The more detail you know or think you know, the greater temptation probably to alter lineups seeking edge.
People probably think they know a lot from the last 5-10 plays but they are probably on average only about half right. Tiny samples have lots of randomness (favorable and not).
'22-23 Commentary
Re: '22-23 Commentary
Pacers now 1-7 recently. Worse win% than the 3-16 before All-Star break but not as long. That's a lot of losing for a team "with potential".
Re: '22-23 Commentary
Mavs with just over 50% chance to make play-in according to BRef. Under 20% of making playoffs.
Re: '22-23 Commentary
Hardy has shot well in recent months. Doesn't do a whole lot else so the BPM is still weak, not much above replacement level.
Kidd / Mavs have used him in close to 200 lineups in his 600 plus minutes. No lineup used 1 minute per game played and only 1 over 30 seconds. Good with much of bench and Irving. With Doncic, very mild positive. I'd try to find a more defined usage pattern next season.
Kidd / Mavs have used him in close to 200 lineups in his 600 plus minutes. No lineup used 1 minute per game played and only 1 over 30 seconds. Good with much of bench and Irving. With Doncic, very mild positive. I'd try to find a more defined usage pattern next season.
Re: '22-23 Commentary
Thunder, 780 lineups used so far. Spurs 909. Spurs may not quite make it to 1000 but there is a decent chance. 900 or 800 is plenty rando / suboptimal for performance and learning. 900 so far means about 12 brand new, never before used lineups per game throughout the season.
5 other teams over 600 but less than 725. The lowest are a bit below 300 lineups used.
Spurs just overtook Thunder for 29th on attendance. Could change again but Thunder may stay last. Down from 27th last season.
5 other teams over 600 but less than 725. The lowest are a bit below 300 lineups used.
Spurs just overtook Thunder for 29th on attendance. Could change again but Thunder may stay last. Down from 27th last season.
Re: '22-23 Commentary
Celtics at #2 may get Heat in first round. 2-2 in regular season. #1 probably gets Hawks. Celtics were 2-0 against them.
Re: '22-23 Commentary
A very average team will have a minutes qualified +3 or better on BPM, a qualified +2 or better, a +1 or better and 1 non-minutes qualified at one of these levels. Good teams will have guys higher than these minimum performance levels or more of them or both.
Nuggets have the first 3 but not a 4th. All their superiority over average by BPM is entirely based on Jokic's level.
Celtics exceed at all of the first 4 and have 3 more. So do Griz.
Bucks have all 4 and exceed on first 3 but have no more.
So 2 with great depth, 2 with just average depth but a really great player (far over +6 BPM).
The last 7 champions have averaged 1.3 really great players and 5.7 total over +1. 2016-17 Warriors and 2019-20 Lakers had 2 really greats. Only last season's Warriors missed on the qualifying best player (Curry at just +5.8).
Celtics and Griz barely achieve on best player but have the depth. Bucks and Nuggets clearly miss on quality depth. Some concern for all.
Only 2019-20 Lakers did not meet both criteria of a great player and a bare minimum of 4 qualifiers over +1 (had 3).
Quality out to 7th or 9th man may matter a bit but has not been reviewed.
Nuggets have the first 3 but not a 4th. All their superiority over average by BPM is entirely based on Jokic's level.
Celtics exceed at all of the first 4 and have 3 more. So do Griz.
Bucks have all 4 and exceed on first 3 but have no more.
So 2 with great depth, 2 with just average depth but a really great player (far over +6 BPM).
The last 7 champions have averaged 1.3 really great players and 5.7 total over +1. 2016-17 Warriors and 2019-20 Lakers had 2 really greats. Only last season's Warriors missed on the qualifying best player (Curry at just +5.8).
Celtics and Griz barely achieve on best player but have the depth. Bucks and Nuggets clearly miss on quality depth. Some concern for all.
Only 2019-20 Lakers did not meet both criteria of a great player and a bare minimum of 4 qualifiers over +1 (had 3).
Quality out to 7th or 9th man may matter a bit but has not been reviewed.
Re: '22-23 Commentary
Wizards lead most of way but lose the 4th quarter big for the L. 6 for 29 from Avdija and J Davis overwhelms Kispert's career game. Analyze what went wrong with roster, coaching and analysis and try again next season.
Re: '22-23 Commentary
Popovich used 16 brand new lineups last game. If he averages that over the next 4 games, he will break the 1000 lineups in a season barrier. An incredibly dubious achievement.
Re: '22-23 Commentary
17 of 20 most used Pistons lineups are negative for 2nd year in row. Was 60-65% negative in 2 years before that.
Seems like they need different design, personnel, management, advice,,,
5 most used Bogdanovic pairs were all bad but they re-signed him, held on to him.
19 of 20 most used pairs overall negative.
1107 quads used. Yfy?
Hayes - Burks - Bey - Duren was the immediately obvious quad to check from pair data. +32 / 48 min... in 49 minutes of test. 75th most used! F! Follow the numbers that work til they don't!
82% of 50 most used quads negative! 95% of the 20 most used negative! Stop trying at least the horrible!
Seems like they need different design, personnel, management, advice,,,
5 most used Bogdanovic pairs were all bad but they re-signed him, held on to him.
19 of 20 most used pairs overall negative.
1107 quads used. Yfy?
Hayes - Burks - Bey - Duren was the immediately obvious quad to check from pair data. +32 / 48 min... in 49 minutes of test. 75th most used! F! Follow the numbers that work til they don't!
82% of 50 most used quads negative! 95% of the 20 most used negative! Stop trying at least the horrible!
Re: '22-23 Commentary
Pistons under Troy Weaver: 59W-175L.
Pistons under D Casey: 79W-221L.
Pistons under D Casey: 79W-221L.
Re: '22-23 Commentary
Mavs not in top 10 in West.
Biggest / strong Irving lineup only used 3.5 minutes per game. 2nd biggest was a loser. Biggest quad over 10 minutes but could / should have been over 20 min / gm.
Bottom 1/3rd on all defensive factors and probably worse after trade.
Elite on 3 offensive factors and 2 of 3 Moreyball components but dead last in offensive rebounding and bottom 1/3rd on shots at rim.
-3 on actual wins - expected.
Maximum of 8 current players under contract for next season at this time. 2-3 starters may not return along with former starters.
Mavs were oldest team to not make post-season.
Doncic has missed 17.5% of career games.
Biggest / strong Irving lineup only used 3.5 minutes per game. 2nd biggest was a loser. Biggest quad over 10 minutes but could / should have been over 20 min / gm.
Bottom 1/3rd on all defensive factors and probably worse after trade.
Elite on 3 offensive factors and 2 of 3 Moreyball components but dead last in offensive rebounding and bottom 1/3rd on shots at rim.
-3 on actual wins - expected.
Maximum of 8 current players under contract for next season at this time. 2-3 starters may not return along with former starters.
Mavs were oldest team to not make post-season.
Doncic has missed 17.5% of career games.
Re: '22-23 Commentary
Julian Champagnie, over 20 pts in 3 of last 4 games. RFA this summer I believe, unless Spurs act today or tomorrow.
Re: '22-23 Commentary
Spurs at 976 lineups with 1 to play. So they are very unlikely to hit 100. But 985 ish will be darn close and draws the same reaction from me.
Update: 985 it is. An average of 12 brand new lineups EVERY GAME for the season.
Update: 985 it is. An average of 12 brand new lineups EVERY GAME for the season.
Re: '22-23 Commentary
Last day of regular season.
Average 3pta per game is down 1 from last season. The long upward streak is broken, temporarily or long-term?
After two years of relatively low ftas, they are up again.
Highest efg% and offensive efficiency ever and by pretty big margins.
Average 3pta per game is down 1 from last season. The long upward streak is broken, temporarily or long-term?
After two years of relatively low ftas, they are up again.
Highest efg% and offensive efficiency ever and by pretty big margins.