2012-13 eWins

[Mike G]

Season at 5/8

Code: Select all

eW82   per36 rates     tm   Min   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e484
17.5  James,Lebron    Mia   39   .621   29.0   8.5   7.2   1.5   2.8   .8   2.68
16.3  Durant,Kevin    Okl   39   .638   30.7   7.4   4.7   1.5   3.0  1.0   2.48
13.3 Westbrook,Russel Okl   36   .510   24.7   5.6  10.0   2.0   3.5   .2   2.20
11.8  Bryant,Kobe     LAL   39   .558   26.8   5.2   5.2   1.3   3.2   .2   1.81
11.4  Harden,James    Hou   38   .586   25.7   4.7   5.5   1.8   3.6   .4   1.80

11.3  Parker,Tony     SAS   33   .586   25.9   3.4   9.5   1.0   2.7   .1   2.14
11.2  Griffin,Blake   LAC   32   .558   23.1  10.5   4.4   1.6   2.7   .6   2.11
11.0  Anthony,Carmelo NYK   38   .562   30.1   6.5   2.8    .8   2.6   .6   1.98
10.1  Lee,David       GSW   37   .551   19.4  10.7   3.8    .8   2.6   .2   1.64
10.1  Wade,Dwyane     Mia   34   .559   24.7   5.6   5.5   1.7   2.8   .8   1.90

e82    per36 rates     tm   Min   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e484
10.0 Aldridge,Lamarcu Por   38   .518   20.6   9.2   2.6    .8   1.8  1.2   1.61
9.9   Paul,Chris      LAC   33   .585   21.2   4.2  10.9   2.9   2.4   .0   2.30
9.8   West,David      Ind   34   .518   21.4   8.6   3.4   1.0   2.2  1.2   1.72
9.8   Jefferson,Al    Uta   33   .515   19.7  11.3   2.5   1.0   1.3  1.2   1.79
9.6   Randolph,Zach   Mem   35   .506   18.3  13.5   1.6    .9   2.1   .5   1.68

9.5   Duncan,Tim      SAS   30   .548   23.0  12.3   3.8   1.0   2.4  3.1   2.32
9.4   George,Paul     Ind   38   .526   19.5   7.8   3.9   1.7   2.7   .6   1.50
9.4   Gasol,Marc      Mem   35   .539   16.6   9.2   3.9   1.1   2.0  1.7   1.60
9.3   Pierce,Paul     Bos   34   .530   22.0   7.2   4.4   1.4   2.8   .3   1.62
9.2   Chandler,Tyson  NYK   33   .671   14.1  13.2   1.2    .7   1.4  1.4   1.65

e82    per36 rates     tm   Min   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e484
9.0   Horford,Al      Atl   37   .543   16.9  10.1   3.2    .9   1.8  1.1   1.53
8.9   Monroe,Greg     Det   33   .521   18.9  11.0   3.4   1.4   3.4   .7   1.59
8.8   Smith,Josh      Atl   36   .484   18.3   9.2   4.1   1.3   3.2  2.4   1.54
8.6   Curry,Stephen   GSW   38   .559   21.1   4.0   6.1   1.5   2.8   .2   1.45
8.5   Garnett,Kevin   Bos   30   .537   19.9   9.6   2.7   1.3   2.0  1.1   1.66

8.5   Howard,Dwight   LAL   35   .553   17.3  12.6   1.7   1.1   3.1  2.3   1.63
8.4   Lopez,Brook     Brk   30   .553   25.0   9.9   1.2    .6   2.3  2.6   1.90
8.4   Noah,Joakim     Chi   38   .505   12.6  11.5   4.0   1.2   2.7  1.4   1.41
8.4   Millsap,Paul    Uta   30   .538   18.6   9.4   3.0   1.6   2.0  1.2   1.63
8.2   Williams,Deron  Brk   36   .532   18.6   3.6   7.8    .9   2.8   .4   1.37

e82    per36 rates     tm   Min   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e484
8.2   Vucevic,Nikola  Orl   33   .533   14.3  13.6   1.7    .7   1.7  1.3   1.47
8.1   Boozer,Carlos   Chi   31   .499   20.5  11.7   2.4    .8   2.4   .4   1.65
8.1   Bosh,Chris      Mia   34   .590   20.4   8.5   1.8    .9   2.0  1.3   1.51
7.9   Holiday,Jrue    Phl   38   .509   19.7   4.1   7.3   1.4   3.8   .4   1.33
7.9  Cousins,Demarcus Sac   31   .500   19.5  12.0   3.1   1.8   3.5   .8   1.64

7.9   Hickson,J.J.    Por   30   .582   16.7  13.8   1.3    .7   2.2   .9   1.60
7.7   Irving,Kyrie    Cle   35   .566   25.5   4.0   5.2   1.7   3.4   .3   1.63
7.7   Faried,Kenneth  Den   29   .568   15.8  12.6   1.3   1.4   1.8  1.0   1.55
7.5  Jennings,Brandon Mil   37   .494   18.7   3.2   5.6   1.9   2.6   .2   1.19
7.4   Vasquez,Greivis NOH   34   .502   15.6   5.3   9.2    .8   3.6   .1   1.28

#41-50 : Rondo, Batum, George Hill, Lillard, Walker, Gallinari, T Young, R Anderson ,Ellis, Ibaka
51-60 : Conley, Deng, Lawson, Pekovic, Asik, Mayo, JR Smith, Teague, Splitter, Iguodala
Rudy Gay fits in there somewhere, as he's at #61 just based on his Memphis time.

[Crow]

Who is the lowest ranked All-Star on this measure? Don't have time at the moment to sort it out. Appreciate it if someone does.

[Mike G]

I find these 9 AllStar selections with eWins projection lower than 9 other 'snubs'.
Of course there are position shortages and conference inequality -- but have at it.

Code: Select all

e82    per36 rates  tm   Min   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO    Blk   e484
6.7   Deng,Luol    Chi   40   .500   17.1   6.7   2.8   1.0   2.0    .3   1.11
7.3   Rondo,Rajon  Bos   37   .510   14.7   5.7  10.9   1.8   3.8    .2   1.55
7.7   Irving,Kyrie Cle   35   .566   25.5   4.0   5.2   1.7   3.4    .3   1.63
7.9   Holiday,Jrue Phl   38   .509   19.7   4.1   7.3   1.4   3.8    .4   1.33
8.1   Bosh,Chris   Mia   34   .590   20.4   8.5   1.8    .9   2.0   1.3   1.51

8.4   Noah,Joakim  Chi   38   .505   12.6  11.5   4.0   1.2   2.7   1.4   1.41
8.4   Lopez,Brook  Brk   30   .553   25.0   9.9   1.2    .6   2.3   2.6   1.90
8.5  Howard,Dwight LAL   35   .553   17.3  12.6   1.7   1.1   3.1   2.3   1.63
8.5  Garnett,Kevin Bos   30   .537   19.9   9.6   2.7   1.3   2.0   1.1   1.66

Some are all-star quality in their minutes or games, but have missed a lot of time.

Some of the 'snubs' are very close to selections at the same position:

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e82    per36 rates  tm   Min   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO    Blk   e484
9.8   West,David   Ind   34   .518   21.4   8.6   3.4   1.0   2.2   1.2   1.72
9.8   Jefferson,Al Uta   33   .515   19.7  11.3   2.5   1.0   1.3   1.2   1.79
9.4   Gasol,Marc   Mem   35   .539   16.6   9.2   3.9   1.1   2.0   1.7   1.60
9.3   Pierce,Paul  Bos   34   .530   22.0   7.2   4.4   1.4   2.8    .3   1.62
9.0   Horford,Al   Atl   37   .543   16.9  10.1   3.2    .9   1.8   1.1   1.53

8.9   Monroe,Greg  Det   33   .521   18.9  11.0   3.4   1.4   3.4    .7   1.59
8.8   Smith,Josh   Atl   36   .484   18.3   9.2   4.1   1.3   3.2   2.4   1.54
8.6  Curry,Stephen GSW   38   .559   21.1   4.0   6.1   1.5   2.8    .2   1.45
8.4   Millsap,Paul Uta   30   .538   18.6   9.4   3.0   1.6   2.0   1.2   1.63

This group features just one guard, 1 or 2 SF, and the rest are bigs.
Pierce not an all-star? I might take him over George or Deng still.
Aren't injured players normally replaced by a teammate? Who got Rondo's spot?

[Crow]

Thanks Mike.

[Bobbofitos]

Who got Rondo's spot?

Brook Lopez got it.

[Mike G]

So one of their 3 PG's goes down, and they pick up a 5th C. A couple of those have played some F.
Deron Williams is having a pretty good year, but Lopez is having a better year.

[Mike G]

season at 68%

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e82     per36 rates   tm   Min   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e484
18.9   James,Lebron   Mia   38  .627   29.1   8.6   7.5   1.6   2.8   .7   2.90
16.9   Durant,Kevin   Okl   39  .635   30.0   7.6   4.9   1.4   3.1  1.0   2.57
13.9 Westbrook,Russel Okl   36  .519   25.0   5.6   9.7   1.9   3.7   .2   2.29
12.5   Bryant,Kobe    LAL   38  .561   26.6   5.3   5.4   1.3   3.4   .2   1.93
11.8   Parker,Tony    SAS   33  .588   26.3   3.5   9.5   1.0   2.7   .1   2.28

11.8   Harden,James   Hou   38  .590   25.7   4.8   5.4   1.8   3.5   .4   1.88
11.6   Griffin,Blake  LAC   32  .561   23.1  10.6   4.4   1.6   2.6   .6   2.20
11.5  Anthony,Carmelo NYK   38  .550   29.0   6.6   2.8    .7   2.6   .6   2.06
10.9   Wade,Dwyane    Mia   34  .557   24.8   5.8   5.6   1.7   2.8   .8   2.03
10.6   Lee,David      GSW   37  .553   19.3  10.9   3.7    .8   2.6   .2   1.71

e82     per36 rates   tm   Min   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e484
10.3   West,David     Ind   33  .522   21.8   8.6   3.6   1.0   2.2  1.2   1.86
10.3   Jefferson,Al   Uta   33  .515   19.9  11.0   2.5   1.1   1.4  1.2   1.89
10.1   George,Paul    Ind   38  .530   19.9   7.9   4.2   1.7   2.8   .6   1.62
10.1 Aldridge,Lamarcu Por   38  .516   20.3   8.8   2.4    .8   1.8  1.2   1.63
9.9    Randolph,Zach  Mem   35  .502   18.2  13.5   1.6    .8   2.1   .5   1.73

9.8   Duncan,Tim      SAS   30  .538   22.2  12.2   3.7   1.0   2.4  3.2   2.36
9.8   Horford,Al      Atl   37  .555   17.7  10.0   3.3    .9   1.8  1.2   1.65
9.8   Paul,Chris      LAC   33  .581   20.6   4.2  10.9   2.8   2.4   .0   2.23
9.6   Pierce,Paul     Bos   34  .528   21.7   7.1   4.4   1.3   2.7   .3   1.67
9.4   Smith,Josh      Atl   36  .487   18.4   9.2   4.3   1.3   3.1  2.3   1.64

e82     per36 rates   tm   Min   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e484
9.4   Gasol,Marc      Mem   35  .540   16.7   9.1   4.0   1.0   2.0  1.8   1.60
9.0   Curry,Stephen   GSW   38  .561   21.1   4.0   6.1   1.6   2.8   .2   1.51
9.0   Monroe,Greg     Det   33  .514   18.5  11.0   3.4   1.4   3.3   .7   1.62
8.7   Garnett,Kevin   Bos   30  .530   19.7   9.6   2.8   1.4   1.9  1.0   1.73
8.7   Lopez,Brook     Brk   30  .547   24.3   9.6   1.2    .5   2.2  2.5   1.93

8.7   Millsap,Paul    Uta   30  .542   18.8   9.4   3.1   1.5   2.0  1.2   1.68
8.5   Howard,Dwight   LAL   35  .552   17.3  12.7   1.6   1.1   3.1  2.2   1.60
8.4   Boozer,Carlos   Chi   31  .496   20.0  11.7   2.4    .9   2.4   .3   1.72
8.3   Bosh,Chris      Mia   34  .592   20.1   8.5   1.8    .9   1.9  1.2   1.55
8.3  Cousins,Demarcus Sac   32  .504   19.4  11.8   3.0   1.8   3.5   .7   1.70

e82     per36 rates   tm   Min   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e484
8.3   Chandler,Tyson  NYK   33  .667   13.6  12.9   1.2    .7   1.5  1.7   1.47
8.3   Irving,Kyrie    Cle   35  .561   24.9   4.0   5.4   1.7   3.3   .3   1.72
8.2   Holiday,Jrue    Phl   38  .511   19.8   4.1   7.1   1.4   3.8   .4   1.36
8.1   Williams,Deron  Brk   37  .537   18.7   3.5   7.7    .9   2.9   .4   1.38
8.1   Noah,Joakim     Chi   38  .503   12.6  11.4   4.0   1.2   2.6  1.3   1.34

7.9  Jennings,Brandon Mil   37  .501   19.1   3.2   5.6   1.8   2.6   .1   1.25
7.8   Hickson,J.J.    Por   29  .593   16.7  13.6   1.3    .7   2.2   .9   1.59
7.8   Vucevic,Nikola  Orl   33  .533   13.8  13.2   1.7    .7   1.8  1.2   1.40
7.4   Hill,George     Ind   35  .552   17.9   4.3   5.4   1.0   1.8   .4   1.32
7.4   Anderson,Ryan   NOH   31  .567   20.1   8.1   1.3    .6   1.3   .4   1.41

41-50: Vasquez, Walker, Faried, Lawson, Ellis, Lillard, Pekovic, JR Smith, Gallinari, Batum
51-60: Conley, Deng, T Young, Teague, Ibaka, Rondo, Mayo, Asik, Parsons, Splitter

[Mike G]

Leaders in production categories, minimum of 700 minutes played.

Code: Select all

Sco     per36 rates   tm        Reb    per36 rates   tm       Ast    per36 rates   tm
30.0   Durant,Kevin   Okl      15.9   Evans,Reggie   Brk     10.9   Paul,Chris     LAC
29.1   James,Lebron   Mia      15.5 Varejao,Anderson Cle     10.7   Rondo,Rajon    Bos
29.0  Anthony,Carmelo NYK      14.5   Asik,Omer      Hou      9.7 Westbrook,Russel Okl
26.6   Bryant,Kobe    LAL      13.6   Drummond,Andre Det      9.5   Parker,Tony    SAS
26.3   Parker,Tony    SAS      13.6   Hickson,J.J.   Por      9.4   Calderon,Jose  Tor
25.7   Harden,James   Hou      13.5   Randolph,Zach  Mem      9.3  Vasquez,Greivis NOH
25.0 Westbrook,Russel Okl      13.2   Vucevic,Nikola Orl      8.5   Rubio,Ricky    Min
24.9   Irving,Kyrie   Cle      12.9   Chandler,Tyson NYK      8.5   Tinsley,Jamaal Uta
24.8   Wade,Dwyane    Mia      12.7   Howard,Dwight  LAL      8.3   Nash,Steve     LAL
24.3   Lopez,Brook    Brk      12.5   Okafor,Emeka   Was      8.0   Miller,Andre   Den
23.1   Griffin,Blake  LAC      12.4   Humphries,Kris Brk      7.8   Williams,Mo    Uta
22.2   Duncan,Tim     SAS      12.4   Faried,Kenneth Den      7.7   Williams,Deron Brk
21.8   Crawford,Jamal LAC      12.2   Duncan,Tim     SAS      7.6   Prigioni,Pablo NYK
21.8   West,David     Ind      12.0   Sanders,Larry  Mil      7.5   Lin,Jeremy     Hou
21.7   Pierce,Paul    Bos      11.8 Cousins,Demarcus Sac      7.5   James,Lebron   Mia
21.1   Curry,Stephen  GSW      11.7   Boozer,Carlos  Chi      7.5   Teague,Jeff    Atl
20.9   Ginobili,Manu  SAS      11.6   Jordan,Deandre LAC      7.4   Lawson,Ty      Den
20.6   Paul,Chris     LAC      11.4   Noah,Joakim    Chi      7.3   Felton,Raymond NYK
20.3   Robinson,Nate  Chi      11.4   Haslem,Udonis  Mia      7.1   Lowry,Kyle     Tor
20.3 Aldridge,Lamarcu Por      11.4 Thompson,Tristan Cle      7.1   Holiday,Jrue   Phl
  
                            
Eff%  Pts/(FGA*2+FTA)   tm     Stl    per36 rates   tm       Blk    per36 rates   tm
.667   Chandler,Tyson NYK      2.8   Paul,Chris     LAC      4.4   Sanders,Larry  Mil
.635   Durant,Kevin   Okl      2.8   Rubio,Ricky    Min      3.2   Duncan,Tim     SAS
.635   Collison,Nick  Okl      2.5   Bledsoe,Eric   LAC      3.2   Hibbert,Roy    Ind
.634   Korver,Kyle    Atl      2.4   Conley,Mike    Mem      3.0   Mcgee,Javale   Den
.630   Diaw,Boris     SAS      2.2   Kidd,Jason     NYK      3.0   Ibaka,Serge    Okl
.627   James,Lebron   Mia      2.2   Chalmers,Mario Mia      2.6   Drummond,Andre Det
.627   Splitter,Tiago SAS      2.2   Leonard,Kawhi  SAS      2.5   Lopez,Brook    Brk
.619   Novak,Steve    NYK      2.1   Allen,Tony     Mem      2.3   Smith,Josh     Atl
.613  Sefolosha,Thabo Okl      2.1   Prigioni,Pablo NYK      2.3   Udoh,Ekpe      Mil
.612  Webster,Martell Was      2.1   Ginobili,Manu  SAS      2.2   Brand,Elton    Dal
.609   Nash,Steve     LAL      2.1   Lin,Jeremy     Hou      2.2   Howard,Dwight  LAL
.606   Martin,Kevin   Okl      2.1   Ariza,Trevor   Was      2.2   Ezeli,Festus   GSW

Sco = Pts/36min * 100/OppPPG * (Eff%/.520)^(.25)
Reb = Reb/36min * 88/(Tm+OppRPG) * (TmRPG/OppRPG)^(.50)
Ast = Ast/36min * 200/(Tm+OppPPG) * ((TmPts/FGA)/(LgPts/FGA))

Assists are also adjusted to the team's Away/Home Ast/FG ratios.
Blocks are adjusted to the team's Away/Home Blk/OppFGA ratios.
All categories (and TO) are adjusted for MPG and start/sub fraction

[v-zero]

What was the logic involved in creating those equations?

[Mike G]

Per 36 minutes is used because that's about average for a starter in playoffs. It's about 32 mpg in seasons, but good players should be able to average 36 as needed.

"Per 100 points scored by the league against your team" is the standard for scoring, and that's just about the league avg these days.
Effective shooting% of .52 is about avg.
Avg rebounds per team per game was about 44 when I started doing this; it's been about 42 in recent years (per team); much higher in olden times.

These are arbitrary averages that 'standardize' per36 rates for players from any team in any era.
Exponents and other parameters are adjusted to create the smallest difference between team eWins and pythagorean expected wins.

[Mike G]

Home and away, assists and blocks rates for teams:

Code: Select all

tm     hBk%    aBk%   A/HBk       hAs%  aAs%  A/HAst
Atl    .056    .065   1.16        .67    .63    .95
Bos    .057    .047    .82        .63    .62    .98
Cha    .088    .068    .77        .60    .50    .84
Chi    .081    .051    .63        .65    .64    .99
Cle    .052    .038    .74        .61    .51    .84

Dal    .061    .068   1.12        .60    .60   1.00
Den    .086    .070    .82        .62    .58    .94
Det    .072    .064    .89        .58    .56    .96
GSW    .050    .047    .95        .64    .56    .88
Hou    .056    .043    .77        .62    .59    .96

Ind    .086    .081    .94        .60    .57    .95
LAC    .082    .063    .77        .64    .58    .89
LAL    .068    .062    .91        .64    .54    .84
Mem    .065    .064    .99        .56    .60   1.08
Mia    .067    .060    .90        .57    .58   1.02

tm     hBk%    aBk%   A/HBk       hAs%  aAs%  A/HAst
Mil    .086    .087   1.01        .60    .58    .97
Min    .067    .054    .81        .61    .63   1.03
NJN    .061    .060    .98        .57    .58   1.01
NOH    .072    .066    .91        .63    .55    .87
NYK    .038    .055   1.45        .55    .52    .95

Orl    .051    .053   1.04        .60    .64   1.07
Phl    .059    .057    .96        .62    .57    .92
Phx    .068    .061    .90        .58    .61   1.05
Por    .056    .057   1.03        .58    .58   1.00
Sac    .050    .053   1.05        .54    .54   1.00

SAS    .065    .064   1.00        .65    .62    .96
Okl    .101    .088    .87        .58    .56    .96
Tor    .054    .058   1.08        .62    .59    .95
Uta    .083    .075    .90        .62    .62    .99
Was    .055    .060   1.08        .61    .63   1.03

NBA    .066    .061    .921       .607   .583   .961

[v-zero]

Exponents and other parameters are adjusted to create the smallest difference between team eWins and pythagorean expected wins.

That's the piece of information I was most looking for. So no 'team defensive adjustment' in eWins? Hadn't considered doing it that way, fascinating.

[Mike G]

Team defensive adjustment: Your points are scaled to opponent points, by the factor 100/OppPPG.
If you score 20 PPG, and your team allows 110 ppg, it's equivalent to 20 * 100/110 = 18.2
If you avg 20 in games that NBA teams average 90, it's equivalent to 22.2 pts/36
In other words, if you played until the opponent had scored 100, that's what you'd average.

Scoring is the biggest component in most players' stat line, so defense (*pace) does matter.
It also matters if your team out-rebounds the other team. Not all rebounds are equally available, as those taken by teammates are not. That's why the (TmReb/OppReb) factor is in there, along with (Tm+Opp Reb).

If a factor does not correlate to team point differential, then amplifying it does not improve the fit between eWins (adjusted) and Pyth wins. If it's a strong correlation, it has a greater magnitude.

The parameters vary widely in playoff series. There, you obviously aren't competing against the NBA at large; so an average blocked shot, for example, may have a considerably higher or lower value than it had during the season.

[v-zero]

In that case aren't strong offensive players being rewarded for the work of their teammates' defence, possibly making weak offensive players look rather good on strong defensive teams?

[Mike G]

Forgot to mention a "defensive adjustment" factor that gets a little weight.
((Min/FGA)*(TmFGA/240)) ^ .07

This has the effect of modestly punishing players who just shoot a lot, relative to their other production.
Mostly it's an attempt to boost the value of the opposite type of player: A guy who gets minutes for no apparent (statistical) reason. Most likely he's setting picks, playing D, etc.
Because of the current low exponent, the "shot frequency factor" doesn't change player rates much. Here's an example of a team with and without this adjustment, by minutes:

Code: Select all

.Miami Heat   eW/484   freq  adj484  e=.20  e=.40
James,Lebron   3.01     .68    2.90   2.70   2.40
Bosh,Chris     1.57     .87    1.55   1.50   1.42
Wade,Dwyane    2.12     .69    2.03   1.88   1.66
Chalmers,Mario  .70    1.25     .73    .79    .89
Allen,Ray       .84    1.01     .85    .85    .85
Battier,Shane   .12    1.56     .17    .26    .40
Haslem,Udonis   .53    1.88     .61    .77   1.05
Cole,Norris     .08    1.16     .09    .12    .16
Miller,Mike     .57    1.35     .61    .68    .80
Anthony,Joel   -.02    2.97     .08    .28    .66
Lewis,Rashard   .46    1.15     .48    .51    .56

Miami has 3 above-avg players (eW/484 > 1.00) who also are the guys who take the most shots (freq fac < 1.00). The Big 3 have had some of their credit stripped away and doled out to the supporting players.
The unadjusted eWins per 484 minutes is in the first column, and the 3rd column (adj484) is factored by the .07 exponent on the 2nd column.
I've thrown in larger exponents' (.20 and.40) hypothetical adjustments just to illustrate how they would redistribute the credit.
Joel Anthony is moved from sub-replacement level ( < 0 ) to barely-above, with e = .07.
Norris Cole is just an ineffective scorer, and no exponent makes him look good.