Advanced Statistical Plus/Minus for NCAA Men's Basketball

[DSMok1]

I have finally compiled ASPM for NCAA Men's Basketball, using data from http://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/ and kenpom.com

There was data available for the past 4 seasons (publicly) so that is what I have compiled ASPM for.

The best 10 players of the past 4 years:

• 2012 Anthony Davis (Fr) (+15 ASPM, +7 Offense, +8 Defense): Excellent on offense, spectacular on defense. 2nd best defensive rating among qualified players, and as a freshman, also!
  2013 Victor Oladipo (Jr) (+14.5/+8/+6.5): Easily the best season by a wing in the 4 seasons. Best wing defender in the past 4 years (well, tied with Aaron Craft in 2012).
  2011 Kyrie Irving (Fr) (+13/+9.5/+3.5): Low minutes because of the injury, but a tremendous offensive season. In 2011, only Jimmer was better on O.
  2013 Trey Burke (So) (+12.5/+10/+2.5): So far this season Trey Burke is having the best offensive season of the past 4 years.
  2012 Jae Crowder (Sr) (+12/+6.5/+5.5): In the same mold as Oladipo: lock-down wing defender, do the dirty work… amazingly well.
  2013 Cody Zeller (So) (+12/+8/+4): Tremendous offensive post presence, relatively weak post defender.
  2013 Kelly Olynyk (Jr) (+12/+9.5/+2.5): Even better than Zeller on offense, but even worse on defense.
  2011 Kemba Walker (Jr) (+11.5/+8/5/+3): Excellent offensive lead guard, and not bad on defense for a PG, either.
  2012 Cody Zeller (Fr) (+11.5/+7.5/+3.5): Cody was also really good as a freshman, and hasn’t changed much.
  2012 Jared Sullinger (So) (+11.5/+6/+5): A beast in the post, outstanding on both ends of the court.
  2010 Evan Turner (Jr) (+11/+7/+4): The best of 2010–a down season. A uniquely talented 3 on offense.

You will note quite a few 2013 names up at the top; this is likely due to the smaller sample size for this season (some regression to the mean will come into play).

To a large extent, it appears that if a player had a dominant season by ASPM as a sophomore or (particularly) a freshman, they are likely big-time NBA prospects.
The top 21 freshman seasons over 26 MPG:

• 1. Anthony Davis
  2. Kyrie Irving
  3. Cody Zeller
  4. Nerlens Noel
  5. Marcus Smart
  6. Jared Sullinger
  7. Ben McLemore
  8. Tristan Thompson
  9. Otto Porter
  10. Anthony Bennett
  11. Aaron Craft
  12. John Wall
  13. Terrence Jones
  14. Glenn Robinson
  15. Gary Harris
  16. Derrick Favors
  17. Xavier Henry
  18. T.J. McConnell
  19. Bradley Beal
  20. Jordan Adams
  21. Michael Kidd-Gilchrist

Still quite a few 2013 names on that list (possible regression to mean alert) but it looks pretty interesting to me.

[Neil Paine]

Awesome! Do you have a spreadsheet for on-demand updating?

[DSMok1]

Awesome! Do you have a spreadsheet for on-demand updating?

Yep, but it's rather massive. Over 20 megs. I'll post a link to it at the top of the NCAA ASPM page.

Here's the link: https://docs.google.com/file/d/0Bx1NfCU ... sp=sharing

[Neil Paine]

Cool, thanks much, Daniel.

[Statman]

I have finally compiled ASPM for NCAA Men's Basketball, using data from http://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/ and kenpom.com

There was data available for the past 4 seasons (publicly) so that is what I have compiled ASPM for.

The best 10 players of the past 4 years:

• 2012 Anthony Davis (Fr) (+15 ASPM, +7 Offense, +8 Defense): Excellent on offense, spectacular on defense. 2nd best defensive rating among qualified players, and as a freshman, also!
  2013 Victor Oladipo (Jr) (+14.5/+8/+6.5): Easily the best season by a wing in the 4 seasons. Best wing defender in the past 4 years (well, tied with Aaron Craft in 2012).
  2011 Kyrie Irving (Fr) (+13/+9.5/+3.5): Low minutes because of the injury, but a tremendous offensive season. In 2011, only Jimmer was better on O.
  2013 Trey Burke (So) (+12.5/+10/+2.5): So far this season Trey Burke is having the best offensive season of the past 4 years.
  2012 Jae Crowder (Sr) (+12/+6.5/+5.5): In the same mold as Oladipo: lock-down wing defender, do the dirty work… amazingly well.
  2013 Cody Zeller (So) (+12/+8/+4): Tremendous offensive post presence, relatively weak post defender.
  2013 Kelly Olynyk (Jr) (+12/+9.5/+2.5): Even better than Zeller on offense, but even worse on defense.
  2011 Kemba Walker (Jr) (+11.5/+8/5/+3): Excellent offensive lead guard, and not bad on defense for a PG, either.
  2012 Cody Zeller (Fr) (+11.5/+7.5/+3.5): Cody was also really good as a freshman, and hasn’t changed much.
  2012 Jared Sullinger (So) (+11.5/+6/+5): A beast in the post, outstanding on both ends of the court.
  2010 Evan Turner (Jr) (+11/+7/+4): The best of 2010–a down season. A uniquely talented 3 on offense.

You will note quite a few 2013 names up at the top; this is likely due to the smaller sample size for this season (some regression to the mean will come into play).

To a large extent, it appears that if a player had a dominant season by ASPM as a sophomore or (particularly) a freshman, they are likely big-time NBA prospects.
The top 21 freshman seasons over 26 MPG:

• 1. Anthony Davis
  2. Kyrie Irving
  3. Cody Zeller
  4. Nerlens Noel
  5. Marcus Smart
  6. Jared Sullinger
  7. Ben McLemore
  8. Tristan Thompson
  9. Otto Porter
  10. Anthony Bennett
  11. Aaron Craft
  12. John Wall
  13. Terrence Jones
  14. Glenn Robinson
  15. Gary Harris
  16. Derrick Favors
  17. Xavier Henry
  18. T.J. McConnell
  19. Bradley Beal
  20. Jordan Adams
  21. Michael Kidd-Gilchrist

Still quite a few 2013 names on that list (possible regression to mean alert) but it looks pretty interesting to me.

Extremely strong list - are those literally the Top 10 from EVERY school - or just the major conferences? It's hard to imagine not a single smallish school guy (say, a Muscala or a McDermott) sneaking in. TJ McConnell is the only one from a "mid" major - and he was at Duquesne, which is traditionally still a top 7/8 or so conference (Atlantic 10).

BTW - TJ McConnell is now at my Alma Mater (Arizona Wildcats), sitting out his transfer redshirt year. I've been telling people on forums all year that he could be an elitish college "true" PG his final two years at Arizona - the likes of which Coach Miller has never had (at either Arizona or his Sweet 16 Xavier teams).

I'm actually amazed how well your ASPM correlates to my Hoops Nerd Ratings - outside of no small school guys sneaking in. Maybe the mediocre SoS represses the final results too much for those guys?

[Statman]

I'm actually amazed how well your ASPM correlates to my Hoops Nerd Ratings - outside of no small school guys sneaking in. Maybe the mediocre SoS represses the final results too much for those guys?

I spoke too soon - no smallish school guys snuck in the Top 10 for the last FOUR years combined - BUT they are there, just a tiny bit lower.

Man - I love your stuff, how you present it, etc. Maybe when I get all 15 past college (and ALL NBA seasons) done - you can teach me how to embed a sort database thingy like you have? The fact I don't even know what to correctly name it tells you how much I need to learn there.

Our elite mid/small schools guys are almost a complete match also, just a slight order difference at times (Muscala, McDermott, & Taylor Smith from this season, Cole was my #1 small from 2011 also, etc).

Once again - great work - great presentation. I've been to your site before, and was a fool for not favoriting it before to remember to check back often. Mistake rectified.

[Statman]

Awesome! Do you have a spreadsheet for on-demand updating?

Yep, but it's rather massive. Over 20 megs. I'll post a link to it at the top of the NCAA ASPM page.

Here's the link: https://docs.google.com/file/d/0Bx1NfCU ... sp=sharing

Couldn't open or save - got one of those:

The file name or path doesn't exist
or the file is being used by another program
or the workbook you are trying to save has the same name as a currently open workbook

messages. Not sure what's up, if it's a prob on my end or not. Anyone else having this problem?

[PD123]

Couldn't open or save - got one of those:

The file name or path doesn't exist
or the file is being used by another program
or the workbook you are trying to save has the same name as a currently open workbook

messages. Not sure what's up, if it's a prob on my end or not. Anyone else having this problem?

I couldn't either.

DSMok1- I am curious as to whether or not zone defenses complicate the ASPM approach for calculating/interpreting individual defensive numbers.

[Statman]

I couldn't either.

DSMok1- I am curious as to whether or not zone defenses complicate the ASPM approach for calculating/interpreting individual defensive numbers.

That's probably the only real variance from his results than mine - his are weighted a little more toward the defensive stat guys. Not a huge variance mind you, fairly slight.

Hey DSMok1 - are the offensive ratings just all the combined O stats including O rebounds, and defensive all the D stats including D rebounds (with obvious pace, SoS, etc adjustments obviously)? I could easily split mine - I bet the O and D results rankings would compare very well - with yours just having a little more defensive weight than mine.

[DSMok1]

Extremely strong list - are those literally the Top 10 from EVERY school - or just the major conferences? It's hard to imagine not a single smallish school guy (say, a Muscala or a McDermott) sneaking in. TJ McConnell is the only one from a "mid" major - and he was at Duquesne, which is traditionally still a top 7/8 or so conference (Atlantic 10).

BTW - TJ McConnell is now at my Alma Mater (Arizona Wildcats), sitting out his transfer redshirt year. I've been telling people on forums all year that he could be an elitish college "true" PG his final two years at Arizona - the likes of which Coach Miller has never had (at either Arizona or his Sweet 16 Xavier teams).

I'm actually amazed how well your ASPM correlates to my Hoops Nerd Ratings - outside of no small school guys sneaking in. Maybe the mediocre SoS represses the final results too much for those guys?

Those lists were for the entire NCAA.

The ASPM was calculated exactly the same as for the NBA--calculate individual ratings and then adjust so team total equals adjusted ratings. Works very well in the NBA; I think it works well for the NCAA as well.

I spoke too soon - no smallish school guys snuck in the Top 10 for the last FOUR years combined - BUT they are there, just a tiny bit lower.

Man - I love your stuff, how you present it, etc. Maybe when I get all 15 past college (and ALL NBA seasons) done - you can teach me how to embed a sort database thingy like you have? The fact I don't even know what to correctly name it tells you how much I need to learn there.

Our elite mid/small schools guys are almost a complete match also, just a slight order difference at times (Muscala, McDermott, & Taylor Smith from this season, Cole was my #1 small from 2011 also, etc).

Once again - great work - great presentation. I've been to your site before, and was a fool for not favoriting it before to remember to check back often. Mistake rectified.

Thanks for the kind words!

Tableau Public is a great tool, free, and connects quite easily to Excel or any other basic data source.

Couldn't open or save - got one of those:

The file name or path doesn't exist
or the file is being used by another program
or the workbook you are trying to save has the same name as a currently open workbook

messages. Not sure what's up, if it's a prob on my end or not. Anyone else having this problem?

Not sure of the issue; I tried it from home and it worked OK, other than warning me that it was too big for Google to scan for viruses. Let me know if the issue persists.

[DSMok1]

DSMok1- I am curious as to whether or not zone defenses complicate the ASPM approach for calculating/interpreting individual defensive numbers.

The ASPM approach to defense is quite rudimentary--a set value for blocks, steals, and rebounds, and then a team adjustment on top so that the players sum to the team's actual efficiency. Not great, but in the NBA that gets an R^2 of 50% onto long-term defensive RAPM, which is the best stat for truly quantifying defense.

So I don't think the approach is good enough to be messed up by zone defenses, since I'm not dealing with counterparts at all!

Hey DSMok1 - are the offensive ratings just all the combined O stats including O rebounds, and defensive all the D stats including D rebounds (with obvious pace, SoS, etc adjustments obviously)? I could easily split mine - I bet the O and D results rankings would compare very well - with yours just having a little more defensive weight than mine.

Yes, that is how the split works. The full guide for how ASPM is calculated is located at http://godismyjudgeok.com/DStats/aspm-and-vorp/ .

[knarsu3]

How well does a player's ASPM in college correlate with his ASPM in the NBA? What is ASPM's predictive power for NBA prospects? I suppose having only 4 years of ASPM for college could make it difficult to project since you're working with a limited sample (not to mention that most of the players in your 4 year dataset probably haven't realized their full NBA potential yet)

[haz33]

DSMok1 --

Great information. Do you have game statistics available for each game in the 2012-13 season as well? Something that could potentially be downloaded in an Excel file or a text file?

Thanks!