Pistons

[Crow]

Instead of focusing on just on the Pistons and the list of components, one could find the set of fairly similar teams (by 4 factors, maybe other criteria like age distribution, salary structure, etc.) and look to see how these teams did in future and what changes they made along the way. Total change is a dynamic process. What set of changes produced the best dynamic change? Maybe try the set that worked best or worked best on average. Or at least consider that data along with what you come up with the Pistons focused analysis.

[JoshEngleman]

Pistons are in some trouble. If they waive Darrun Hilliard and renounce Baynes/Udrih/Bullock, they can give KCP just over $22m before it puts them in the tax. I assume paying the tax on this team would be a tough sell, considering they would be bringing back the same core of a team that missed the playoffs.

Maybe try to get out from Tobias Harris? Honestly, this one is tough.

[jgoldstein34]

Of course, getting out from Tobias just leaves them with a hole in their rotation. If making the playoffs is that important, they may have to accept paying the tax. I'm not convinced Pope will get quite that much ($22 million) unless the Nets offer him that deal. I think I saw somewhere that they were going after Otto Porter as the first priority, so the Pistons may be able to sneak a Pope contract through.

[JoshEngleman]

Of course, getting out from Tobias just leaves them with a hole in their rotation. If making the playoffs is that important, they may have to accept paying the tax. I'm not convinced Pope will get quite that much ($22 million) unless the Nets offer him that deal. I think I saw somewhere that they were going after Otto Porter as the first priority, so the Pistons may be able to sneak a Pope contract through.

I'm expecting KCP to get a max offer, with the Pistons countering with the 5th year with an AAV lower than the max. If they're OK with paying the tax, they're going to have to pay A LOT of tax. I feel like that will be a tough sell. Optimally, they trade Drummond, but I just don't know where he would go.

[jgoldstein34]

I would agree, the optimal decision is just a really tough sell to fans after making the playoffs in 2015-16. I doubt SVG is ready to cut bait with his "franchise" center when he's still so young, even though they probably should. Also, not sure they'd get much value back for him at this point.

[Crow]

KCP renounced, I can understand that from a value perspective. But if they were serious about keeping him as it seemed, he should have been traded earlier. Looks like bad management. Not that surprising though. Pistons have jerked around and achieved nothing in last few years.

[Dr Positivity]

I don't blame Pistons for not paying KCP 20 mil a year, but their situation is a mess. I blame mediocre drafting the most, even though they capped themselves out Detroit was never getting good FAs anyways. I also can't remember the last time Detroit had multiple 1st round picks in the same draft

[jgoldstein34]

I don't blame them, but I'd rather have KCP at $20M for next 4 years and Morris than Bradley one a one year deal when he's about to be expensive as a free agent and could leave.

[JoshEngleman]

I don't blame Pistons for not paying KCP 20 mil a year, but their situation is a mess. I blame mediocre drafting the most, even though they capped themselves out Detroit was never getting good FAs anyways. I also can't remember the last time Detroit had multiple 1st round picks in the same draft

I don't know if I would say mediocre. I'd have to do a deeper dive, but they've been solid, depending on how far back you are going. Afflalo and Stuckey are both good picks at #27 & #15 respectively. Chase Budinger was probably solid value for a mid-2nd. Jerebko went #39. Then we have Monroe, Knight, Drummond at 7/8/9. Those are all good value picks. Middleton went #39. Say what you will about KCP, but he went #8 and just got a giant free agent deal. They haven't had a top-5 pick since Darko. I think they made the most of their draft positions.

[JoshEngleman]

What exactly is the plan here? They already have $100M committed for NEXT season, and that is before dealing with Avery Bradley. In my snapshot, they're incredibly short in minutes at the 3/4/5. Some guys are going to need to dramatically bump up their role this year. Sadly, since the East is an atrocity, they might be in sniffing distance of the 8th seed. I have no idea what they should do. It should probably start with removing SVG from power.

[Warthog]

As a Pistons fan/season ticket holder, I can probably give a little better insight as to what their plan is. I think they want to give this thing one more year. Last year they were one of two teams to start training camp with no player over 30 years old. They had the 4th youngest team in the NBA averaging 25 years old. This year the average age is 25.5 and they're currently at the 3rd youngest team in the NBA. The playoffs looked promising against Cleveland the previous year.

However Reggie Jackson missed training camp and the 1st 31 games, was rushed back, and had difficulty integrating with the team after they got used to Ish Smith. Jon Leuer got worn out as a starter. Stanley Johnson played most of his minutes out of position at the 2, and was consistently in SVG's doghouse. Bullock was never healthy. SVG was too afraid to give some guys a shot (Boban, Henry Ellenson, Stanley Johnson) because of making the playoffs the previous season and trying to get back there.

Basically they took a step back, but the East got weaker. Their roster is a bit more balanced, and they have more guys who can handle the ball. They should have a healthy Reggie. I think they were surprised at Luke Kennard's readiness, and won't be afraid to let Bradley go after a year if they can't keep him. They could run it back with a little roster improvement and internal improvement and be right back in the playoff mix (not contending, but still). They have some additional monetary flexibility.

Keep in mind SVG didn't draft Pope or Drummond, so I don't think he is tied down to either (although Drummond and the owner Gores have some weird relationship). I also think he wanted to trade Reggie but with that injury there was just no market to get anything of value in return.

Don't discount that they're moving to a new stadium in downtown Detroit ; that's a much harder sell to fans if they decided to completely blow it up.

[JoshEngleman]

What's the plan if they give it one more year and they miss the playoffs again? Trade Drummond, I guess? If they don't take a step forward this year, it's going to be a long time before the Pistons are good again. Besides the Knicks, the Pistons might have the least desirable situation in the East.

[Crow]

These are quick ideas, not laboriously vetted:

Start Ish at PG, play 30 minutes.
Start Reggie J at SG, play 36 minutes total, including most of the backup PG minutes.
Bradley off the bench for all the backup SG minutes.
Galloway as filler / insurance / possible trade piece.
Trade Johnson to a gullible / hopeful GM for whatever he can bring.
More Bullock minutes, probably more Kennard minutes, along with a new wing from somewhere.
Try Ellenson more at PF.
Use Boban more. Close to 20 minutes for 20 games and see what happens.

[Nathan]

What's the plan if they give it one more year and they miss the playoffs again? Trade Drummond, I guess? If they don't take a step forward this year, it's going to be a long time before the Pistons are good again. Besides the Knicks, the Pistons might have the least desirable situation in the East.

Historically, to win a championship, a team has to either draft an MVP, acquire an MVP via trade/free agency, or be the Detroit Pistons. By that measure they're way closer to contending than most of the East