Hi All,
Latest post is up at www.zigzaganalytics.com where I look into the effectiveness of going for the 6 point swing. Meaning a team misses a 3 point attempt and the very next play the opposition drills a 3 pointer and therefore causing a 6 point swing on the scoreboard and gaining the momentum.
I apply some logistic regression and then describe in simple terms what the chances of a team winning are if they convert the 6 point swing.
When should NBA teams roll the dice on a 6 point swing?
Re: When should NBA teams roll the dice on a 6 point swing?
You've shown a knack for finding questions not addressed or at least well known to be addressed.
One possible extension on this would be to look at how player / team behavior changes after first such make or miss in a game. Who increases frequency, who "gets hot"?
One possible extension on this would be to look at how player / team behavior changes after first such make or miss in a game. Who increases frequency, who "gets hot"?
Re: When should NBA teams roll the dice on a 6 point swing?
Thanks for the feedback. Yeah I had the same exact thoughts as you in regards to getting hot or how much momentum is carried forward and for how long. A tough one to look at as obviously there are so many variables in the "get hot" and momentum factor. I'll play around with the data I have and see if there are any trends/observations worth mentioning.
At a guess I would assume the rate of timeouts by coaches would increase after the 6 point swing happens to reduce momentum effects.
At a guess I would assume the rate of timeouts by coaches would increase after the 6 point swing happens to reduce momentum effects.
Re: When should NBA teams roll the dice on a 6 point swing?
In what sense is this a "6 point swing"? Making a 3 doesn't take 3 off the scoreboard for the opponent.
Are you asking whether there is an emotional component to hitting a 3, after the opponent has missed one? and there's added value in this?
How does the opponent's choice of a (missed) 3 have anything to do with your ensuing possession?
There are several ways to get zero points, and they seem to all be equal in value; except that maybe a live-ball turnover leads to more options for the other team.
Are you asking whether there is an emotional component to hitting a 3, after the opponent has missed one? and there's added value in this?
How does the opponent's choice of a (missed) 3 have anything to do with your ensuing possession?
There are several ways to get zero points, and they seem to all be equal in value; except that maybe a live-ball turnover leads to more options for the other team.
Re: When should NBA teams roll the dice on a 6 point swing?
It isn't a 6 point swing except if you count points against saved as somewhat equivalent to points. They aren't, of course; but I understood the potential swing he references to set up the question.
"How does the opponent's choice of a (missed) 3 have anything to do with your ensuing possession?"
This is a valid research question. It is well known that teams score better off an opponent miss in general compared to makes and other opponent possession outcomes like steals have greater expected value on the other end too. This is another sub-type. It is easier to say the prior opponent play had something to do with your team's next one if the outcome happens in say 4-7 seconds as opposed to middle or deep into the next shot clock so maybe the criteria could be tightened. Could, doesn't have to. A missed three will have a rebound, perhaps a long one, perhaps with the players spread out on the floor. It might facilitate a fast break, into a quick 3 or something else.
"How does the opponent's choice of a (missed) 3 have anything to do with your ensuing possession?"
This is a valid research question. It is well known that teams score better off an opponent miss in general compared to makes and other opponent possession outcomes like steals have greater expected value on the other end too. This is another sub-type. It is easier to say the prior opponent play had something to do with your team's next one if the outcome happens in say 4-7 seconds as opposed to middle or deep into the next shot clock so maybe the criteria could be tightened. Could, doesn't have to. A missed three will have a rebound, perhaps a long one, perhaps with the players spread out on the floor. It might facilitate a fast break, into a quick 3 or something else.
Re: When should NBA teams roll the dice on a 6 point swing?
The idea/observation came from coaches/commentators mentioning it and my experience over the years with it first hand in games. "We could have gone up 3, now we are down 3" is a line I have heard all to often from coaches and players are very aware of it. There is an emotional factor attached to it that I wanted to explore, opposition players can drop their heads to a degree, hence why I wanted to explore its effect in 4th quarters where it may influence the outcome of the game due to momentum.
Agree, I could have tightened the shot clock timing a little for "fast break 3's" only within 7 seconds or so, but I did ensure there was no break in play after the rebound to the team shooting the 3, so there is still an awareness a 6 point swing has happened even though it may have come later in the shot clock.
Agree, I could have tightened the shot clock timing a little for "fast break 3's" only within 7 seconds or so, but I did ensure there was no break in play after the rebound to the team shooting the 3, so there is still an awareness a 6 point swing has happened even though it may have come later in the shot clock.
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Jcipoletti
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Re: When should NBA teams roll the dice on a 6 point swing?
Is there a site that has tracked scoring off of makes and misses across an entire season? I tracked one D1 college team for 4 years and there were some interesting numbers that came out of that (small sample size alert always in play). In 2 of the 3 full seasons charted here http://bit.ly/29j6zeN, possessions following a made layup produced a higher PPP than misses of any kind. My presumption has been that a layup compromises the shooter defensively, whereas a missed 3 (foul line extended and above) puts the shooter behind the ball.Crow wrote:It is well known that teams score better off an opponent miss in general compared to makes....A missed three will have a rebound, perhaps a long one, perhaps with the players spread out on the floor. It might facilitate a fast break, into a quick 3 or something else.
This same D1 team, in the one season I tracked them defensively, allowed equal PPP off made layups and missed 3s - 1.07 in both cases. There is a little more on that here http://bit.ly/29DthND
I'd like to do a full season study across D1 to see if the possession origin discrepancies hold over ~1.5 million possessions. I'm an R noob though so that is on hold.
Re: When should NBA teams roll the dice on a 6 point swing?
82games had a mini-study on ppp off makes & misses and I am pretty sure I have seen other papers / articles on this though I don't have cites in hand. Might look for it later.