2015 playoff summaries / notes

Home for all your discussion of basketball statistical analysis.
Mike G
Posts: 6175
Joined: Fri Apr 15, 2011 12:02 am
Location: Asheville, NC

Re: 2015 playoff summaries / notes

Post by Mike G »

Positional TS% in these playoffs, separated by the round of their elimination. Column marked 4 = players from the Finalist Cavs and Warriors.

Code: Select all

Pos     4       3       2       1
C     .547    .546    .534    .548
PF    .538    .496    .513    .514
SF    .512    .556    .537    .517
SG    .551    .579    .536    .513
PG    .604    .483    .517    .482
The only Finalists listed as PG are Curry, Livingston, and Irving. Kyrie (.581) drags it down.

Apparently 75 games have been played -- positions average 150 'games started'.

Code: Select all

pos   %Min   starts
SG    .269    186
PF    .204    140
SF    .189    151
PG    .188    123
C     .150    150
While everyone starts every game with a center, teams go centerless 1/4 of the game.
Some SG are playing defacto PG, and teams have gone with 3 guards about 29% of the time.
Crow
Posts: 10624
Joined: Thu Apr 14, 2011 11:10 pm

Re: 2015 playoff summaries / notes

Post by Crow »

So for 3 rounds the PGs are on average the worst or in one case almost worst quality scorers. But the media tells me that it is a star PG league...

Comparing round 1 exits to round 4 still standings, PG ts% quality has a huge differential. Few stars, lots of pretenders / phonies. C and SF little scoring quality difference, PF and SG moderate difference. Where would you emphasize your positional spending / drafting?

Comparing round 3 to 1, PG ts% is flat. Same for C. PF actually dipped. SF and SG were the risers.

Food for thought. Would probably be wise to see for 5-10 years.
Crow
Posts: 10624
Joined: Thu Apr 14, 2011 11:10 pm

Re: 2015 playoff summaries / notes

Post by Crow »

On minutes, it sounds like a 9 man rotation would be on average 4 guards, 2 SFs and 3 bigs. GSW is essentially that. Cle was before Love injury.

By position assignments at dougstats, Rockets were 5 guards and 4 bigs. Hawks 4 guards, 1 SF and 4 bigs. Did they play too big or is this an issue with position assignment?

Is the message, play small if your smalls are good? On average guards are not delivering on ts% but maybe for the best teams and maybe in other ways (assists, steals, shot defense)? Is the message also that you aren't going to win a title unless you have a certain level of perimeter quality / depth? Title winning Spurs last season were 5 guards 1.5 SFs, 2.5 bigs (if you split out Diaw).
Mike G
Posts: 6175
Joined: Fri Apr 15, 2011 12:02 am
Location: Asheville, NC

Re: 2015 playoff summaries / notes

Post by Mike G »

Ideally, your guards give you better ball movement, and you still manage to control the boards.
Rebounding advantage went with 6 of 8 first-round winners, 3 of 4 in the 2nd round, and resoundingly for both winners in the conf. finals.

Code: Select all

Win   Lose    Pts    Reb    TS%    TO
GSW vs Hou    8.2    7.6   .028     .4
Cle vs Atl   13.3   12.4   .036   -3.3
Again, those are differentials for the winners. Rebound advantage is strikingly parallel to scoring diff. They win with or without the shooting edge.
Crow
Posts: 10624
Joined: Thu Apr 14, 2011 11:10 pm

Re: 2015 playoff summaries / notes

Post by Crow »

Without the TS% advantage, Houston would be close enough to probably wins at least one more, possibly two if lucky on timing.

True, without TS% advantage, Cavs probably still sweep or close to it.



I'll be working on some of my previous questions later tonight, tomorrow or not much later.
huevonkiller
Posts: 146
Joined: Sun Apr 17, 2011 9:36 pm
Location: Miami, Florida

Re: 2015 playoff summaries / notes

Post by huevonkiller »

Mike G wrote: Those are career low TS%, FTr; worst TO% and WS rate since first postseason.
Also career high Usg%, Ast%, and TReb%.
The TS% is unsightly, I absolutely agree. However, I wouldn't go as far as Haberstroh does and compare him to 2001 AI. I think he had a rough first few games, but he seems to be playing significantly better. We'll have to see if he can maintain that ATL level.

He had 8 offensive rebounds in that massive triple double game against Atlanta, so his shooting wasn't quite that bad.
Mike G
Posts: 6175
Joined: Fri Apr 15, 2011 12:02 am
Location: Asheville, NC

Re: 2015 playoff summaries / notes

Post by Mike G »

Data dump, before I forget, from b-r.com, of the Finalists, after the 3rd round.

Code: Select all

Cavs      G   Min   PER   OWS  DWS    WS   WS/48  OBPM  DBPM   BPM  VOR
LeBron   14   570   24.8  1.0  1.2   2.15   .181   5.0   4.7   9.7  1.7
Thompson 14   480   15.9  1.3   .6   1.90   .190   1.2   1.0   2.3   .5
Shumpert 14   480   12.9   .8   .7   1.52   .152   2.1   1.8   3.9   .7
Irving   12   421   20.3  1.4   .5   1.90   .217   4.4   -.2   4.2   .7
Mozgov   14   359   16.2   .5   .6   1.13   .151  -1.6   2.4    .7   .2
Smith    12   358   17.0   .9   .6   1.43   .192   4.6    .4   5.0   .6
Dellav'a 14   306    8.9   .3   .2    .47   .074    .5  -2.4  -1.9   .0
Jones    14   198   10.8   .4   .2    .62   .150   2.5  -1.3   1.2   .2
Love      4   107   19.9   .3   .2    .49   .220   4.2   -.4   3.8   .2
Miller    4    37    9.8   .1   .1    .12   .157  -1.3  -2.0  -3.3   .0
Perkins   7    30    3.7  -.1   .1   -.05  -.084 -12.2   -.4 -12.5  -.1
Marion    6    25    6.0   .0   .1    .01   .011  -5.4   3.2  -2.2   .0
Harris    4    12   12.0   .0   .0    .02   .067   -.8  -5.4  -6.2   .0
Haywood   1     2  -21.1   .0   .0   -.02  -.512 -20.5  -5.5 -26.1   .0

Cavs      TS%  3PAr   FTr  ORb%  DRb%  TRb%  Ast% Stl% Blk%  TO%    Usg%
LeBron   .492  .195  .287   5.2  22.8  14.2  42.9  2.3  2.5  13.5   36.4
Thompson .610  .000  .765  13.3  18.5  15.9   2.3   .1  3.0   8.5   11.3
Shumpert .536  .562  .215   4.0  13.1   8.7   6.2  1.6  2.0   4.3   13.2
Irving   .581  .319  .417   2.2   8.2   5.3  18.4  1.6  1.7   9.0   23.1
Mozgov   .547  .000  .414  12.3  18.7  15.6   3.2   .7  6.1  15.8   17.8
Smith    .607  .705  .078   2.2  15.7   9.1   7.8  2.1  1.1   7.6   18.5
Dellav'a .531  .602  .253   2.2   6.7   4.5  19.2   .3   .0  17.8   16.8
Jones    .555  .911  .179    .6  10.9   5.9   5.6  1.1   .8   1.6   14.2
Love     .577  .512  .463   6.4  22.2  14.5  16.2   .5  1.5  10.8   23.7
Miller   1.00  1.00  .000    .0  26.3  13.5    .0   .0  2.2    .0    3.7
Perkins  .420  .000  1.33   7.6  21.6  14.8    .0   .0  8.1  29.6   20.7
Marion   .167  .000  .000   9.1  17.3  13.3   5.8  4.3   .0    .0   11.0
Harris   .509  .500  .333    .0   9.0   4.6  14.6   .0   .0  12.7   30.1
Haywood  .000  .000  .000    .0    .0    .0    .0   .0   .0    .0   22.9
                                 
Warriors   G   Min   PER   OWS   DWS   WS   WS/48  OBPM  DBPM   BPM  VORP
Curry     15   571   26.4  2.3   .8   3.09   .260  10.2   -.5   9.7  1.7
Green     15   562   16.7   .7  1.1   1.81   .155   1.8   4.1   5.9  1.1
Thompson  15   534   15.9   .7   .6   1.37   .123   2.4   -.7   1.6   .5
Barnes    15   484   12.8   .6   .6   1.16   .115    .7    .7   1.4   .4
Iguodala  15   412   14.0   .7   .6   1.33   .155   1.8   1.4   3.2   .5
Bogut     15   366   14.7   .3   .8   1.19   .156  -1.0   6.1   5.0   .7
Livingston 15  254   11.8   .4   .3    .63   .119  -1.0    .3   -.6   .1
Barbosa   15   165   12.4   .2   .1    .37   .108   -.3  -2.6  -2.9   .0
Ezeli     15   134   15.6   .2   .2    .38   .137  -2.0    .5  -1.5   .0
Lee        9    68    9.6   .0   .1    .08   .054  -5.5   -.2  -5.7  -.1
Speights   7    51   14.4  -.1   .1    .06   .054  -6.1   1.1  -5.1   .0
McAdoo     4     9   20.2   .0   .0    .02   .102  -5.4  -1.3  -6.7   .0
Holiday    4     9    2.2   .0   .0   -.02  -.101  -6.4  -2.4  -8.8   .0
Rush       3     7   -4.6   .0   .0   -.03  -.217 -14.9 -13.6 -28.5   .0
                                 
Warriors   TS%  3PAr   FTr  ORb%  DRb%  TRb%  Ast% Stl%  Blk%  TO%   Usg%
Curry     .615  .527  .281   2.9  11.1   7.1  30.5  2.5   .3  13.2   31.8
Green     .524  .407  .299   7.5  23.8  15.7  20.9  2.3  2.5  18.3   19.3
Thompson  .568  .431  .134   1.5   9.7   5.6  13.8  1.2  1.9  12.1   24.6
Barnes    .531  .289  .168   6.2  10.7   8.5   8.4  1.3  1.3  10.1   16.3
Iguodala  .516  .470  .370   2.7  12.8   7.8  17.7  2.2   .9   6.4   13.3
Bogut     .565  .015  .136  10.9  27.4  19.3  11.7  1.4  6.1  23.9   11.1
Livingston .610 .000  .315   3.5   9.3   6.5  14.3  1.2   .9  19.6   13.3
Barbosa   .522  .258  .290   4.0   7.2   5.6  14.1   .9   .0  10.3   20.9
Ezeli     .559  .000  .514  14.1  22.5  18.3   4.5   .4  4.0  15.7   16.8
Lee       .336  .000  .160  14.7  23.8  19.3   4.3  1.5  2.3   3.6   18.1
Speights  .403  .000  .448  10.9  23.2  17.1   9.6  3.0  4.5   8.0   32.7
McAdoo    .667  .000  .000  12.3  23.9  18.2    .0   .0  8.6  25.0   19.7
Holiday   .750  .500  .000    .0  12.0   6.1  16.0   .0   .0  50.0   19.7
Rush      .250  .333  .000  15.8  30.8  23.4    .0   .0   .0    .0   37.9
Crow
Posts: 10624
Joined: Thu Apr 14, 2011 11:10 pm

Re: 2015 playoff summaries / notes

Post by Crow »

In the first round of eastern playoffs, the losing team's guards average minutes weighted usage was 30% more than the bigs (defined here at PF/C). The advantage of the bigs over the guards on offensive rating was much smaller than on ts%, because of consideration of assists and turnovers. For the round one winners the usage gap between guards and bigs was less than 10%. A factor in margin of victory at least. A gap remained on offensive rating, still favoring the bigs. I might do the west later.
Mike G
Posts: 6175
Joined: Fri Apr 15, 2011 12:02 am
Location: Asheville, NC

Re: 2015 playoff summaries / notes

Post by Mike G »

Through 3 rounds of playoffs, ranked by xyz = ((PER-5)*eWins*WinShares*(BPM+5)) ^ (1/4)
(4th root of 4 summary stats -- 2 are per minute, and 2 are minutes weighted)

Code: Select all

xyz   thru 3 rounds    tm   Min    PER   e484   eWins   WS   WS/48   BPM
7.39   Stephen Curry  GSW   571   26.4   2.60   3.06   3.09   .260   9.7
6.80   LeBron James   Cle   569   24.8   2.91   3.42   2.15   .181   9.7
6.43   James Harden   Hou   636   24.5   2.04   2.68   2.64   .199   7.4
5.86   Blake Griffin  LAC   557   24.6   2.21   2.55   2.08   .179   6.4
5.84   Chris Paul     LAC   445   25.6   2.13   1.95   2.30   .248   7.6

5.04   Jimmy Butler   Chi   506   20.7   1.67   1.75   2.14   .203   6.0
4.55   DeAndre Jordan LAC   482   20.6   1.55   1.54   1.93   .192   4.3
4.52   Marc Gasol     Mem   416   21.2   2.00   1.72   1.40   .161   5.8
4.47   Draymond Green GSW   562   16.7   1.49   1.73   1.81   .155   5.9
4.40   Kyrie Irving   Cle   421   20.3   1.61   1.40   1.90   .217   4.2

xyz   thru 3 rounds    tm   Min    PER   e484   eWins   WS   WS/48   BPM
4.25   Al Horford     Atl   522   19.7   1.62   1.74   1.53   .141   3.3
4.22   Dwight Howard  Hou   574   20.3   1.68   1.99   1.51   .126   1.9
4.12   Tim Duncan     SAS   250   24.1   1.94    .99   1.19   .229   7.7
3.79  DeMarre Carroll Atl   558   16.7   1.10   1.27   1.83   .157   2.6
3.66   Marcin Gortat  Was   307   19.3   1.45    .92   1.30   .203   5.5

3.59   Pau Gasol      Chi   317   20.0   1.84   1.21   1.10   .166   3.4
3.57   Bradley Beal   Was   418   17.8   1.41   1.22   1.22   .140   3.5
3.49   J.R. Smith     Cle   358   17.0   1.16    .86   1.43   .192   5.0
3.48   Paul Millsap   Atl   566   16.3   1.28   1.50   1.27   .108   1.8
3.42   Klay Thompson  GSW   534   15.9   1.26   1.39   1.37   .123   1.6

xyz   thru 3 rounds    tm   Min    PER   e484   eWins   WS   WS/48   BPM
3.36 Tristan Thompson Cle   480   15.9    .85    .84   1.90   .190   2.3
3.28   Anthony Davis  NOP   172   28.3   2.13    .74    .66   .183   5.2
3.28   Jeff Teague    Atl   529   17.6   1.47   1.61   1.04   .094    .5
3.21   Derrick Rose   Chi   454   16.6   1.68   1.57    .83   .088   2.0
3.17   Andrew Bogut   GSW   366   14.7   1.16    .88   1.19   .156   5.0

3.09   Paul Pierce    Was   298   16.2   1.22    .75   1.18   .190   4.1
2.98   John Wall      Was   273   19.1   1.60    .91    .78   .137   2.9
2.96   Mike Dunleavy  Chi   389   14.3    .86    .69   1.38   .170   3.7
2.96   Trevor Ariza   Hou   655   12.9    .61    .82   1.36   .100   3.6
2.90   Andre Iguodala GSW   412   14.0    .84    .72   1.33   .155   3.2
2.90   Kawhi Leonard  SAS   250   19.7   1.47    .76    .74   .143   3.5
Mike G
Posts: 6175
Joined: Fri Apr 15, 2011 12:02 am
Location: Asheville, NC

Re: 2015 playoff summaries / notes

Post by Mike G »

Some team numbers after 3 rounds. Taken from http://www.basketball-reference.com/pla ... r_playoffs
- Pythagorean wins (PyW) based on MOV.
- Win Shares (WS) -- from team pages, player WS = (WS/48)*Min/48. Player WS then summed, and team WS yields team WS/48.
- Team PER and BPM from minutes-weighted player rates.

Teams are ranked by BPM, since that's the one stat here which is apparently adjusted for strength of competition.
Regular season SRS (basis of BPM adjustment?) is also shown.

Code: Select all

tm   RS SRS   mov    G   PyW    WS    eWins   PER   WS/48  e484    BPM
Cle   4.08    8.8   14  10.9  11.63   8.81   16.6   .166   1.25   3.47
GSW  10.01    8.1   15  11.3  11.36   9.34   16.3   .151   1.24   3.23
Was    .17    3.9   10   6.3   6.52   5.43   15.1   .130   1.07   2.17
SAS   6.34     .4    7   3.6   3.74   3.55   15.4   .107   1.00   2.16

LAC   6.80    1.4   14   7.6   7.64   7.28   16.0   .109   1.03   2.13
Mem   3.62   -1.3   11   5.0   5.10   5.27   14.9   .093    .96   1.99
Chi   2.54    3.4   12   7.5   7.43   6.49   14.9   .124   1.06   1.82
Hou   3.82   -2.5   17   7.2   7.32   7.88   15.0   .086    .93   1.39

tm   RS SRS   mov    G   PyW     WS   eWins   PER   WS/48  e484    BPM
NOP   1.13   -8.0    4   1.0    .96   1.53   15.3   .048    .75   1.18
Atl   4.75   - .2   16   7.9   7.96   8.11   14.8   .099   1.00    .37
Brk  -3.13   -5.5    6   1.9   2.00   2.47   13.7   .067    .81    .28
Dal   3.36   -4.2    5   1.9   2.06   2.19   15.2   .082    .88    .26

Por   4.41   -6.8    5   1.4   1.34   1.96   13.1   .054    .79   -.38
Bos   -.40   -9.3    4    .9    .46   1.45   12.3   .023    .72   -.73
Mil   -.09  -12.3    6    .8    .80   1.95   12.3   .027    .63  -1.80
Tor   2.45  -14.0    4    .5    .09   1.28   12.2   .004    .62  -3.01

all   3.95          75  75.7   76.4   75.0   15.0   .102   1.00   1.45
Raps' and Celts' WS seem anomalously low. I've written to b-r.com about this. Shouldn't they roughly match Pyth wins?
Cavs' WS seem too high; and the total of all is high. Some discrepancy is likely from overtime minutes (for which I've not controlled very well).
Should a team's MOV+OppSRS = 5*BPM ?
Crow
Posts: 10624
Joined: Thu Apr 14, 2011 11:10 pm

Re: 2015 playoff summaries / notes

Post by Crow »

Both Cavs and Warriors are getting quality performance from the role players. I don't know offhand how much if their success is their stars being better than opposing vs. role players better than opposing but I guess the boxscore based data is here.
Mike G
Posts: 6175
Joined: Fri Apr 15, 2011 12:02 am
Location: Asheville, NC

Re: 2015 playoff summaries / notes

Post by Mike G »

Three rounds' rates -- per 36 minutes, adjusted to certain standards -- and totals for Warriors and Cavs rotations.

Code: Select all

   Stephen Curry                                                  LeBron James                        
rd  mpg  Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e480     rd  mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e480
1   40  .603   35.3   5.1   6.7   1.2   3.8   .0   2.62      1   43  .522   25.1   7.6   6.8   1.9   4.1  1.3   2.30
2   38  .553   28.8   5.0   8.0   2.1   3.9   .2   2.49      2   41  .454   24.5  10.4  10.2   1.5   4.4  1.4   2.95
3   37  .670   37.6   4.6   5.4   2.0   3.0   .2   2.70      3   38  .498   32.2  11.3  10.1   1.4   3.9   .4   3.46
T   38  .606   33.5   4.9   6.8   1.8   3.6   .1   2.60     all  41  .485   26.8   9.8   9.1   1.6   4.2  1.1   2.91
   Draymond Green                                                Tristan Thompson                        
rd  mpg  Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e480     rd  mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e480
1   42  .558   14.5  11.9   5.6   2.2   2.2  1.1   1.76      1   26  .630   11.4   9.2   1.2    .3    .7   .7    .75
2   34  .510   15.4   9.2   5.8   2.0   3.6   .7   1.37      2   37  .589    9.9  11.6    .4    .0    .5  1.4    .85
3   38  .490   13.4  11.7   5.8    .8   3.1  1.7   1.39      3   39  .566   12.2  11.0    .5    .0   1.3  1.5    .89
T   37  .516   14.5  10.8   5.8   1.6   3.0  1.2   1.49     all  34  .589   11.0  10.9    .6    .1    .8  1.3    .85
   Klay Thompson                                                Iman Shumpert                        
rd  mpg  Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e480     rd  mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e480
1   38  .610   25.3   3.3   2.0    .7   1.7  1.2   1.48      1   29  .667    9.2   6.6    .7   1.2    .3  1.2    .51
2   37  .572   20.9   4.9   4.1    .8   3.3   .7   1.26      2   36  .521   12.7   4.8   2.0   1.4    .2   .9    .87
3   32  .511   19.7   3.0   4.0   1.1   2.2   .9   1.05      3   37  .475    9.1   6.9   2.0    .5   1.1   .5    .39
T   36  .564   21.8   3.9   3.5    .9   2.5   .9   1.26     all  34  .530   10.8   5.9   1.7   1.1    .5   .9    .64
   Harrison Barnes                                                   Kyrie Irving                        
rd  mpg  Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e480     rd  mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e480
1   32  .500    8.9   7.7   2.7   1.2    .6   .9    .72      1   41  .567   23.1   4.5   4.6    .9   1.1   .9   1.79
2   34  .597   15.8   5.0   2.0    .4   2.0   .9    .75      2   35  .571   21.5   2.4   3.2   1.4   2.1   .7   1.30
3   31  .468   11.8   5.5   2.3   1.4   1.3   .0    .52      3   12  .565   23.3   5.6   9.1    .7   2.4   .7   2.23
T   32  .526   12.7   5.9   2.3    .9   1.4   .6    .67     all  30  .569   22.4   3.6   4.4   1.1   1.8   .8   1.61
   Andre Iguodala                                               Timofey Mozgov                        
rd  mpg  Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e480     rd  mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e480
1   28  .373    5.5   4.2   3.5    .6    .0   .0    .11      1   25  .609   17.6  12.2    .0    .4   3.5  4.5   1.50
2   27  .638   14.9   5.6   4.9    .8    .6   .4   1.29      2   26  .442   10.5   9.6   1.7    .7   1.8  2.2    .81
3   27  .461    8.5   5.2   5.8   3.1   1.4   .8    .89      3   27  .606   17.3  11.0    .4    .3   2.2  1.6   1.22
T   27  .506   10.3   5.1   4.8   1.5    .7   .4    .84     all  26  .536   14.5  10.7    .8    .5   2.4  2.6   1.13
   Andrew Bogut                                                 J.R. Smith                        
rd  mpg  Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e480     rd  mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e480
1   28  .595   8.8   12.7   3.0   1.0   2.0  2.7   1.11      1   27  .464   11.8   4.5   1.7   3.1    .7   .0    .69
2   25  .560   7.8   11.8   3.4   1.5   2.0  3.0   1.13      2   19  .680   17.8   4.9   1.3    .6   1.3   .5    .89
3   21  .531   9.1   15.9   3.7    .3   2.9  3.1   1.25      3   34  .661   22.6   8.4   2.3    .8   1.4   .7   1.74
T   24  .560   8.5   13.3   3.4   1.0   2.3  2.9   1.16     all  26  .604   17.8   6.1   1.8   1.4   1.2   .5   1.16
   Shaun Livingston                                                 Matthew Dellavedova                        
rd  mpg  Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e480     rd  mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e480
1   16  .515    8.5   3.3   3.7    .5    .5   .5    .27      1   11  .385    6.8   3.1   4.8    .0   2.4   .0   -.15
2   16  .688   10.0   3.8   3.4    .7   2.4   .7    .20      2   23  .694   15.7   2.0   6.0    .0   2.3   .0    .67
3   19  .600   14.7   4.7   3.8   1.1   2.7   .0    .63      3   31  .427   10.7   4.0   3.3    .6   2.5   .0    .20
T   17  .600   11.4   4.1   3.6    .8   2.1   .4    .38     all  22  .524   12.4   3.0   4.7    .2   2.4   .0    .36
   Leandro Barbosa                                                 James Jones                        
rd  mpg  Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e480     rd  mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e480
1   12  .490   14.5   3.5   1.3    .0   2.0   .0    .23      1   12  .357    5.1   3.7    .0    .0    .0   .7   -.36
2    8  .645   17.1   2.6   3.9    .6   3.2   .0    .46      2   12  .654   16.0   3.9    .5    .4    .5   .0    .48
3   14  .468   13.0   4.1   4.4   1.0    .0   .0    .81      3   20  .548   10.3   3.2   2.8   1.3    .0   .4    .51
T   11  .514   14.6   3.5   3.3    .6   1.5   .0    .54     all  14  .549   11.1   3.6   1.3    .7    .2   .3    .30
   Festus Ezeli                                                         
rd  mpg  Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e480                                 
1    5  .357    6.3  11.9    .0    .0    .0   .0    .34                                 
2    6  .643    7.6   6.9    .0    .0    .0  2.6    .53                                 
3   16  .567   15.6  13.1   1.8    .4   2.8  1.8   1.22                                 
T    9  .545   12.2  11.3   1.1    .3   1.7  1.7    .92                                 
                                                            
While 1.00 eWins per 480 minutes is average in an NBA season, these rates are average for the series in which the teams have played. In the Finals, "average" is near all-star caliber.
Mike G
Posts: 6175
Joined: Fri Apr 15, 2011 12:02 am
Location: Asheville, NC

Re: 2015 playoff summaries / notes

Post by Mike G »

Crow wrote:Both Cavs and Warriors are getting quality performance from the role players. I don't know offhand how much if their success is their stars being better than opposing vs. role players better than opposing but I guess the boxscore based data is here.
The Cavs have several players whose shooting% have dropped with increased minutes, round to round : Shumpert, Deli, Jones, and (a bit) T Thompson. These guys have stepped in for Love and Irving, and in general have gotten stronger thru rounds 1-3.

For GS, K Thompson has become a sort of role player -- weaker play and fewer mpg thru each round.
Festus Ezeli has picked up minutes from Bogut, Speights, and (apparently) D Lee, and his round 3 was excellent.
Two guys who seemed to be out of the league at least once, Barbosa and Livingston, doing very well, esp. of late.
Mike G
Posts: 6175
Joined: Fri Apr 15, 2011 12:02 am
Location: Asheville, NC

Re: 2015 playoff summaries / notes

Post by Mike G »

Mike G wrote:...
Should a team's MOV+OppSRS = 5*BPM ?
Apparently people who know don't read these threads.
Does anyone have an educated guess?
Crow
Posts: 10624
Joined: Thu Apr 14, 2011 11:10 pm

Re: 2015 playoff summaries / notes

Post by Crow »

BPM is per 100 possessions, so you have to adjust to game or average game pace. But other than that you are probably on right path.
Post Reply