Inquiries into stats and comparative detail

[Crow]

Heat got off to hot start but ended in 10th seed that nobody else was anywhere close to or wanted.

Herro dead last on raw team +/- on court and next to last for on / off.

[Crow]

Contender spending patterns by quality tier and VORP return:

https://x.com/bballstrategy/status/2046 ... 99511?s=20

[Mike G]

In the regular season, team margin-of-victory (mov) can be estimated by advantages in TS%, Reb/G, and TO/G.
Margins in these 3 quantities are (tm-opp) TS% and Reb/G, (opp-tm) TO/G.

Code: Select all

factor:    135    .78   1.33
stat diff: TS%    Reb    TO

Example: Atlanta team and opponent averages.

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pts/G  oPt/G     TS%  oTS%     Reb  oReb    TO/G   oTO
118.0  115.6    .577  .574    43.4  45.1    14.2  16.1

Margins are therefore:

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mov    TS%    Reb    TO
2.4   .003   -1.7   1.9

Doing this for every team, multiplying these margins by the factors shown above, I get an avg error of 0.58 pts/G.
Errors are probably mostly due to incomplete counting of team rebounds; also unequal # of possessions, techs, jumps, etc.
In any case, I split each error into thirds and added it to the team expected MOV to come up with a list of suggested MOV-points added via each stat. Which is to say, team strengths and weaknesses.
Atlanta wins on turnovers.

Code: Select all

mov    tm     TS%    Reb    TO
11.    OKC    6.4    -.9    5.5
8.3    SAS    5.1    3.6    -.5
8.1    Det    2.4    3.7    2.1
7.7    Bos    3.6    4.0     .1
6.3    NYK    1.7    3.8     .8
5.2    Hou    1.5    6.5   -2.8
5.1    Den    5.3    1.1   -1.3
4.8    Cha    2.4    5.7   -3.2
4.1    Cle    1.8     .9    1.4
3.3    Min    3.0     .2     .2

mov    tm     TS%    Reb    TO
2.8    Tor     .2    -.6    3.2
2.4    Atl     .6   -1.0    2.8
2.3    Mia     .4     .0    1.9
1.8    LAL    2.2    -.3    -.1
1.5    Phx   -1.0    -.2    2.6
1.1    LAC    2.7   -1.4    -.1
.6     Orl    -.8     .3    1.2
-.2    Phl   -1.0   -1.4    2.2
-.3    Por    -.9    2.6   -2.0
-.6    GSW    -.1   -1.1     .7

mov     tm    TS%    Reb    TO
-4.5   NOP   -3.0   -1.7     .2
-5.2   Chi    -.9    -.8   -3.4
-5.5   Dal   -2.0   -1.7   -1.7
-6.0   Mem   -3.2   -3.5     .7
-6.2   Mil    -.4   -2.9   -2.9
-8.0   Ind   -3.0   -3.6   -1.3
-8.4   Uta   -5.1   -1.7   -1.5
-9.9   Brk   -5.8   -2.9   -1.3
-10.0  Sac   -6.8   -2.0   -1.1
-11.9  Was   -4.6   -4.7   -2.6

Aside of Charlotte and their penchant for blowout wins, Lakers and their blowout losses, we see 3 starkly contrasting tiers of solid playoff teams, play-in teams, and lottery teams.
Detroit with the best weakest stat.

[Crow]

Active Coach win rates;

https://x.com/bballstrategy/status/2048 ... 91416?s=20

[Crow]

Regular season team rankings for elite 8:

https://x.com/bballstrategy/status/2051 ... 80282?s=20

[Crow]

In recent years, Sixers have had issues in varying intensity with shooting, turnovers, rebounding and fouling. This season and playoffs, perimeter shooting and rebounding were the major issues.

[Crow]

Pay vs performance value returns for high salary, older players:

https://x.com/bballstrategy/status/2054 ... 91418?s=20

[Crow]

2 of the 3 highest rated primary ballhandlers by Darko are still playing- SGA and Mitchell. Then Harden and Brunson make 4 of top 11. Then Jalen Williams at 19. Fox at 20. Ajay Mitchell at 30.

Thunder and Cavs are notable for having multiples.

Having a good to great primary ballhandler may be a near necessity but it is certainly not a guarantee of deep playoffs. 23 of the top 30 aren't playing in the conference finals and more will get eliminated.



Only 18 playoff lineups over 50 minutes. 5 have a top 30 primary ballhandler. 4 positive in top 9, 1 slight negative. All for the conference finalists (need the minutes).

Fox / Spurs with the by far best at +30 / 100p. Harden / Mitchell / Cavs at +12. SGA / Thunder at under +5. Brunson / Knicks at under +2.




7 of 30 best big men by Darko are still playing. 5 in top 10. Thunder and Cavs again with multiples. Every conference finalists had at least one of each, top primary ballhandler and big.

J Murray not a top 30 primary ballhandler by CraftedNBA. Ayton not a top 30 big. Clippers had both. Curry doesn't classify as primary ballhandler. Edwarda dies to go along Gobert. Durant with Sengun or Adams would be such a pair. Celtics lack a top 30 big.

Only 8 of 18 biggest minute playoff lineups have a top 30 big. All 4 conference finalists have one (Cavs 2) but Towns rated 25th best big by Darko.

Only 5 top 30 guys in between primary ballhandler and big are still playing. Thunder have 4 of them. Thunder and,Knicks are only conference finalists with at least 1 of each of the 3 type groups.

[Crow]

Portland TrailBlazers since '21-22 poor season:

Offensive efficiency improved modestly from 27th to 20th.Dwfensive efficiency from 30th to 14th, almost all before the new Coach and other staff moves.

Pace was middle but rose to 10th this season.

3pt fg% remains well below average. Frequency was way up in '24-25 but fell to slightly below average this past season.

Offensive gain mainly from elite offensive rebounding. Already gained before this season. Defensive gain mainly from much better shot defense and less fouling. These gains were split between before last season and last season.

Moving from 30th on SRS to 19th in 4 seasons is something but not that much. 19th to 10-12th will be much harder.