Ray Allen's 3 careers

[Mike G]

Subjectively, it seems Ray Allen's career has been almost equal thirds with each team he's been on.
Actually, he played by far the most games and minutes in Milwaukee.
He had by far his best scoring rates, and played the most minutes per game, in Seattle.
He's had by far the most team success, and 70% of his playoff minutes, in Boston.

His regular season per-36-minute shot attempts and percents, followed by other per36 rates:

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From   To    Tm     G     mpg  3fga  3fg%   2fga  2fg%   FTA   FT%    TSA   TS%    Pts
1997  2003   MIL   494   36.3   5.2  .406   10.0  .473   4.1  .879   17.0  .571   19.4
2003  2007   SEA   296   39.4   7.0  .386   10.7  .476   4.7  .899   19.7  .569   22.5
2008  2012   BOS   358   35.7   5.5  .409    7.1  .520   3.0  .914   13.9  .606   16.9

Tm     ORb   DRb   Reb   Ast    Stl   Blk    TO   PF
MIL   1.19   3.3   4.5   3.7   1.24   .19   2.4   2.5
SEA   1.00   3.2   4.2   3.8   1.20   .14   2.3   2.0
BOS    .71   2.7   3.4   2.8    .91   .22   1.6   2.0

As a Celtic, he improved all his efficiencies while shooting less, and with less productivity elsewhere.
He's made 10 all-star teams: 3 times in Mil, 4 times in Sea, 3 in Bos.
He was 3rd team all-NBA one time in Mil, a 2nd team in Seattle.
His 4 highest scoring years -- per game and per minute -- were his 4 full Sonic seasons.

Here's the same rack of numbers for his playoffs. Again, per 36 minutes.

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From   To    Tm     G    mpg   3fga  3fg%  2fga   2fg%  FTA   FT%    TSA   TS%    Pts
1997  2003   MIL   26   41.3   6.3  .463   11.7  .484   4.7  .884   20.0  .603   24.2
2003  2007   SEA   11   39.6   7.5  .378   12.1  .534   5.7  .889   22.1  .599   26.5
2008  2012   BOS   91   38.0   5.8  .387    6.2  .467   3.3  .880   13.5  .574   15.5
                                       
Tm     ORb   DRb   Reb   Ast    Stl   Blk    TO    PF               
MIL   1.42   3.5   5.0   5.2   1.35   .42   2.4   2.4               
SEA   1.09   3.2   4.3   3.9   1.27   .36   3.1   2.0               
BOS    .69   3.1   3.7   2.3    .98   .21   1.4   2.6               

[huevonkiller]

Ray Allen has been remarkably comparable to Paul Pierce in the playoffs the past few seasons, without the fanfare.

In the 2008 Finals he could have been the MVP, and had a higher Game Score per game.

[Mike G]

I had them ranked like this for the 2008 Finals:

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eWins '08 Celts  mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk  eW/48
.95   Garnett    38   .464   18.3  15.2   3.0   1.7   2.6  1.0   .199
.85   Pierce     39   .572   24.5   5.1   6.2   1.1   3.6   .3   .174
.75   Allen      41   .693   22.3   5.4   2.3   1.2   1.7   .6   .147
.56   Rondo      27   .421   13.2   6.4   9.6   2.1   2.1   .7   .164

No one else was over .086 eW/48 (House) or over .18 eWins (Posey)

[Mike G]

Most postseasons, Ray and Pierce have had almost identical effective shooting %.
But otherwise, Pierce looks like the better player every year.

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per36  yr   G  Min   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk  eWins  e480
RA   2008   26  38  .567   17.5   4.3   2.6    .9   1.4   .3   2.1   1.00
PP   2008   26  38  .557   23.4   5.6   4.3   1.1   3.1   .3   3.2   1.57
                                  
RA   2009   14  39  .545   17.3   3.9   2.2   1.0   1.7   .3   1.0    .90
PP   2009   14  39  .541   20.0   5.8   2.5   1.0   2.2   .3   1.4   1.20
                                  
RA   2010   24  39  .563   17.1   3.5   2.4    .9   1.4   .1   1.7    .88
PP   2010   24  39  .554   20.4   6.2   3.0    .9   2.5   .5   2.8   1.43
                                  
RA   2011    9  40  .706   20.9   3.7   2.4   1.1   1.0   .1    .9   1.24
PP   2011    9  38  .567   22.3   5.3   3.0   1.3   2.6   .4   1.0   1.41
                                  
RA   2012   18  34  .507   11.4   4.5   1.2   1.0   1.0   .1    .5    .43
PP   2012   20  39  .506   20.7   6.0   3.3   1.4   2.6   .8   2.3   1.39

Last year, Ray shot very well, but not frequently: just 11 shots per 36 minutes. And he didn't do much else.

[huevonkiller]

How did Pierce outplay Allen in 2011? That seems egregious.


However these are the figures for Ray from basketball-reference:

RA 2008-2012 playoffs: 3454 minutes, 13.9 PER, .574 TS%, 18.7% USG, 113 O-rating, 106 D-rating, 9.4 win shares, .131 WS/48.

PP 2008-2012 playoffs: 3597 minutes, 16.5 PER, .555 TS%, , 25.3% USG, 106 O-rating, 103 d-rating, 9.4 win shares, .125 WS/48.

They're nearly identical players in the post-season. Paul is clearly the better defender, but Allen has offensive peaks were he surpasses Dirk and Shaq in Win Shares. His playing style allows him to play at a comparable level but without the prestige.

[huevonkiller]

Now for the 2011 comparison:

RA: 361 minutes, 19.6 PER, .708 TS%, 17.2 USG%, 136 o-rating, 106 d-rating, 1.7 WS, .225 WS/48

PP: 343 minutes, 17.6 PER, .574 TS%, 26.1 USG%, 104 o-rating, 104 d-rating, 0.9 WS, .128 WS/48.

Ray is killing Paul in this post-season, and lead the league in TS%, EFG%. It shouldn't even be close.

[Mike G]

Of course you may compare one player's peaks to another player's averages, but that doesn't tell you anything.
You may also recall that Ray Allen could not hit the broad side of the barn in game 7 of the 2010 Finals.
If he could have made just 4 of 14, the Celts would have another title.
http://www.basketball-reference.com/box ... 70LAL.html

[huevonkiller]

Of course you may compare one player's peaks to another player's averages, but that doesn't tell you anything.
You may also recall that Ray Allen could not hit the broad side of the barn in game 7 of the 2010 Finals.
If he could have made just 4 of 14, the Celts would have another title.
http://www.basketball-reference.com/box ... 70LAL.html

No one is comparing peaks, I'm comparing their overall playoff careers in Boston. And their overall post-seasons in 2011.

In no way does Pierce stack up to Ray that year. It isn't even close, although other seasons are a different matter.

[Mike G]

...Allen has offensive peaks were he surpasses Dirk and Shaq in Win Shares...

No one is comparing peaks...

In no way does Pierce stack up to Ray that year. It isn't even close, although other seasons are a different matter

Here are some ways Pierce seems to have been better than Ray in the 2011 playoffs:

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2011 PO   mpg    PPG   RPG   APG    Reb%  Ast%  Stl%   Blk%
Pierce   38.1   20.8   5.0   2.8    8.0   13.5   1.9   1.0
Allen    40.1   18.9   3.8   2.4    5.8   10.5   1.6   0.2

In the first round sweep of the Knicks, Ray shot 75% and Pierce shot 57%. Both averaged 22 pts/G
Losing 4-1 to the Heat, Ray shot 65% and Pierce 56%. Pierce averaged 20-6-3 and Ray 16-3-3.

[huevonkiller]

...Allen has offensive peaks were he surpasses Dirk and Shaq in Win Shares...

No one is comparing peaks...

And like I said, you are still wrong. Shaq and Dirk's peaks are superior to Allen's peaks, but in 2001 Allen defeats a not-quite-peak Shaq/Dirk in offensive win shares. You were a little careless with your prose, so I had to correct you there.




This is what you said earlier: "Of course you may compare one player's peaks to another player's averages, but that doesn't tell you anything. "

Technically I am not comparing true peak seasons. Nor am I comparing Allen's peak to any player's averages either. Allen flat out led the league in offensive ws one year, never did I make a mention of any averages.

Here are some ways Pierce seems to have been better than Ray in the 2011 playoffs:

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2011 PO   mpg    PPG   RPG   APG    Reb%  Ast%  Stl%   Blk%
Pierce   38.1   20.8   5.0   2.8    8.0   13.5   1.9   1.0
Allen    40.1   18.9   3.8   2.4    5.8   10.5   1.6   0.2

In the first round sweep of the Knicks, Ray shot 75% and Pierce shot 57%. Both averaged 22 pts/G
Losing 4-1 to the Heat, Ray shot 65% and Pierce 56%. Pierce averaged 20-6-3 and Ray 16-3-3.

Allen actually usurps Pierce in ball handling, since his turnover rate is 5 points lower than Pierce's. Your assist rate is therefore invalid. Paul is definitely the better defender, but Allen crushes him in all rate stats, even PER. Having a higher PER with far less usage is very telling. Your ewins stat looks egregiously wrong for the 2011 season, and citing points per game is pretty useless I think. There's no point in pumping up high usage, low efficiency basketball players when there's such a gap in quality. Allen has a higher PER by 2 points, a 13.4% higher TS%, a 14.0% higher EFG%, a 19 point higher O-rating, a Turnover rate that is 5.1% better, a WS/48 97 points higher, and has more total win shares by 0.6.

Pierce wins by 0.1% in offensive rebounding which is almost nothing, wins in steal rate by 0.3%, wins in block rate by 0.8%, wins in defensive rebounding by 4.3%. Because of this small magnitude in difference, Pierce is only two defensive points better. He also doesn't handle the ball nearly as careful as ray did in 2011

Just to summarize it all for you:

RA: +2.0 PER with 8.9% less USG, +13.4 TS%, +14.0 EFG%, +5.1 Tov%, +19 points O-rating, +97 points WS48, +.6 WS.
PP: +0.1 Oreb%, + 4.3 Dreb%, +3.0 AST%,+2 points D-rating.

And turnover rate is far more important than assist rate. Like I said Pierce is outclassed this post-season, your metric didn't adjust for opponent so it doesn't have that problem either. No one cares about points per game and rebounds per game.