Home for all your discussion of basketball statistical analysis.
Mike G
Posts: 6175 Joined: Fri Apr 15, 2011 12:02 amLocation: Asheville, NC
Post
by Mike G Wed May 25, 2016 10:28 am
Thunder 3 , Warriors 1
avg score 112.5 - 104.8
pyth wins 2.88 - 1.12, eWins 2.44 - 1.56
Code: Select all
eWins per36 rates tm mpg Eff% Sco Reb Ast PF Stl TO Blk e480
.89 Russell Westbrook OKC 36 .545 29.0 6.5 12.4 1.8 3.8 4.3 .0 2.97
.63 Kevin Durant OKC 39 .548 28.2 8.2 2.5 2.1 1.9 4.2 1.6 1.97
.46 Stephen Curry GSW 35 .571 25.9 5.5 4.3 1.6 2.1 4.5 .0 1.58
.31 Klay Thompson GSW 31 .512 21.9 4.8 2.9 2.7 1.2 2.4 .3 1.21
.29 Andre Roberson OKC 27 .636 14.6 8.8 1.8 3.4 2.4 .7 1.3 1.29
.26 Steven Adams OKC 29 .638 14.8 10.7 1.0 3.8 .6 1.0 1.2 1.10
.18 Serge Ibaka OKC 33 .536 10.6 9.4 .3 3.3 1.4 1.5 1.3 .66
.16 Andre Iguodala GSW 29 .578 10.6 4.0 3.1 2.1 3.0 .9 .0 .66
.16 Draymond Green GSW 35 .421 9.2 6.9 4.0 3.1 1.5 3.4 1.3 .54
.15 Festus Ezeli GSW 10 .585 26.0 8.8 1.5 7.6 .0 .9 .8 1.72
eWins per36 rates tm mpg Eff% Sco Reb Ast PF Stl TO Blk e480
.12 Andrew Bogut GSW 14 .750 9.5 10.7 4.3 8.6 1.3 2.0 2.0 1.03
.11 Enes Kanter OKC 15 .463 12.9 12.8 1.3 5.3 .6 3.1 1.1 .87
.07 Dion Waiters OKC 31 .526 10.4 2.2 3.9 2.5 .3 1.2 .3 .25
.07 Marreese Speights GSW 10 .500 20.9 7.2 .0 7.6 .8 5.1 1.7 .76
.04 Harrison Barnes GSW 33 .641 10.4 4.5 1.3 2.2 .3 .9 .0 .17
.03 Leandro Barbosa GSW 8 .500 11.5 3.1 3.1 3.3 2.2 1.1 .0 .52
.02 Ian Clark GSW 8 .409 8.4 5.4 4.3 2.3 2.3 3.5 .0 .34
.01 Shaun Livingston GSW 18 .364 5.2 4.6 4.2 2.9 .5 1.0 .0 .07
-.04 Randy Foye OKC 17 .500 4.8 2.0 1.6 5.0 1.0 .5 .5 -.30
shooting: OKC .545 - .527 GS
rebounds:
OKC 49.0 - 41.8 GS
turnovers: OKC 14.5 - 15.3 GS
Crow
Posts: 10624 Joined: Thu Apr 14, 2011 11:10 pm
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by Crow Thu May 26, 2016 7:05 am
Overall has the ewins shares of top 2-3 guys on team vs. rest of team gone up or down by round, compared to regular season and longterm comps? By particular still standing teams and on average? That would be illuminating analysis. A springboard into offensive performance, defensive strategy and performance, team building for regular season vs. playoffs, whether league stars are great, watered down or what right now, etc.
Mike G
Posts: 6175 Joined: Fri Apr 15, 2011 12:02 amLocation: Asheville, NC
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by Mike G Thu May 26, 2016 12:24 pm
Stars play more minutes in playoffs, esp in closer games. Generally that means more minutes in later rounds.
Crow
Posts: 10624 Joined: Thu Apr 14, 2011 11:10 pm
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by Crow Thu May 26, 2016 4:39 pm
More concentration of impact at the top would be my assumption but wondered if this year's data was as strong as normal or not. Suspicious that it might be weaker than normal for these final 4 teams on average. I mentioned by ewins but I might check by winshares per 48 minutes later as I can get that data for regular season and playoffs easily and can isolate efficiency from the minute increase.
Crow
Posts: 10624 Joined: Thu Apr 14, 2011 11:10 pm
Post
by Crow Thu May 26, 2016 6:42 pm
This is small and crude but by cumulative ws/48 of top 3 Warriors, last season they slightly outperformed regular season in playoffs. This playoffs, almost a 25% shortfall. Last season top 3 Cavs outperformed regular season by 10% until Love went down. This season outperforming regular season by almost 25%. Thunder big 3 down 10% cumulatively this playoffs vs regular season. Curry and Durant off regular season ws/48 by 50% each in playoffs. Raptors big 3 down too, by 40% overall. Lowry by 65%, DeRozan by 90%. JV improved a bit.
Mike G
Posts: 6175 Joined: Fri Apr 15, 2011 12:02 amLocation: Asheville, NC
Post
by Mike G Thu May 26, 2016 7:46 pm
DeRozan is a star, shooting .56 to get 24 ppg. Only one teammate in double figures.
Crow
Posts: 10624 Joined: Thu Apr 14, 2011 11:10 pm
Post
by Crow Thu May 26, 2016 8:06 pm
Biyombo has stepped up in playoffs and minutes but JV when playing has a better ws/48 by about 33%. Toronto bigs are the real stars in their playoffs. Lowry is meh and DeRozan very bad on average.
Mike G
Posts: 6175 Joined: Fri Apr 15, 2011 12:02 amLocation: Asheville, NC
Post
by Mike G Thu May 26, 2016 8:54 pm
A stat with good correlation to minutes is eWins. Here are the 2-3 ECFinalist Raps:
Code: Select all
eWins Raptors mpg Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e480
.54 DeMar DeRozan 36 .559 24.4 3.5 3.0 .8 1.9 .2 1.43
.35 Kyle Lowry 34 .538 19.1 5.5 4.2 1.1 4.3 .0 .97
.29 Bismack Biyombo 32 .630 7.7 13.0 .4 .5 1.0 2.4 .87
.14 Cory Joseph 20 .476 12.9 5.9 3.4 1.0 2.2 .0 .67
.10 James Johnson 13 .667 15.0 6.5 2.2 1.0 2.1 .0 .74
.03 DeMarre Carroll 26 .389 7.3 4.5 1.8 1.1 1.2 .6 .11
.03 Patrick Patterson 28 .529 8.7 3.9 2.5 .5 1.6 .3 .09
.03 Luis Scola 15 .556 9.4 3.2 2.2 1.0 .5 .0 .16
-.01 Terrence Ross 15 .387 8.2 3.3 1.2 1.8 1.9 .0 -.09
DC is obviously worn down with LeBron; these other 3 may be also, but they just haven't done squat among them.
I realize there's no Win Shares per series. They can be extracted.
Mike G
Posts: 6175 Joined: Fri Apr 15, 2011 12:02 amLocation: Asheville, NC
Post
by Mike G Fri May 27, 2016 11:04 am
Thunder 3,
Warriors 2
avg score 112.2 - 107.8
Pyth wins 3.15 - 1.85, eWins 2.82 - 2.18
Code: Select all
eWins per36 rates tm mpg Eff% Sco Reb Ast PF Stl TO Blk e480
1.03 Russell Westbrook OKC 37 .528 27.0 6.5 10.8 2.4 3.9 4.7 .0 2.68
.81 Kevin Durant OKC 40 .544 27.7 7.7 2.6 2.2 1.7 3.8 1.4 1.95
.65 Stephen Curry GSW 35 .582 26.6 5.7 4.6 1.2 2.7 4.7 .0 1.78
.40 Klay Thompson GSW 32 .514 22.3 4.8 2.7 3.0 1.1 2.6 .2 1.21
.31 Andre Roberson OKC 28 .632 12.4 8.4 2.1 4.2 2.4 .8 1.0 1.07
.30 Steven Adams OKC 29 .634 13.1 11.0 1.0 3.8 .5 1.1 1.2 1.00
.27 Andrew Bogut GSW 17 .750 13.3 12.7 3.7 6.9 1.7 2.2 2.2 1.52
.26 Draymond Green GSW 36 .431 9.0 7.9 3.9 3.2 1.4 3.1 1.8 .68
.24 Serge Ibaka OKC 34 .558 10.6 8.9 .9 3.0 1.1 1.1 1.0 .67
.20 Andre Iguodala GSW 30 .592 10.0 3.3 4.2 2.1 2.6 1.0 .2 .64
eWins per36 rates tm mpg Eff% Sco Reb Ast PF Stl TO Blk e480
.15 Festus Ezeli GSW 9 .600 24.2 8.5 1.4 6.7 .0 .8 .7 1.60
.13 Marreese Speights GSW 10 .562 27.5 7.2 .0 7.6 .7 5.0 1.4 1.25
.09 Enes Kanter OKC 13 .456 11.4 12.3 1.0 5.7 .5 3.2 1.0 .64
.05 Anthony Morrow OKC 5 .739 28.6 .0 1.4 2.9 .0 3.0 .0 .97
.03 Harrison Barnes GSW 31 .603 9.6 4.0 1.4 2.4 .5 .7 .0 .10
.03 Leandro Barbosa GSW 8 .500 8.8 2.5 2.5 2.6 3.4 .9 .0 .36
.02 Dion Waiters OKC 30 .476 7.8 2.8 4.0 2.8 .2 1.2 .2 .07
.02 Brandon Rush GSW 5 .667 5.2 12.5 1.4 4.4 .0 .0 .0 .42
.02 Ian Clark GSW 6 .409 8.1 5.3 4.3 2.3 2.3 3.5 .0 .29
.01 Shaun Livingston GSW 17 .393 6.4 4.2 4.3 2.8 .4 1.2 .0 .08
-.07 Randy Foye OKC 16 .538 5.3 2.2 1.3 4.8 .9 1.4 .4 -.43
shooting: .544 - .544
rebounds: OKC 48.2 - 42.4 GS
turnovers: OKC 15.0 - 15.4 GS
Mike G
Posts: 6175 Joined: Fri Apr 15, 2011 12:02 amLocation: Asheville, NC
Post
by Mike G Sun May 29, 2016 12:23 pm
Thunder 3,
Warriors 3
avg score 110.3 - 107.8
Pyth wins 3.45 - 2.55, eWins 3.23 - 2.77
Code: Select all
eWins per36 rates tm mpg Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e480
1.20 Russell Westbrook OKC 38 .511 26.1 6.6 10.7 3.8 4.6 .0 2.52
.90 Kevin Durant OKC 41 .515 26.4 7.3 2.6 1.6 3.6 1.6 1.78
.88 Stephen Curry GSW 36 .579 27.8 6.2 5.4 2.5 4.3 .0 1.95
.59 Klay Thompson GSW 33 .547 25.9 4.5 2.2 1.1 2.3 .4 1.42
.38 Andre Roberson OKC 28 .670 13.8 8.6 1.7 2.2 1.3 1.4 1.08
.36 Draymond Green GSW 37 .449 9.6 8.2 4.3 1.6 3.0 1.6 .78
.33 Steven Adams OKC 29 .616 13.1 11.1 1.0 .6 1.3 1.0 .92
.30 Andrew Bogut GSW 19 .667 11.8 11.1 4.2 1.3 2.0 2.3 1.25
.28 Serge Ibaka OKC 35 .550 10.4 8.9 .7 .9 .9 1.3 .64
.24 Andre Iguodala GSW 31 .576 9.6 3.9 3.7 2.6 1.0 .2 .61
eWins per36 rates tm mpg Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e480
.16 Festus Ezeli GSW 8 .614 27.8 8.4 1.4 .0 1.5 .7 1.67
.13 Enes Kanter OKC 13 .507 14.2 12.1 .9 .5 3.3 1.3 .83
.11 Marreese Speights GSW 9 .506 24.1 7.6 .0 .6 5.1 1.2 .94
.06 Harrison Barnes GSW 31 .615 10.3 3.6 1.4 .8 1.0 .0 .15
.03 Leandro Barbosa GSW 7 .500 8.9 2.4 2.6 3.4 .9 .0 .40
.00 Dion Waiters OKC 31 .457 6.5 3.0 3.5 .4 1.0 .2 .00
-.00 Shaun Livingston GSW 17 .344 5.1 3.9 4.6 .3 1.4 .0 -.01
-.08 Randy Foye OKC 14 .538 5.0 2.0 1.2 .8 1.7 .4 -.45
shooting: GS .539 - .532 OKC
rebounds: OKC 48.3 - 42.8 GS
turnovers: GS 15.0 - 15.3 OKC
Mike G
Posts: 6175 Joined: Fri Apr 15, 2011 12:02 amLocation: Asheville, NC
Post
by Mike G Tue May 31, 2016 10:54 am
Warriors 4, Thunder 3
avg score: OKC 107.1 - 106.1 GS
pyth wins 3.72 - 3.28, eWins 3.61 - 3.39
Code: Select all
eWins per36 rates tm mpg Eff% Sco Reb Ast PF Stl TO Blk e480
1.35 Russell Westbrook OKC 39 .499 24.3 6.3 10.5 2.3 3.4 4.2 .0 2.36
1.20 Stephen Curry GSW 37 .602 31.4 5.9 5.6 1.4 2.1 4.1 .0 2.24
1.06 Kevin Durant OKC 41 .529 26.6 6.8 2.5 2.1 1.5 3.2 1.4 1.76
.67 Klay Thompson GSW 34 .541 24.5 4.5 1.9 2.7 1.1 2.0 .5 1.33
.41 Draymond Green GSW 38 .434 9.1 8.2 4.3 3.6 1.5 2.8 1.7 .76
.37 Steven Adams OKC 29 .569 12.7 11.0 1.1 3.8 .5 1.3 .9 .88
.35 Andre Roberson OKC 30 .573 10.5 8.9 1.4 3.9 1.8 1.1 1.3 .81
.31 Andrew Bogut GSW 18 .654 11.3 11.0 3.8 5.8 1.2 1.8 2.0 1.16
.30 Serge Ibaka OKC 36 .558 10.7 7.8 .7 2.9 .7 .8 1.2 .58
.24 Andre Iguodala GSW 33 .556 8.9 3.8 3.6 1.8 2.2 1.0 .2 .49
eWins per36 rates tm mpg Eff% Sco Reb Ast PF Stl TO Blk e480
.19 Enes Kanter OKC 12 .519 16.3 12.3 .8 5.7 .4 2.9 1.5 1.07
.16 Festus Ezeli GSW 8 .587 23.4 8.9 1.2 6.4 .0 2.4 .6 1.30
.12 Marreese Speights GSW 9 .506 24.8 7.6 .0 8.6 .6 5.3 1.1 .98
.12 Harrison Barnes GSW 29 .592 10.2 4.6 1.6 2.5 1.1 1.1 .0 .27
.04 Leandro Barbosa GSW 6 .500 9.9 3.0 2.4 3.2 3.2 .8 .0 .50
.04 Anthony Morrow OKC 4 .680 25.4 .0 1.2 2.5 .0 2.6 .0 .75
.04 Shaun Livingston GSW 16 .370 5.8 5.2 4.4 3.3 .3 1.2 .3 .17
.03 Anderson Varejao GSW 3 .667 10.3 8.9 3.1 4.6 .0 .0 .0 .71
.03 Ian Clark GSW 4 .409 8.7 5.5 4.7 2.3 2.3 3.5 .0 .43
.02 Brandon Rush GSW 3 .667 5.7 12.8 1.5 4.5 .0 .0 .0 .50
eWins per36 rates tm mpg Eff% Sco Reb Ast PF Stl TO Blk e480
-.01 Kyle Singler OKC 3 .200 1.2 5.0 .0 1.7 1.7 .0 .0 -.34
-.02 Dion Waiters OKC 31 .421 5.9 3.1 3.3 2.3 .3 1.0 .3 -.05
-.08 Randy Foye OKC 12 .538 5.2 2.0 1.2 4.5 .8 1.7 .4 -.44
shooting: GS .537 - .521 OKC
rebounds: OKC 48.1 - 43.1 GS
turnovers: OKC 13.9 - 14.7 GS