Mem   24  .454   15.4   5.8   3.8   2.0   4.2   .3    .73

eWins   per36 rates   tm   mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e480
.16  Pondexter,Quincy Mem   17  .794   13.6   6.0    .5   1.1   1.1   .0    .89
.15   Allen,Tony      Mem   23  .493   10.0   6.0   1.1   1.5   1.5  1.5    .62
.12   Williams,Mo     LAC   23  .500   16.7   1.9   2.9    .9   2.4   .6    .51
.08   Young,Nick      LAC   19  .656   15.7   1.9    .4    .3   1.4  1.0    .39
.07   Foye,Randy      LAC   28  .565   10.7   3.7   2.5    .3   2.1   .3    .26

.07   Bledsoe,Eric    LAC   12  .487   10.2   4.7   2.9   1.1   1.6   .5    .55
.02   Butler,Caron    LAC   20  .432   11.9   3.9   1.2   1.1   2.5   .3    .08
.01   Martin,Kenyon   LAC   17  .429    3.8   5.1    .0    .8   1.2  3.5    .06
.01 Cunningham,Dante  Mem    9  .375    3.1   7.7    .0    .7    .7  1.4    .09

shooting: LAC .542 - .521 Mem
rebounds: Mem 40.6 - 35.5 LAC
turnovers: Mem 13.8 - 15.2 LAC

[Mike G]

Nuggets 3, Lakers 3
avg score: Den 98.3 - 96.3 LA
Pyth wins 3.40 - 2.60; eWins 3.20 - 2.80

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eWins   per36 rates   tm  mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e480
.86   Bynum,Andrew    LA   37  .598   18.5  10.5   1.2    .2   1.2  3.6   1.89
.82   Bryant,Kobe     LA   40  .531   29.3   4.4   3.3   1.2   3.0   .2   1.65
.66   Lawson,Ty      Den   33  .553   21.5   2.2   5.3   1.3   1.1   .2   1.58
.54   Miller,Andre   Den   29  .543   17.3   5.6   5.8   1.9   2.5   .2   1.51
.51   Mcgee,Javale   Den   25  .482   12.9  12.2    .8   1.0   1.0  4.2   1.63

.47   Faried,Kenneth Den   29  .549   15.0  11.8    .5    .8   2.1  1.7   1.29
.41   Gasol,Pau       LA   36  .444   10.1   7.4   3.2    .7   1.2  2.2    .92
.39 Gallinari,Danilo Den   33  .469   16.0   5.7   2.1    .7    .9   .6    .97
.32   Brewer,Corey   Den   18  .551   20.5   4.0   1.7   2.1    .7   .7   1.47
.24   Sessions,Ramon  LA   35  .470   12.8   3.9   3.6    .5   1.6   .0    .56

eWins   per36 rates   tm  mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e480
.22   Hill,Jordan     LA   22  .450    9.1  12.8    .2    .3   1.4  1.1    .81
.16   Ebanks,Devin    LA   18  .458   10.5   6.2   1.4   1.0    .7  1.7    .74
.12   Afflalo,Arron  Den   32  .439   10.5   3.9   2.4    .9   1.5   .2    .30
.11   Mozgov,Timofey Den   14  .464   11.0   7.9   1.1    .9   1.8  1.8    .65
.10   Harrington,Al  Den   22  .349    9.1   7.2   1.1    .5    .5   .3    .35

.06   Blake,Steve     LA   27  .485    7.0   3.1   3.2    .9   1.1   .2    .18
.02   Barnes,Matt     LA   22  .310    5.9   6.2   3.1   1.6   2.7  1.4    .08
-.02   Koufos,Kosta  Den    5  .333    2.1  14.6    .0    .0   4.2  1.4   -.29

shooting: LA .493 - .492 Den
rebounding: LA 47.0 - 46.7 Den
turnovers: Den 9.5 - 11.5 LA

[Crow]

"... now with 'defensive' credit..."

what changed?

[Mike G]

Credit is given for minutes played with fewer than avg FGA.
NBA avg is right around 3 minutes per FGA, so I use the ratio (Min/FGA/3).
Kobe is at .51, Gasol is at 1.02, Steve Blake is 1.65, in the playoffs.
So Gasol shoots as often as NBA avg, Kobe twice as often, and Blake plays 65% more minutes than normal to get his shot attempts.

So it's not entirely a "defensive" adjustment, but a "non offense/boxscore" adjustment.
I'm taking the square root (or close) of these ratios: Kobe's rate total is multiplied by .74 and Blake's by 1.25

The adjustment will be more complex for regular season, but for single-opponent playoff series, it may work this way.

[Crow]

Seems pretty consistent that in the first round teams averaged about 5-6 guys who were +0.02 per game or better on eWins. That would probably suggest that benches don't matter much. Not sure immediately if I agree on that basis alone.

[Mike G]

Grizzlies 3, Clippers 3
Avg score: Mem 94.7 - 92.2 LAC
Pyth wins: 3.53 - 2.47; eWins 3.26 - 2.74

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eWins   per36 rates   tm  mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e480
.94   Paul,Chris     LAC   40  .569   21.6   5.2   7.7   2.6   3.1   .2   1.90
.75   Gasol,Marc     Mem   37  .580   16.4   8.3   4.0    .3   1.6  1.6   1.62
.75   Conley,Mike    Mem   40  .597   16.8   3.9   8.5    .5   2.3   .0   1.51
.73   Griffin,Blake  LAC   37  .567   22.2   7.3   3.2   2.2   2.7   .0   1.59
.54   Randolph,Zach  Mem   35  .475   15.1  12.1   1.3   1.0   1.9   .7   1.23

.45   Gay,Rudy       Mem   40  .491   18.0   6.9   1.8   1.2   2.6   .2    .91
.35   Evans,Reggie   LAC   23  .479    5.3  13.6    .0   1.5   1.5  1.0   1.20
.24   Jordan,Deandre LAC   21  .500    6.8   7.8    .9    .6   1.7  3.6    .90
.23 Speights,Marrees Mem   15  .500   16.0  12.3    .9    .7   1.4  1.1   1.21
.18   Mayo,O.J.      Mem   23  .464   14.6   5.3   4.0   1.7   4.1   .2    .63

eWins   per36 rates   tm  mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e480
.16   Bledsoe,Eric   LAC   14  .500   13.3   5.0   4.7   1.2   1.6   .4    .95
.16   Allen,Tony     Mem   25  .461    9.7   5.4   1.2   1.7   2.0  1.7    .53
.16 Pondexter,Quincy Mem   17  .769   13.1   5.9    .8   1.0   1.6   .0    .75
.09   Williams,Mo    LAC   21  .461   14.9   1.7   2.7   1.1   2.1   .5    .35
.07   Foye,Randy     LAC   27  .505   10.5   3.3   2.7    .4   2.0   .2    .20

.06   Martin,Kenyon  LAC   17  .550    6.7   4.7    .0    .6    .9  3.4    .28
.06   Young,Nick     LAC   19  .611   13.5   1.6    .3    .9   1.2   .9    .24
.01   Butler,Caron   LAC   22  .453   11.7   3.2    .9    .8   1.9   .3    .03

shooting: LAC .531 - .517 Mem
rebounding: Mem 41.8 - 34.9 LAC
turnovers LAC 13.8 - 14.8 Mem

[Mike G]

Los Angeles Lakers 4, Denver Nuggets 3
Average score: Den 96.7 - 96.3 LA
Pythagorean wins: Den 3.60 - 3.40 LA; eWins 3.55 - 3.45

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eWins   per36 rates   tm  mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e480
.92   Bryant,Kobe     LA   40  .526   27.8   3.8   4.0   1.0   2.9   .3   1.56
.85   Bynum,Andrew    LA   37  .557   17.4  10.9   1.2    .3   1.1  3.8   1.55
.75   Lawson,Ty      Den   34  .561   21.9   2.5   5.6   1.0   1.2   .1   1.49
.64   Gasol,Pau       LA   36  .464   12.9   8.4   4.0    .7   1.1  2.4   1.21
.54   Mcgee,Javale   Den   26  .455   12.2  12.6    .9   1.0    .8  4.4   1.43

.53   Miller,Andre   Den   28  .491   15.2   6.6   7.0   1.6   3.1   .2   1.27
.44   Faried,Kenneth Den   28  .553   15.0  12.2    .7    .9   2.6  1.5   1.09
.38 Gallinari,Danilo Den   32  .443   15.4   5.4   2.6    .8   1.5   .7    .83
.31   Brewer,Corey   Den   17  .500   19.1   4.1   1.7   2.2    .6   .6   1.27
.28   Sessions,Ramon  LA   32  .448   13.1   3.5   4.2    .6   1.6   .0    .60

eWins   per36 rates   tm  mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e480
.26   Harrington,Al  Den   23  .412   14.8   6.3   1.3    .7    .7   .2    .76
.22   Afflalo,Arron  Den   33  .466   12.3   3.7   2.8    .8   1.4   .3    .47
.21   Blake,Steve     LA   28  .578   10.8   3.0   3.6   1.1   1.3   .4    .51
.19   Hill,Jordan     LA   20  .432    9.7  12.3    .2    .3   1.6  1.0    .65
.17   Ebanks,Devin    LA   15  .458   11.6   6.2   1.6   1.1    .7  1.8    .76

.13   Mozgov,Timofey Den   14  .483   11.0   8.1   1.0    .8   1.9  2.3    .61
.11   Barnes,Matt     LA   20  .304    7.1   6.9   3.6   1.9   2.9  1.3    .38
.09   Artest,Ron      LA    6  .469   12.3   3.8   1.5   3.2    .8  1.6    .93
-.01  Koufos,Kosta   Den    4  .333    2.6  14.5    .0    .0   4.3  1.4   -.20

Effective shooting: LA .489 - .486 Den
Rebounds per game: Den 47.6 - 47.3 LA
Turnovers per game: Den 10.7 - 11.4 LA

[Mike G]

Los Angeles Clippers 4, Memphis Grizzlies 3
Average score: Mem 91.4 - 90.7 LAC
Pythagorean wins: Mem 3.62 - 3.38 LAC; eWins 3.56 - 3.44

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eWins   per36 rates   tm  mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e480
1.13  Paul,Chris     LAC   39  .559   21.9   5.7   8.0   2.5   3.3   .1   2.00
.83   Gasol,Marc     Mem   37  .586   17.3   7.6   3.6    .3   1.8  1.8   1.52
.79   Griffin,Blake  LAC   35  .541   20.8   7.1   3.1   2.2   2.6   .3   1.52
.70   Conley,Mike    Mem   40  .538   14.4   3.5   7.9    .8   2.1   .0   1.21
.59   Randolph,Zach  Mem   35  .455   13.9  11.8   1.1   1.0   1.6   .6   1.13

.57   Gay,Rudy       Mem   40  .496   18.4   7.0   1.6   1.2   2.7   .3    .99
.38   Evans,Reggie   LAC   22  .479    5.1  14.6    .3   1.6   1.3  1.1   1.16
.28   Bledsoe,Eric   LAC   14  .513   16.2   5.4   6.2   1.4   1.8   .4   1.40
.28 Speights,Marrees Mem   14  .500   16.6  12.1    .9   1.0   1.7  1.0   1.34
.23   Mayo,O.J.      Mem   23  .411   13.1   6.3   4.1   1.9   3.9   .2    .68

eWins   per36 rates   tm  mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e480
.20   Jordan,Deandre LAC   22  .463    5.8   7.4    .9    .7   1.4  3.3    .63
.17   Martin,Kenyon  LAC   18  .589    9.5   6.9    .0    .5   1.1  3.5    .65
.17   Allen,Tony     Mem   24  .449   10.1   5.4   1.3   1.9   2.1  1.5    .49
.16   Williams,Mo    LAC   21  .466   16.0   1.5   3.0   1.2   2.1   .5    .53
.15 Pondexter,Quincy Mem   16  .733   12.9   5.7    .7   1.2   1.5   .0    .64

.14   Young,Nick     LAC   19  .606   16.8   2.0    .6    .8   1.6   .8    .49
.10   Foye,Randy     LAC   27  .495   10.8   3.3   3.2    .6   2.1   .2    .26
.10   Haddadi,Hamed  Mem    3  .833   11.4  16.7   1.9    .0   1.6  3.1   2.19
.03   Simmons,Bobby  LAC    3  .900   19.9   1.8    .0    .0    .0   .0    .71
.02   Butler,Caron   LAC   23  .418   11.5   3.8    .9    .9   2.0   .2    .06

.02 Cunningham,Dante Mem    7  .364    4.2   8.7    .0    .7    .7  1.3    .18
-.04  Arenas,Gilbert Mem    3  .250    3.7   1.6   1.7    .0   1.4   .0   -.89

Effective shooting: LAC .520 - .499 Mem
Rebounds per 48 min: Mem 42.1 - 36.5 LAC
Turnovers per game: LAC 14.1 - Mem 14.6