End-of-game Decision Evaluations

[bballrelativity]

Hi all,

I wanted to introduce something I've been working on. The goal is to evaluate the decisions NBA teams make down the stretch in games (final 3 minutes). I've developed a win probability calculation similar to win probability on inpredictable.com, and I use team statistics to find the best decision for the offense (shoot a 2-point or 3-point field goal) and defense (intentionally foul or play straight-up defense). You can find the details at https://basketballrelativity.wordpress.com/ as well as end-of-game evaluations for the first three games of the NBA Finals.

I would appreciate any feedback, questions, or suggestions. I'm always looking to improve, so please let me know what you think. I hope this helps tide you over until Game 5 tonight.

Best,
Basketball Relative

Twitter @bballrelativity

[Crow]

Hey.

The 0 to 1 scale with 0 being best didn't feel immediately comfortable. Can of course get use to it; but wondered about making it 0 to -1 or possibly flipping it to 1 to 0. Not a big deal, but that is my main feedback.

Let us know about your big data findings.

[bballrelativity]

You're right. 1 being the optimal decision would make more sense intuitively.