2017-18 quick observations

[Crow]

Decision-making around the Association...

[shadow]

Extremely small sample size alert obviously, but here's RAPM for playoff games only through games played on 5/5:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... ingle=true

[Mike G]

That's very cool, thanks.
Would it be much trouble to include team and minutes columns?
What about updating at the end of each round of playoffs?

[shadow]

Added team and minutes columns. Will try to update at end of each round.

[Crow]

Melo, 3rd lowest estimate. DeRozan 10th lowest. Lillard, Westbrook, Wiggins in bottom 25.

Estimates are pretty compressed.

Houston with 4 over plus 1. GSW close.

LBJ estimated in about 60th place. Weird.

[shadow]

Added an RAPM wins column. LeBron ranks 9th in that metric. The two blowout losses to Indiana obviously hurt the defensive ratings of the Cavs players quite a bit. The Cavs were outscored by a total of 40 points in that series, which was the worst point differential for any team that won a series in 7 games in the history of the NBA.

[Crow]

Yeah, a few games can really affect small sample RAPM. Thanks for explanation.

In Toronto they should look at everything. I'd trade DeRozan. Ibaka if you can.

[Crow]

Rockets were 13th of 16 in playoffs on 3pt fg%. Which is their average rank for last 3 years. For entire Harden era the rank is about 11th on average. 5th his first playoffs and 7th in his third but 10th or worse in 4 of 6 playoffs. It isn't working as hoped. Enough? Not so far. Will they re-think chucking that much even when they aren't falling? The answer appears to be a stubborn no. I guess because it is still on average better than mid-rangers. But why can't they match their regular season 3pt fg%? Better defense including simple effort I presume. Do the Rockets have enough going for them to win a title? Probably not as designed and run currently. What do they do different next time? Anything? They probably need some meaningful change.

You can't just say their 3pt shooting was "off". At least I don't think you can credibly. It is off more than it is on in playoffs.

[shadow]

Playoff RAPM updated through game 3 of Finals:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... ingle=true

[J.E.]

Playoff RAPM updated through game 3 of Finals:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... ingle=true

Durant and Green also led the 4-year (informed by regular season) playoff RAPM that I ran during round 1. The other players don't match the ranking quite as well, though
Definitely seems that these two are taking the foot off the gas during the regular season sometimes, and why wouldn't they

[Crow]

By this playoff LeBron is losing ground on defense. Slipped quite a bit since May 5. Not his greatest playoff performance by this. Far not enough. He should focus on Houston (or GSW) if he wants playoff strong teammates. Coordinate with Paul George? Why? He is often overrated or way overrated by this and other metrics & means.

Celtics lead by 18th and 22nd ranked guys. Which shouldn't have been enough to get where they got and no further. What did Irving and Hayward look like in 4 year playoff RAPM?

Favors and Ariza should be highly sought. Probably shouldn't have to give big discount though they probably will.

Ben Simmons in about 190th place. Only about 25 worse. Very low ranked amongst his teammates- 13th place. But Saric rates worse. Sixers need to look at those 2 guys real close with open eyes. As players and how used. Would be interesting to see or at least guess about the RAPM factors.

Simmons had good regular season RPM. Turnovers might have been the biggest flaw- along with no long-range shooting. Fell apart against Celtics. High turnovers, a bit less assists, less ftas, much worse shooting. Not sure what the shot defense looked like. BPM suggests the issue was more on offense. What lead creator has worked in playoffs in recent times without an outside game (beside Rondo some of the time)? Answer: Wade & Parker and that is pretty much it over last dozen years. So possible, if rest of team has enough overall greatness.

Boxscore metrics liked what Saric did in playoffs despite the lower shooting and scoring efficiency. BPM was especially gaga on both sides of the action. That versatility affecting the scores. He didn't slip that much from regular season RPM to playoff RAPM. He wasn't strong on either but he did slip. Do you pay with big? It depends what the other options are. A trade might be worth considering. It is more likely they don't than do. He is one of their better Moreyballers, offsetting Simmons' 3pt deficiency.

[shadow]

Here's playoff only RAPM for 2014 to 2018:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... ingle=true

If you want a bigger sample just let me know.

[Crow]

Thanks. Also found last year's single yr playoff RAPM. Irving good. Hayward not. Depending on who the Celtics lose in free agency, they are likely to end up only modestly better by cumulative team RAPM next season, maybe closer to even.

Was this by far LeBron's worst RAPM playoffs in last 5 years? I dunno, but good chance it was. Sorry boxscore guided narrative.

[shadow]

LeBron playoff RAPM by year (ORAPM / DRAPM / RAPM)

2014: +1.17 / +0.27 / +1.44
2015: +1.18 / +0.56 / +1.74
2016: +2.02 / +1.22 / +3.24
2017: +3.21 / +0.69 / +3.9
2018: +1.20 / -0.78 / +0.42

[Crow]

Ok, thanks. So virtually tied for lowest impact estimate. Clear lowest for DRAPM estimate.