If you look at his month to month stats for his first season, he got steadily lots worse as a shooter /scorer and in overall boxscore efficiency ratings. The team offense got better and better, but his offensive RAPM estimate for the season was near a -1 (not sure if it was getting better month to month or not). This was more than offset by a strong almost +2 estimate on defense though.
What do you expect from Rubio next season and long-term? He will probably get better but the dude is currently a horrendous shooter / scorer. Of the 195 players who played 1200+ minutes season, he was the very worst on eFG% at .398, about 13th worst on TS% and 25th worst on offensive rating.
Expectations for Rubio
Re: Expectations for Rubio
Oh gosh, I used 600 characters (with spaces). That would be 5 tweets to say this much. Either I am too verbose and over analyzing the issue or a 140 character limit per tweet limit is ridiculously constraining and disruptive.
Re: Expectations for Rubio
Crow, I love Twitter. I view it like writing Haiku or iambic pentameter. It is most definitely a challenge to make 140 characters meaningful, but that's probably why I like it so much. Shakespeare would have been followed by millions on Twitter. 
Re: Expectations for Rubio
Ok, different strokes.
But you'd need two tweets for your comment.
I now see that that there are some twitter extension options. But if you'd need to use them often (and I would and would want to) then I do not the think the hassle of using two platforms / apps and needing your readers to click thru to see the full content or view it chopped up is worth whatever other advantage twitter might have in some eyes. I'd rather go to one place and get all the content in the same place all at once. But I've said my piece. In one post instead something more complicated.
But you'd need two tweets for your comment.
I now see that that there are some twitter extension options. But if you'd need to use them often (and I would and would want to) then I do not the think the hassle of using two platforms / apps and needing your readers to click thru to see the full content or view it chopped up is worth whatever other advantage twitter might have in some eyes. I'd rather go to one place and get all the content in the same place all at once. But I've said my piece. In one post instead something more complicated.
Re: Expectations for Rubio
I wouldn't have been as verbose on twitter, but my comment would've been cleverer.Crow wrote:Ok, different strokes.
But you'd need two tweets for your comment.
Re: Expectations for Rubio
I am sure you would be more succinct and clever on twitter. You have those skills and you indicate they are brought out in that challenging, exciting environment.
Maybe I will try it someday. Maybe. But so far even the temptation to respond to folks active on twitter has not been strong enough.
Maybe I will try it someday. Maybe. But so far even the temptation to respond to folks active on twitter has not been strong enough.
Re: Expectations for Rubio
I expect Rubio to perhaps move into the Lowry/Lawson/Conley/Irving tier in terms of overall production. A +2.0/100poss player. Similar to Rondo.
Re: Expectations for Rubio
+2 overall impact seems like a reasonable projection for Rubio with some experience, if he fully recovers.
I assume you were using your ASPM for his peer group.
On last season's prior-informed RAPM Lowry led the peer group at +2.7.
Irving trailed it at -0.9. His non-prior informed estimate was +0.2. About -2 on estimated defensive impact on both. Much of the defense impact would not get picked up by most other metrics. (D4PM has him at -1.40 but I am having trouble reconciling that with the 4 separate defensive factor estimates. Evan can you clarify this for me? Which of his marks are good & bad on the 4 defensive factors and how it adds to -1.4?)
Conley led the peer group on non-prior informed estimate at +2.7. Rondo was at or near +1 on both.
I assume you were using your ASPM for his peer group.
On last season's prior-informed RAPM Lowry led the peer group at +2.7.
Irving trailed it at -0.9. His non-prior informed estimate was +0.2. About -2 on estimated defensive impact on both. Much of the defense impact would not get picked up by most other metrics. (D4PM has him at -1.40 but I am having trouble reconciling that with the 4 separate defensive factor estimates. Evan can you clarify this for me? Which of his marks are good & bad on the 4 defensive factors and how it adds to -1.4?)
Conley led the peer group on non-prior informed estimate at +2.7. Rondo was at or near +1 on both.