Current top 10 based on my draft model. My model is based on comparing players stats to recent all-star PGs plus adjustment for quantifiable factors such as wingspan, height and shooting.
1. PG Lonzo Ball - In my model he is #1 by a lot. He is above average in literally all of steals, blocks, rebounds, assists, efficiency, turnovers compared to standout PGs when they were in college. Looking at him I have 2 concerns. One is I worry about players who put up their stats in transition too much. The NBA is a halfcourt game. Is there an argument to be made Ball is like the college QB prospect who puts up through the roof stats but in a gimmicky system? Secondly his jumpshot is probably the weirdest looking since Kevin Martin. That's before considering the wacky stage father. But I have to go with the #s here.
2. C Anzejs Pasecniks - The track record of highly productive international bigs recently has been excellent, such as Jokic, Gobert, Nurkic, Capela, Valanciunas, Porzingis, etc. Judging international draft prospects is the only context I ever find PER useful. At a high level in the ACB Pasecniks ranks 1st on his team in PER and 6th in the league. This seems phenomenal. As a skilled and athletic 7 footer I don't see a reason why he can't be the next great steal.
3. SF Jonathan Isaac - Has second best rating for NCAA players in my model and is a great fit for modern game as he has very good defensive numbers and length and projects well as a shooter. A better version of what Ingram was last year.
4. PG Markelle Fultz - An excellent combination of defensive numbers, passing, rebounding and size and is one of the most high volume scoring freshman of this era, which potentially has made him slightly overrated since volume scoring is not that predictive, but nonetheless he's not just a yay points guy considering his other stats. Not going to let it affect my rankings, but why is his team so outrageously bad? 9-20?
5. SF Dedric Lawson - The all stats, no scouts player of this draft. Posts a great all around statline of defensive numbers, rebounds, assists, scoring but athleticism and position is a concern Kyle Anderson-style. Assume a good chance he won't be in this draft.
6. PG Jawun Evans - Very strong combination of assists, steals, scoring and projects well as a shooter. Undersized PG but in a league with Isaiahs and Kembas it doesn't make sense anymore to say a prospect who would be a top 5 pick if he was 6'3 is now a write-off for being a 5'11 PG with a 6'4 wingspan.
7. SF Jayson Tatum - Very good scorer and passer for his age, projects great as a shooter, solid defender
8. PG Dennis Smith - Good shooting, passing and athleticism indicators. My model doesn't take into account athleticism unless it shows up statistically so he could be worth a higher pick than this, unless you see something wrong in his character
9. PF Mathias Lessort - Like Pasecniks the case is betting on recent history of production driven international bigs. Lessort is 1st on his team in PER on French Pro A and 6th in the league, not as dominant as Gobert and Capela were at same level, but still impressive. Note the international expected to be a top 10 pick in this class Frank Ntilikina as ranks last on his French team in PER and non top 100 in the league, but is 18 with highly rated tools. It is a good test case to see who ends up with better career, the data of recent internationals who have been good lately (which is SSS) suggests to me Lessort is the lotto pick and Frank the 2nd round flier
10. PF T.J. Leaf - Strong scoring, efficiency, passing for his age, can be a stretch 4 at next level
HM - Josh Jackson: Did not rate well in my model but as mentioned for Smith hyper athleticism may not be captured enough... Plus he did so well in a lot of categories (steal, block, rebound, assist combo) and just gets murdered by his shooting projection and turnovers, not sure what to make of that, the strengths could win out I guess. Would be hard not to take in top 10 in reality
2017 NBA Draft
Re: 2017 NBA Draft
It is too early for me to have much reaction but here are a couple comments: 1. You and draftexpress are far apart on Pasecniks. Do you feel you have adequately factored in his weaknesses? 2. How did your analysis rate Markkanen and John Collins?