eWins 2022

[Mike G]

The season is 60% over.

Code: Select all

e82     per36 rates    tm   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e484
17.1   Nikola Jokić   Den  .642   31.1  15.8   7.6   1.6   4.0   .8   3.37
13.7   Antetokounmpo  Mil  .599   33.2  12.4   6.1   1.1   4.1  1.6   3.06
13.1   Joel Embiid    Phl  .593   33.8  12.1   4.5   1.1   3.3  1.7   3.04
12.4   Stephen Curry  GSW  .577   29.5   5.8   6.3   1.4   3.5   .5   2.28
11.1   Jayson Tatum   Bos  .536   25.6   8.5   3.7   1.0   3.0   .8   1.93

10.9   Kevin Durant   Brk  .615   30.2   7.4   5.0    .8   3.0  1.0   2.34
10.9   LeBron James   LAL  .609   29.0   7.5   5.4   1.7   3.1  1.1   2.42
10.7   Rudy Gobert    Uta  .702   21.1  17.4   1.2    .8   2.1  2.6   2.30
10.7   Trae Young     Atl  .575   27.3   4.4   8.6   1.1   4.5   .1   1.99
10.5 Domantas Sabonis Ind  .632   20.4  13.1   4.6   1.1   3.2   .5   1.94

e82      11-20         tm   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e484
10.4   James Harden   Brk  .569   22.0   7.9   8.7   1.3   4.8   .7   1.88
10.3  Dejounte Murray SAS  .505   17.9   8.7   8.0   2.2   2.7   .4   1.94
10.2   DeMar DeRozan  Chi  .573   26.5   5.4   4.5    .8   2.3   .4   1.86
10.2   Karl-A Towns   Min  .614   25.6   9.9   3.5   1.2   3.6  1.3   2.01
9.8    Chris Paul     Phx  .571   17.0   4.9  10.2   2.1   2.7   .4   1.74

9.5   Devin Booker    Phx  .544   27.3   5.9   4.4   1.1   2.8   .4   1.94
9.5   Luka Dončić     Dal  .528   25.6   9.4   8.6   1.3   4.8   .5   2.29
9.3   Jarrett Allen   Cle  .690   22.2  12.5   2.0   1.0   2.1  1.6   1.99
9.1   Ja Morant       Mem  .562   27.5   6.8   6.7   1.2   3.8   .4   2.15
9.1  Jo. Valančiūnas  NOP  .596   20.6  14.4   2.6    .6   2.9  1.0   1.87

e82      21-30         tm   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e484
8.8  Donovan Mitchell Uta  .560   27.3   4.4   5.2   1.6   3.3   .3   1.92
8.7   Fred VanVleet   Tor  .564   19.8   4.6   6.0   1.6   2.5   .5   1.49
8.5   Zach LaVine     Chi  .600   26.5   5.4   4.1    .7   3.1   .4   1.70
8.2   Jusuf Nurkić    Por  .580   18.1  15.2   3.2   1.6   3.4   .8   1.87
8.2   Jimmy Butler    Mia  .580   24.0   7.0   6.4   2.5   2.2   .5   2.27

8.2  Shai G-Alexander OKC  .521   22.0   4.7   5.2   1.2   2.6   .9   1.55
8.1   LaMelo Ball     Cha  .535   19.1   8.1   7.3   1.7   3.6   .5   1.73
8.1   Julius Randle   NYK  .500   17.5  10.4   4.9    .8   3.7   .6   1.40
8.1   Nikola Vučević  Chi  .506   15.8  12.7   3.5   1.2   2.0  1.3   1.66
8.0   Miles Bridges   Cha  .581   18.9   7.3   3.0   1.1   1.9   .9   1.37

e82      31-41         tm   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e484
8.0   Darius Garland  Cle  .570   21.9   3.5   8.1   1.4   3.9   .1   1.53
7.9   Christian Wood  Hou  .559   17.9  12.4   2.2    .9   2.2  1.1   1.60
7.7 Russell Westbrook LAL  .504   17.1   8.1   6.9   1.2   4.4   .3   1.29
7.7  Anthony Edwards  Min  .561   22.0   5.3   3.4   1.8   3.1   .8   1.45
7.6   Jaylen Brown    Bos  .556   26.1   7.2   3.1   1.2   3.2   .4   1.79

7.4   John Collins    Atl  .620   19.3   9.3   2.0    .7   1.3  1.4   1.52
7.1   Bradley Beal    Was  .536   21.9   4.9   5.8   1.0   3.5   .4   1.43
7.1   Kr. Porziņģis   Dal  .553   24.3   9.9   2.4   1.0   2.0  2.2   2.06
7.1   Clint Capela    Atl  .560   13.1  16.1   1.5   1.0    .7  1.9   1.71
7.1   Tobias Harris   Phl  .552   19.2   7.9   3.6    .7   1.8   .7   1.45
7.1   Andrew Wiggins  GSW  .574   22.8   5.0   2.3   1.0   1.8   .7   1.43

#42-50: Brunson, Siakam, Middleton, A Davis, J Jackson Jr, Bane, Poeltl, Jrue Holiday, Ingram
51-60: Kuzma, Robt Williams, Ayton, Portis, Mobley, Love, Carter Jr, Harrell, Conley, Bojan B
https://www.basketball-reference.com/le ... otals.html

[Mike G]

I read that Joel Embiid is now the Vegas betting favorite to win MVP this year.
An article at ESPN lists a chronology of the itinerant favorite -- between 5 different players, none of whom has been the incumbent, The Joker.
https://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/331 ... te-win-mvp
Gathering available summary stats, here are 11 players who rank in the Top 5 in at least one of these 7 categories.
xyz is the 7th root of the product of the 7 rates. Win Shares and VORP are extrapolated to 82 team games.
Wxyz multiplies that number by team Win%*2

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xyz    Wxyz    mvp    tm   tmW%    e82   e484    PER   ws82  ws48   BPM   v82
7.67   8.76   Jokić   Den  .571   17.1   3.37   33.3   15.7  .310  14.6  10.2
6.18   7.37  Giannis  Mil  .596   13.7   3.06   30.9   12.0  .266  10.2   6.6
4.51   7.36   C Paul  Phx  .816    9.8   1.74   21.1   12.4  .221   5.3   5.0
5.90   7.32   Embiid  Phl  .620   13.1   3.04   31.4   11.2  .262   9.3   5.7
4.81   7.16   Curry   GSW  .745   12.4   2.28   21.8   10.5  .190   6.5   5.6

4.84   6.06   Butler  Mia  .627    8.2   2.27   26.2    9.8  .266   8.5   4.5
4.92   5.83   Durant  Brk  .592   10.9   2.34   26.1    9.7  .211   7.4   5.2
4.94   5.81   Gobert  Uta  .588   10.7   2.30   25.7   12.5  .274   5.3   4.0
4.33   5.27  J Allen  Cle  .608    9.3   1.99   23.0   11.3  .239   4.1   3.5
5.06   4.76   LeBron  LAL  .471   10.9   2.42   27.3    9.2  .208   8.6   5.6
3.72   3.86   Tatum   Bos  .519   11.1   1.93   20.2    7.6  .130   3.3   3.8

The b-r.com MVP Tracker contains Harden and Morant but not Butler, Allen, or Tatum. The top 5 are the same as here.
https://www.basketball-reference.com/friv/mvp.html
Jokic 47%, Giannis 14, Embiid 11, Paul 8.4, Curry and Durant 5, others 2-3
"Players must have played in at least 70% of the league-wide average for team games to qualify."
Both Durant and LeBron have played in 36 games, or 72% of league-avg 50.
https://www.basketball-reference.com/le ... anced.html

[Mike G]

Season 81.5% complete.

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e82     per36 rates    tm   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e484
16.7   Nikola Jokić   Den  .642   31.2  15.8   7.5   1.5   4.2   .9   3.29
14.7   Antetokounmpo  Mil  .614   34.0  12.7   5.6   1.2   3.7  1.6   3.15
14.1   Joel Embiid    Phl  .593   34.3  12.5   4.2   1.1   3.3  1.6   3.06
12.4   Jayson Tatum   Bos  .555   28.0   8.2   3.8   1.0   2.9   .7   2.12
11.6   Luka Dončić    Dal  .550   28.8   9.8   7.8   1.3   4.7   .6   2.51

11.5   Stephen Curry  GSW  .590   28.7   5.7   5.8   1.3   3.4   .4   2.11
11.3   Karl-A Towns   Min  .624   27.0  10.5   3.5   1.1   3.4  1.3   2.18
11.0   DeMar DeRozan  Chi  .581   27.3   5.7   4.2   1.0   2.4   .3   1.91
10.7   LeBron James   LAL  .610   29.3   7.8   5.0   1.5   3.4  1.0   2.34
10.6   Trae Young     Atl  .580   27.5   4.1   8.1   1.0   4.2   .1   1.93

e82     11-20          tm   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e484
10.2  Dejounte Murray SAS  .521   19.0   8.6   7.6   2.2   2.7   .3   1.96
9.9   Ja Morant       Mem  .566   29.6   6.4   6.0   1.1   3.8   .4   2.20
9.8   Rudy Gobert     Uta  .705   21.5  17.4   1.1    .7   2.1  2.6   2.27
9.4  Domantas Sabonis Sac  .584   17.9  14.3   5.2    .8   4.0   .3   1.71
9.3   Devin Booker    Phx  .553   27.1   5.5   4.2   1.2   2.6   .5   1.90

9.3   Jarrett Allen   Cle  .683   22.3  12.5   1.6   1.0   1.9  1.5   1.98
9.1  Donovan Mitchell Uta  .568   27.9   4.6   5.2   1.6   3.3   .2   1.95
8.8   Julius Randle   NYK  .508   19.0  10.4   4.7    .8   3.6   .6   1.50
8.8  Jo. Valančiūnas  NOP  .598   20.9  14.2   2.4    .6   3.0  1.0   1.84
8.6   Nikola Vučević  Chi  .534   17.4  12.8   3.1   1.1   2.2  1.2   1.70

e82     21-30          tm   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e484
8.4   James Harden    Phl  .635   25.4   7.6  10.1   1.3   3.1   .0   2.42
8.2   Jimmy Butler    Mia  .567   23.5   7.0   5.4   2.2   2.3   .6   2.06
8.2   Chris Paul      Phx  .570   17.0   4.9   9.9   2.0   2.7   .3   1.68
8.2   Kevin Durant    Brk  .617   29.5   7.3   4.7    .8   3.2  1.0   2.20
7.9   LaMelo Ball     Cha  .532   19.4   7.6   6.7   1.7   3.7   .5   1.60

7.8   Jaylen Brown    Bos  .554   26.0   6.7   3.3   1.2   3.1   .3   1.75
7.8   Pascal Siakam   Tor  .543   19.5   8.3   4.2   1.2   2.6   .6   1.50
7.6   Zach LaVine     Chi  .596   25.3   5.3   3.8    .6   2.9   .4   1.56
7.6   Christian Wood  Hou  .571   18.3  12.0   2.1   1.0   2.1  1.2   1.59
7.5   Miles Bridges   Cha  .573   18.5   6.9   3.0   1.0   2.0   .9   1.26

e82     31-40-         tm   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e484
7.3  Shai G-Alexander OKC  .536   23.1   4.9   5.1   1.3   3.0   .8   1.60
7.3   Darius Garland  Cle  .582   23.4   3.6   7.6   1.4   4.2   .1   1.56
7.3   Jusuf Nurkić    Por  .574   17.9  14.8   3.0   1.4   3.4   .8   1.75
7.3   Fred VanVleet   Tor  .562   19.6   4.5   5.5   1.5   2.6   .5   1.37
7.3   Bam Adebayo     Mia  .578   21.8  12.1   3.5   1.9   3.1   .9   2.03

7.0   Clint Capela    Atl  .583   13.4  16.3   1.4    .9    .8  1.8   1.68
7.0   Deandre Ayton   Phx  .655   24.2  12.2   1.5    .9   2.0  1.0   2.02
7.0  Robert Williams  Bos  .723   16.1  12.0   2.2   1.2   1.4  2.8   1.68
6.9   Kyle Kuzma      Was  .545   17.5   9.5   3.0    .7   2.8  1.0   1.27
6.9  Khris Middleton  Mil  .574   22.3   6.0   5.1   1.2   3.3   .3   1.52

6.9   Bobby Portis    Mil  .583   19.4  11.6   1.3   1.0   1.8  1.0   1.60
6.9   Jrue Holiday    Mil  .589   19.9   5.1   6.2   1.6   3.1   .5   1.48

#43-50: Bane, Ingram, A Davis, Jaren Jackson, Brunson, W Carter Jr, Tobias, Westbrook
51-60: Rozier, Poeltl, A Edwards, J Collins, Mobley, A Wiggins, Love, Fox, Bojan, Maxey

[Crow]

Randle 18th here, 164 on EPM, 241 on DRIP, 270 on DARKO...

+1 to -4 on other metrics.

[Mike G]

So is Thibs stupid, or crazy, or both? -- to play him so much.
Randle is top scorer, #2 rebounder, top Assist rate (other than Rose) on the team. Pretty much indispensable, on a team that lacks a lot.

[Crow]

It is no surprise to me that Knicks are a sub .500 team with Randle as #1 in big minutes.

To play him less, the rest of the design and / or rest of actual lineup performance would probably have to be different if Toppin got extra minutes because he hasn't been rebounding or passing much. And all 10 of Toppin's most used lineups work / are positive anyways, especially playing with Robinson or Gibson. Others pick up parts of Randle's roles / production. Toppin takes scoring, others rebounding and passing.

So Thibs is stubborn and probably unwise not to use Toppin more and for other reasons.

Barrett and Reddish to date have been very ineffective at PF.

They could use some other players (frontline and otherwise) but they could do better with less reliance on Randle.

Toppin & Gibson has been amazing in almost 300 minutes test. If they were focused on this season results they should have used that way more. Similar but somewhat lesser with the more future oriented Toppin with Robinson.

Toppin with Randle has barely been tried but is 5pts / 100p better than Randle without Toppin. That should have been tried more and still should.

Toppin - Sims has been bad in first 100 minutes but now is an ok time to test further.

Toppin - Noel is basically the only right way to play Noel.


Ideally, I'd want to change Knicks ownership, management, Head Coach, lineup management process / control / design, probably analytics department.

As said before, by lineup data, the core should be Burks - Quickley - Toppin. Trading Burks was a bad idea that thankfully didn't happen.

It appears Randle against bench units is generally good. Would want to study more, but I'd emphasize that with the rotation.

With more time, incentive and the powers that be listening, I'd look at Randle effectiveness by stint minute, quarter and running game minutes to try to fine tune use.

I'd look closer and usage / efficiency data too. Probably would want him dialed back to 25% usage or less.

Teams continually create or allow creation of boxscore stars when they should pay more attention to overall impact and team stats with.

Coaches, organizations and teammates should tell "stars" they work for them, not the other way around.

[Mike G]

After last season's startling improvement, almost all Knicks suffer across the board reductions in productivity this year.
Mitchell Robinson is the big exception, RJ Barrett the only other improver.

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NY Knicks           2021-22 per 36 rates             2020-21 per 36 rates
eW+     per36    Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   e484    Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   e484
+.93   Robinson .711   14.8  13.0    .6   1.47   .632   12.3  10.6    .7   1.17
+.47   Barrett  .506   18.8   6.4   2.7   1.08   .528   17.4   5.9   2.9    .96
+.03   Reddish  .562   13.6   3.2   1.3    .51   .480   11.5   5.1   1.5    .45
-.04   Toppin   .569   15.5   7.7   1.7    .92   .570   14.5   7.5   1.5    .94
-.31   Rose     .537   15.9   4.2   4.9   1.02   .544   20.0   3.7   5.5   1.26
-.39   Walker   .531   15.9   4.4   4.5    .98   .552   19.5   4.6   4.6   1.18

-.44   Noel     .567    5.3   9.0   1.3    .49   .628    8.5   9.5   1.0    .87
-.95   Fournier .551   17.2   3.5   2.0    .81   .590   19.3   3.6   3.3   1.05
-1.00  Gibson   .601    7.9   8.3   1.0    .43   .650   11.0   9.8   1.3   1.05
-1.14  Burks    .536   13.5   6.1   3.2    .92   .557   18.3   6.6   2.9   1.23
-1.39  Randle   .508   19.0  10.4   4.7   1.50   .557   23.0   9.7   5.3   1.79
-1.56  Quickley .524   14.3   4.1   4.0    .73   .548   21.5   4.0   3.5   1.27

Randle's minutes are down from 38 to 35, in spite of the team going with no point guard for much of the season. They've had Alec Burks running the point, which he'd done for 7% of his career minutes.
Roughly half the team has dropped of as much or more than Randle has.

[Mike G]

The mvp race according to b-r.com and stats is actually competitive. It had looked like another Joker runaway.
Hype free:

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Prob%   mvp    Tm   TmW%    Min    PER    WS   ws/48   BPM  vorp
39.2   Jokic   Den  .589   2185   32.5   13.5  .297   13.8   8.7
28.1   Giannis Mil  .625   1970   32.2   11.9  .289   11.1   6.6
11.7   Embiid  Phl  .625   1974   31.1   10.5  .255    9.4   5.7
6.6    Paul    Phx  .808   1916   20.8    8.4  .211    5.3   3.6
2.6    Doncic  Dal  .616   1996   24.1    5.9  .143    7.8   4.9

https://www.basketball-reference.com/friv/mvp.html
Suns keep winning without Chris Paul, which ironically keeps his name in the running.
Luka is included to show how far behind he (and everyone else) is; tied for 5th: Harden, Gobert, Ja, Booker

[Mike G]

Final numbers

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eWin    per36 rates    tm   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e484
17.0   Nikola Jokić   Den  .649   31.5  15.4   7.0   1.6   4.1   .9   3.30
14.8   Joel Embiid    Phl  .599   34.2  12.7   3.9   1.2   3.4  1.6   3.10
14.2   Antetokounmpo  Mil  .615   33.3  12.6   5.2   1.1   3.6  1.5   3.09
12.6   Jayson Tatum   Bos  .569   28.7   8.1   3.9   1.1   2.9   .7   2.22
12.2   Luka Dončić    Dal  .561   29.5   9.5   7.8   1.3   4.6   .6   2.55

11.2   Karl-A Towns   Min  .628   26.9  10.5   3.2   1.1   3.3  1.2   2.17
10.9   Trae Young     Atl  .592   28.4   3.9   8.2   1.0   4.2   .1   1.97
10.4  DeMar DeRozan   Chi  .578   26.5   5.3   3.9    .9   2.4   .3   1.81
10.0   Rudy Gobert    Uta  .706   21.1  17.1   1.1    .7   2.0  2.4   2.26
9.9    LeBron James   LAL  .610   29.0   7.8   4.8   1.3   3.4  1.0   2.29

eWin    11-20          tm   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e484
9.8   Devin Booker    Phx  .568   28.4   5.2   4.1   1.1   2.5   .4   2.01
9.6   Kevin Durant    Brk  .623   30.0   7.2   5.0    .9   3.4   .9   2.26
9.6   Stephen Curry   GSW  .594   28.5   5.6   5.7   1.3   3.4   .4   2.09
9.6  Dejounte Murray  SAS  .527   19.4   8.3   7.4   2.1   2.8   .4   1.94
9.0  Donovan Mitchell Uta  .565   27.6   4.7   5.0   1.5   3.2   .2   1.91

9.0   Pascal Siakam   Tor  .555   21.1   8.3   4.3   1.2   2.6   .6   1.67
8.9 Jonas Valančiūnas NOP  .607   21.2  14.3   2.5    .6   2.9  1.0   1.91
8.6   Jaylen Brown    Bos  .566   26.8   6.6   3.3   1.2   2.9   .3   1.87
8.5   James Harden   BkPhl .569   20.8   7.5   8.2   1.2   4.3   .5   1.70
8.4   Ja Morant       Mem  .565   29.1   6.3   5.9   1.1   3.8   .4   2.14

eWin    21-30          tm   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e484
8.2   LaMelo Ball     Cha  .548   20.1   7.2   6.7   1.7   3.7   .5   1.63
8.2   Nikola Vučević  Chi  .530   17.0  12.4   2.8   1.1   2.1  1.1   1.63
8.1   Jimmy Butler    Mia  .577   23.5   6.6   5.2   2.0   2.3   .5   2.01
8.0 Domantas Sabonis InSac .625   19.5  13.1   4.3   1.0   3.3   .5   1.81
8.0   Miles Bridges   Cha  .584   19.4   6.9   3.0    .9   1.9   .9   1.35

7.9   Bam Adebayo     Mia  .594   22.3  11.8   3.3   1.8   3.0   .9   2.07
7.7   Julius Randle   NYK  .500   18.6  10.3   4.7    .8   3.5   .6   1.44
7.5   Darius Garland  Cle  .569   22.4   3.4   7.4   1.4   3.7   .1   1.49
7.4   Zach LaVine     Chi  .595   24.7   4.9   3.8    .7   2.7   .4   1.52
7.4   Clint Capela    Atl  .595   14.0  15.7   1.3   1.0    .8  1.7   1.73

eWin    31-40          tm   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e484
7.3   Jarrett Allen   Cle  .683   21.6  12.3   1.6    .9   1.9  1.5   1.94
7.3   Deandre Ayton   Phx  .649   23.8  12.3   1.4    .8   1.9   .9   2.04
7.1   Christian Wood  Hou  .583   18.8  11.8   2.1   1.0   2.2  1.1   1.64
7.0   Chris Paul      Phx  .572   16.5   4.7   9.7   1.9   2.6   .3   1.57
7.0   Desmond Bane    Mem  .587   22.1   5.4   2.7   1.2   1.8   .5   1.48

6.7   Kr. Porziņģis  HuWas .566   25.0  10.2   2.5   1.0   2.0  2.1   2.18
6.6  Shai G-Alexander OKC  .546   23.5   4.9   5.0   1.3   2.9   .9   1.64
6.6   Fred VanVleet   Tor  .546   18.6   4.4   5.4   1.6   2.5   .5   1.29
6.6  Anthony Edwards  Min  .553   20.4   5.0   3.3   1.6   2.8   .7   1.28
6.6   Jalen Brunson   Dal  .576   19.0   4.5   4.7   1.0   1.8   .0   1.25

eWin    41-50          tm   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e484
6.6   Terry Rozier    Cha  .561   18.8   4.5   3.8   1.3   1.4   .4   1.28
6.6   Jrue Holiday    Mil  .587   19.5   4.9   6.1   1.7   3.0   .5   1.43
6.4   Jordan Poole    GSW  .590   23.4   4.1   4.1    .9   2.9   .4   1.36
6.4   Tobias Harris   Phl  .560   17.6   7.1   3.1    .6   1.7   .6   1.20
6.4  Khris Middleton  Mil  .568   21.2   6.0   5.0   1.2   3.2   .3   1.43

6.4  Robert Williams  Bos  .735   16.0  11.8   2.1   1.2   1.3  2.7   1.69
6.2   Bobby Portis    Mil  .567   17.6  11.5   1.3    .9   1.6   .9   1.48
6.2   Jaren Jackson   Mem  .526   19.7   7.8   1.2   1.0   2.2  3.0   1.41
6.2   Kevin Love      Cle  .585   21.6  11.3   2.8    .6   2.0   .4   1.79
6.2   Jakob Poeltl    SAS  .604   16.7  11.2   2.7    .8   2.0  2.2   1.51

eWin    51-60          tm   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e484
6.2  Ty. Haliburton  SaInd .590   14.8   4.2   6.6   1.9   2.7   .7   1.11
6.1   Tyler Herro     Mia  .555   22.2   5.7   3.8    .8   2.9   .1   1.36
6.1   CJ McCollum    PorNO .551   20.6   4.7   4.3   1.1   2.2   .4   1.37
6.0 Russell Westbrook LAL  .503   16.2   7.6   5.9   1.0   4.0   .3   1.07
6.0   Wendell Carter  Orl  .591   17.8  12.1   2.7    .8   2.3   .8   1.55

5.9   Tyrese Maxey    Phl  .586   18.4   3.3   3.8    .7   1.2   .4   1.07
5.9   Scottie Barnes  Tor  .545   15.0   7.9   3.0   1.1   1.9   .8   1.08
5.8   Evan Mobley     Cle  .541   15.7   9.1   2.3    .9   2.1  1.8   1.20
5.8   Brandon Ingram  NOP  .545   22.0   6.5   4.9    .6   2.9   .5   1.49
5.8   Andrew Wiggins  GSW  .553   19.6   5.1   2.2   1.1   1.7   .8   1.19

https://www.basketball-reference.com/le ... otals.html

[Crow]

Will Bridges and Brunson get paid commensurate to these ranks?

[DarkStar48]

Will Bridges and Brunson get paid commensurate to these ranks?

It depends.

For Bridges, CHA had offered him a 4-year $60M extension before this season, which was still probably a ~$22M overpay given his production and progression that far. He goes into restricted free agency this offseason. Obviously, he improved dramatically this year, and most of the analysis I have seen has him as a 5-year ~$150M guy. However, he apparently wants a full max contract of $173M, which would be ~$23M more that CHA wants.

The Brunson thing mostly depends on what he wants to do. I think the market for him is active enough that if he does go into unrestricted free agency, he will probably get full market price plus maybe a little premium with another team. He has said that he really wants to stay in DAL. With Luka’s super-max kicking in next season, Bertan’s and Dinwiddie contracts and Finney-Smith’s extension, DAL is going to be limited in how much they can offer him. If familiarity/contentment is the most important thing to him, he will probably have to leave significant money on the table to stay with the Mavs.

[Crow]

DARKO has both projected at about +1. That is a tricky level to decide what to pay or if to move on.

Bridges estimated rate of improvement has rapidly slowed. Brunson's estimate has been in decline all season.

I am not sure what I'd offer either from any team but I am not super excited about paying either huge.