NBA Player "Stat Line" Projections

[tacoman206]

Hey all,

I've been working on season-stat-line projections for NBA players for the past few days, and I've linked it below. It's still pretty bare-bones, as there aren't as many team-wide adjustments as I would like.

Per 36 Minutes/Rate Stats (The first tab shows per 36 minute projections, while the second tab shows advanced stat projections.

Per Game/Total Stats (First tab shows per game projections, second tab shows total projections).

I used the Marcel and Simple Projection System as bases for this system. I used Kevin Pelton's minutes projections for the per-game stats. Much of the work involved shooting percentages, and I'm still not sure if I used the right approach towards them.

Things the system could improve upon:

1. Team-wide rebounding (i.e., the diminishing returns of having a great rebounder on the team)

2. 3-point shooting percentages for low usage players

3. Possibly regresses scoring too much (it has 22 players scoring 20+ points per 36 minutes, while SPS has 30)

4. Using things other than solely NBA stats

Let me know what you guys think!

[Crow]

For stars, which projections are you closest and further away on? Would you revise anything? You could and see how much better you can get.