2026 Finals: Knicks vs Spurs

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Mike G
Posts: 6477
Joined: Fri Apr 15, 2011 12:02 am
Location: Asheville, NC

2026 Finals: Knicks vs Spurs

Post by Mike G »

Previews! Round by round summaries to date in eWins/480 and adjusted per-36 minute components.
mpg are minutes per team game.
NY Knicks:

Code: Select all

   Jalen Brunson
rd  mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e480
1   35   .560   29.0   2.8   6.2   1.0   2.8   .0   2.02
2   35   .641   32.3   3.5   5.9    .8   2.0   .0   2.26
3   40   .554   25.4   3.2   6.7    .9   2.6   .0   1.75
T   36   .581   28.8   3.1   6.3    .9   2.5   .0   2.00

   Josh Hart                        
1   34   .480   10.5  10.6   4.5   1.4   2.0   .0   1.10
2   35   .560   10.6  11.1   3.9   2.0   2.8   .5   1.01
3   31   .548   18.6  10.0   6.2   2.6   3.1   .0   1.81
T   33   .523   12.7  10.6   4.8   1.9   2.5   .2   1.26

   Mikal Bridges                        
rd  mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e480
1   27   .638   14.4   2.9   2.2    .7   1.5   .2    .49
2   32   .707   20.8   4.8   3.7   1.9    .3   .3   1.58
3   38   .638   19.5   4.4   2.5   1.4   1.9   .5   1.12
T   32   .660   18.0   3.9   2.7   1.3   1.3   .3   1.02

   Karl-Anthony Towns                        
1   32   .713   25.5  13.9   6.6   1.9   3.9  1.9   2.90
2   24   .729   29.0  15.2  10.9    .4   3.8  2.0   3.27
3   35   .643   19.2  13.7   4.0   1.5   2.7  1.1   1.96
T   30   .697   24.2  14.1   6.7   1.4   3.5  1.7   2.68
 
  OG Anunoby                        
rd  mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e480
1   36   .737   24.1   9.4   1.1   1.8    .4  1.2   2.16
2   17   .750   24.1   5.2   1.5   2.0   1.2  1.1   1.60
3   31   .637   21.3   7.3   3.6   1.1   1.0   .9   1.72
T   29   .709   23.2   8.1   2.0   1.6    .7  1.1   1.94

   Miles McBride                        
1   20   .473    7.9   2.0   1.3   1.1   1.8   .0   -.26
2   22   .667   15.1   2.5   1.9    .4    .4   .8    .61
3   16   .525   10.5   4.7   3.1   1.6    .0   .6    .65
T   19   .552   10.9   2.8   1.9   1.0    .9   .4    .24

   Landry Shamet                        
rd  mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e480
1    9   .393    5.2   1.3   1.2    .0   2.0   .0   -.72
2   15   .789   19.0   2.1   1.1   1.1   1.9   .0    .59
3   20  1.054   23.6   2.8   2.1    .8   1.0   .0   1.23
T   14   .777   17.1   2.2   1.5    .7   1.5   .0    .49

   Mitchell Robinson                        
1   14   .755   14.5  13.2    .7    .8   1.2  2.3   1.53
2   12   .438    8.0  13.9    .7    .7    .0   .7    .83
3   14   .474   10.8  15.6    .6   1.8   2.2   .6   1.10
T   13   .580   11.8  14.1    .7   1.0   1.2  1.4   1.22

   Jordan Clarkson                        
rd  mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e480
1   15   .517   16.6   3.5   1.4    .4    .8   .0    .65
2   11   .633   16.6  12.4   4.4   1.5   6.0   .0   1.09
3    9   .455    8.2   3.1    .0    .0   3.3  1.0   -.58
T   12   .532   14.8   5.7   1.9    .6   2.7   .2    .50

   Jose Alvarado                        
1    8   .605   18.9   4.4   5.2   3.3   2.2   .7   1.63
2    9   .692   18.7   4.7   2.7   1.8   2.1   .0   1.05
3    7   .500   11.9   2.5   3.3   2.2   4.0  1.2    .32
T    8   .607   17.0   4.0   3.9   2.6   2.6   .6   1.11

   Ariel Hukporti                        
rd  mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e480
1    3   .300    3.5  16.2    .0   1.6   5.5  5.1    .66
2   11   .480    7.7  15.6    .7    .0   1.6  1.5    .66
3    2  1.000   14.5  25.8   4.5   4.6    .0   .0   3.22
T    5   .459    7.2  16.7    .9    .9   2.5  2.3    .91

   Tyler Kolek                        
1    3   .500   13.8   3.6   8.1    .0   1.8  1.7   1.22
2    6   .545   15.9   4.8   7.4    .0   2.9   .0   1.02
3    2   .571   28.6   4.0   3.5    .0    .0   .0   2.01
T    4   .538   17.3   4.2   7.0    .0   2.0   .6   1.26

   Mohamed Diawara                        
rd  mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e480
1    3   .143    2.3   8.5   5.8   1.9   2.2   .0    .44
2    5   .417    6.6   4.2   1.6    .0   1.9   .0   -.29
3    2            .0  13.6   7.9    .0   4.8   .0    .19
T    3   .269    3.8   7.6   4.3    .7   2.5   .0    .07

   Pacôme Dadiet                        
1    2   .625   16.7   3.8    .0    .0    .0   .0    .58
2    6   .643   13.8   8.7   4.0   1.4   3.1   .0    .97
3    2   .500   21.6   4.5    .0   4.0    .0   .0   1.58
T    3   .588   16.0   6.7   2.3   1.6   1.8   .0   1.00

   Jeremy Sochan                        
1    2   .875   54.0   3.4    .0   3.1    .0   .0   4.11
2    3   .750   18.3  12.2   4.7    .0   2.7  2.5   1.76
T    2   .833   33.8   8.4   2.6   1.4   1.5  1.4   2.78
San Antonio Spurs:

Code: Select all

   Devin Vassell                        
rd  mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e484
1   34   .477   12.8   6.5   2.4   1.3   1.7  1.3    .86
2   31   .552   13.6   4.6   3.4   1.3   1.0   .6    .82
3   36   .571   13.1   5.2   2.3   1.7   1.1   .9    .86
T   34   .537   13.1   5.4   2.7   1.5   1.2   .9    .85

   Stephon Castle                        
1   33   .553   23.9   4.6   6.2    .8   4.5   .4   1.50
2   31   .656   26.7   6.3   6.6    .9   3.3   .4   2.05
3   36   .578   19.0   5.4   7.2   1.3   4.8   .4   1.24
T   33   .595   22.7   5.5   6.8   1.0   4.3   .4   1.56

   Victor Wembanyama                        
rd  mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e484
1   22   .706   33.5  11.9   2.4   1.1   4.0  5.2   3.23
2   29   .598   26.2  14.2   3.0    .4   3.5  5.3   2.86
3   38   .606   27.3  11.1   2.9   1.4   2.7  2.6   2.70
T   31   .622   28.2  12.2   2.8   1.0   3.2  4.0   2.86

   Julian Champagnie                        
1   29   .797   15.4   6.7   1.4   1.3    .9   .8   1.02
2   28   .616   13.8   7.5   2.0   2.1    .2   .2   1.10
3   34   .546   11.0   7.0   1.6   1.2    .8   .9    .69
T   30   .619   13.0   7.1   1.7   1.5    .6   .7    .90

   De'Aaron Fox                        
rd  mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e484
1   35   .574   22.9   4.3   6.5    .9   2.3   .4   1.72
2   32   .512   20.3   3.3   5.3   1.3   2.5   .4   1.32
3   22   .421   11.2   6.5   6.9   1.9   1.7   .2   1.14
T   29   .510   18.5   4.6   6.2   1.3   2.2   .4   1.40

   Dylan Harper                        
1   25   .649   19.5   5.2   2.2   1.4   2.1   .3   1.10
2   25   .647   21.5   7.9   3.1   1.5   2.4   .7   1.61
3   26   .564   16.2   8.1   4.2   1.3   2.4   .0   1.25
T   26   .615   18.8   7.2   3.3   1.4   2.3   .3   1.33

   Keldon Johnson                        
rd  mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e484
1   19   .456   10.2   8.2   2.3   1.6   2.8   .4    .53
2   18   .538   16.4   5.4   1.6   1.1   1.9   .6    .78
3   19   .489   15.2   5.3    .9    .7   2.1   .0    .33
T   19   .498   14.2   6.1   1.6   1.1   2.2   .3    .53

   Luke Kornet                        
1   19   .641   16.2  12.9   2.6   1.2   1.2   .7   1.66
2   14   .700    8.8   7.3   1.1   1.8   1.6  4.3    .78
3   10   .528    7.6  10.9   1.2    .4   1.8  1.3    .45
T   14   .623   11.3  10.5   1.7   1.2   1.5  2.1   1.02

   Harrison Barnes                        
rd  mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e484
1   11   .393    5.5   2.4    .5    .0    .0   .0   -.40
2    9   .679   11.5   7.6   1.7    .6    .7   .6    .72
3    8   .471    7.2   3.9    .0    .5   2.2   .0   -.49
T    9   .511    7.9   4.6    .7    .4   1.0   .2   -.09

   Carter Bryant                        
1    9   .615   11.8   8.3   4.7    .0   1.6  2.2   1.04
2   10   .615    8.8   6.5   2.4    .0   2.8   .0   -.14
3    8   .567    9.0   6.3   1.5   1.1   2.8  1.1   -.10
T    9   .598    9.7   6.9   2.8    .4   2.5  1.0    .21

   Jordan McLaughlin                        
rd  mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e484
1    1  1.000   35.4    .0  10.4   9.7    .0   .0   4.04
2    4  1.000    8.0   1.4   6.8   1.4    .0   .0    .60
3    3   .722   20.4   9.8   5.0    .0   2.8   .0   1.71
T    3   .792   15.7   5.4   6.2   1.3   1.3   .0   1.36

   Kelly Olynyk                        
2    3   .688   19.8   7.4   4.3   1.5   3.3   .0   1.35
3    2   .737   37.7   4.7    .0   6.5   4.6   .0   2.76
T    2   .676   25.4   6.0   2.4   3.3   3.6   .0   1.74

   Lindy Waters III                        
rd  mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e484
1    1   .000     .0   8.7    .0    .0    .0   .0   -.37
2    3   .650   23.7   8.2   3.2    .0   1.8   .0   1.69
3    2   .500    4.5    .0   4.6   4.8    .0   .0    .26
T    2   .577   14.2   5.4   3.3   1.7   1.0   .0    .94

   Bismack Biyombo                        
1    1            .0   8.7    .0    .0    .0   .0   -.37
2    2   .500   15.3   2.6    .0    .0   3.0  5.6    .42
3    1   .000     .0   3.4    .0    .0   3.3   .0  -1.55
T    1   .429    7.0   3.9    .0    .0   2.6  2.6   -.45

   Mason Plumlee                        
2    1   .500    7.8   7.3   3.5    .0   4.1  7.8    .88
3    1  1.000    7.3   6.7   3.0    .0    .0  3.2    .41
T    1   .667    6.7   6.2   2.9    .0   1.7  4.8    .45
Mike G
Posts: 6477
Joined: Fri Apr 15, 2011 12:02 am
Location: Asheville, NC

Re: 2026 Finals: Knicks vs Spurs

Post by Mike G »

More stats, round by round.
Knicks:

Code: Select all

     Jalen Brunson         
rd  min    PER   WS/48   BPM   e480
1   209   21.7   .204    3.2   2.02
2   138   27.5   .330    6.5   2.26
3   159   19.9   .213    2.6   1.75
T   506   22.7   .241    3.9   2.00
               
      Josh Hart         
1   201   12.4   .119    0.3   1.10
2   139   13.1   .129    1.0   1.01
3   122   18.8   .214    6.3   1.81
T   462   14.3   .147    2.1   1.26
               
      Mikal Bridges         
rd  min    PER   WS/48   BPM   e480
1   163   11.4   .136   -1.1    .49
2   129   23.6   .301    7.7   1.58
3   152   16.8   .189    3.1   1.12
T   444   16.8   .202    2.9   1.02
               
      Karl-Anthony Towns         
1   191   29.7   .372   13.4   2.90
2    94   32.1   .442   16.4   3.27
3   138   20.4   .245    6.7   1.96
T   423   27.2   .346   11.9   2.68
               
      OG Anunoby         
rd  min   PER   WS/48    BPM   e480
1   214   26.7   .348   10.7   2.16
2    68   23.8   .282    7.8   1.60
3   124   21.1   .309    7.1   1.72
T   406   24.5   .325    9.1   1.94
               
      Miles McBride         
1   118    3.9   .023   -5.5   -.26
2    88   15.1   .206    2.0    .61
3    62   13.5   .226    2.5    .65
T   268    9.8   .130   -1.2    .24
               
      Landry Shamet         
rd  min   PER   WS/48    BPM   e480
1    52   -1.0  -.054  -10.8   -.72
2    58   16.3   .215    2.9    .59
3    79   19.6   .303    9.1   1.23
T   189   12.9   .178    1.7    .49
               
      Mitchell Robinson         
1    83   26.2   .313    6.7   1.53
2    47   12.1   .161   -5.2    .83
3    54   16.0   .146   -1.7   1.10
T   184   19.6   .225    1.2   1.22
               
      Jordan Clarkson         
rd  min   PER   WS/48    BPM   e480
1    88   14.7   .152   -3.2    .65
2    42   16.2   .140   -0.7   1.09
3    35     .1  -.050   -9.0   -.58
T   165   12.0   .106   -3.8    .50
               
      Jose Alvarado         
1    47   22.1   .258    8.2   1.63
2    34   18.1   .191    2.2   1.05
3    29    9.0   .029   -2.6    .32
T   110   17.4   .177    3.5   1.11
               
      Ariel Hukporti         
rd  min   PER   WS/48    BPM   e480
1    19    9.4  -.010   -7.7    .66
2    44   10.1   .148   -9.1    .66
3     7   35.9   .620   18.3   3.22
T    70   12.5   .152   -6.0    .91
               
      Tyler Kolek         
1    19   16.4   .175   -1.1   1.22
2    25   14.5   .133   -4.1   1.02
3     9   26.5   .328    7.8   2.01
T    53   17.2   .181   -1.0   1.26
               
      Mohamed Diawara         
rd  min   PER   WS/48    BPM   e480
1    16    1.5  -.161  -11.0    .44
2    19    1.5  -.017  -12.3   -.29
3     8    4.2   .068   -1.5    .19
T    43    2.0  -.055   -9.8    .07
               
      Pacôme Dadiet         
1     9   14.2   .155   -3.8   -.83
2    23   16.3   .148    1.3    .97
3     8   25.2   .240    4.4   1.58
T    40   17.6   .168    0.8    .68
               
      Jeremy Sochan         
rd  min   PER   WS/48    BPM   e480
1    10   55.6   .518   21.2   4.11
2    13   24.1   .385    8.6   1.76
T    23   37.7   .444   14.1   2.78
               
      totals         
1  1440   18.3   .203    3.3   1.39
2   960   19.8   .241    3.8   1.43
3   985   17.9   .219    4.1   1.41
Spurs:

Code: Select all

      Devin Vassell         
rd  min    PER   WS/48   BPM   e480
1   169   11.9   .084    0.2    .86
2   188   13.2   .162    2.1    .83
3   252   14.1   .135    4.6    .86
T   609   13.2   .129    2.6    .85
               
      Stephon Castle         
1   164   16.5   .125    0.9   1.50
2   186   22.0   .267    5.0   2.04
3   252   16.3   .117    2.4   1.24
T   602   18.1   .166    2.8   1.56
               
      Victor Wembanyama         
rd  min    PER   WS/48   BPM   e480
1   112   31.4   .319   12.9   3.23
2   176   25.7   .246    7.0   2.86
3   264   27.1   .254   10.3   2.70
T   552   27.5   .265    9.8   2.86
               
      Julian Champagnie         
1   143   15.8   .211    6.3   1.02
2   167   16.8   .244    5.2   1.10
3   237   12.2   .114    2.9    .69
T   547   14.6   .179    4.5    .90
               
      De'Aaron Fox         
rd  min    PER   WS/48   BPM   e480
1   177   19.6   .201    3.7   1.72
2   189   14.6   .120   -0.6   1.31
3   155   13.0   .062    0.8   1.14
T   521   15.8   .130    1.3   1.40
               
      Dylan Harper         
1   127   17.9   .198    2.6   1.10
2   150   21.6   .252    5.2   1.61
3   183   16.4   .137    3.2   1.25
T   460   18.5   .191    3.7   1.32
               
      Keldon Johnson         
rd  min    PER   WS/48   BPM   e480
1    94    9.9   .054   -2.4    .53
2   110   14.0   .132   -1.1    .78
3   132   10.1   .015   -3.7    .33
T   336   11.3   .064   -2.5    .53
               
      Luke Kornet         
1    97   23.3   .290    5.4   1.66
2    84   16.6   .230    3.9    .79
3    73   12.5   .081   -1.6    .45
T   254   18.0   .210    2.9   1.02
               
      Harrison Barnes         
rd  min    PER   WS/48   BPM   e480
1    57    4.4   .039   -6.3   -.40
2    51   18.6   .279    4.7    .73
3    58    4.8  -.023   -4.8   -.49
T   166    8.9   .091   -2.4   -.09
               
      Carter Bryant         
1    46   16.6   .227    5.4   1.04
2    61    5.1   .060   -3.5   -.11
3    57    6.4   .008   -2.3   -.10
T   164    8.8   .089   -0.6    .22
               
      Jordan McLaughlin         
rd  min    PER   WS/48   BPM   e480
1     3   48.4   .745   38.9   4.04
2    21   16.3   .267    6.2    .59
3    22   23.9   .266    9.5   1.71
T    46   22.0   .298    9.9   1.35
               
      Kelly Olynyk         
1     2  -19.2  -.553  -24.9  -1.10
2    20   18.3   .194    5.0   1.35
3    13   37.8   .314   20.3   2.76
T    35   23.4   .196    9.0   1.73
               
      Lindy Waters III         
rd  min    PER   WS/48   BPM   e480
1     4   -6.1  -.179  -16.3   -.37
2    18   25.6   .284    6.4   1.68
3    12   15.6   .194    9.7    .26
T    34   18.3   .198    4.9    .94
               
      Bismack Biyombo         
1     4    3.4   .076   -1.0   -.37
2    11    9.7  -.016   -8.4    .46
3    10   -6.5  -.165  -14.2  -1.55
T    25    2.2  -.061   -9.5   -.48
               
      Mason Plumlee         
rd  min    PER   WS/48   BPM   e480
1     2     .0   .021   -5.2  -1.10
2     8   12.9   .053    2.4    .90
3     9   15.2   .253    5.5    .41
T    19   12.6   .144    3.1    .46
               
      totals         
1  1200   17.1   .173    3.1   1.32
2  1440   17.7   .202    3.2   1.37
3  1730   15.5   .123    3.1   1.11
https://www.basketball-reference.com/pl ... anced.html
Mike G
Posts: 6477
Joined: Fri Apr 15, 2011 12:02 am
Location: Asheville, NC

Re: 2026 Finals: Knicks vs Spurs

Post by Mike G »

Knicks 0 - 0 Spurs
106 - 104 ?
Pyth wins .56 - .44 , eWins .53 - .47

Code: Select all

eWin   per36 rates    tm  min   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e480
.16   Vi. Wembanyama  SA   31  .622   28.2  12.2   2.8   1.0   3.2  4.0   2.54
.15   Karl-A Towns    NY   30  .697   24.2  14.1   6.7   1.4   3.5  1.7   2.36
.13   Jalen Brunson   NY   36  .581   28.8   3.1   6.3    .9   2.5   .0   1.68
.10   OG Anunoby      NY   29  .709   23.2   8.1   2.0   1.6    .7  1.1   1.62
.09   Stephon Castle  SA   33  .595   22.7   5.5   6.8   1.0   4.3   .4   1.24

.07   De'Aaron Fox    SA   29  .510   18.5   4.6   6.2   1.3   2.2   .4   1.08
.06   Josh Hart       NY   33  .523   12.7  10.6   4.8   1.9   2.5   .2    .94
.05   Dylan Harper    SA   26  .615   18.8   7.2   3.3   1.4   2.3   .3   1.01
.05   Mikal Bridges   NY   32  .660   18.0   3.9   2.7   1.3   1.3   .3    .70
.04   Devin Vassell   SA   34  .537   13.1   5.4   2.7   1.5   1.2   .9    .53

eWin   per36 rates    tm  min   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e480
.04 Julian Champagnie SA   30  .619   13.0   7.1   1.7   1.5    .6   .7    .58
.02 Mitchell Robinson NY   13  .580   11.8  14.1    .7   1.0   1.2  1.4    .90
.02   Luke Kornet     SA   14  .623   11.3  10.5   1.7   1.2   1.5  2.1    .70
.01   Jose Alvarado   NY    8  .607   17.0   4.0   3.9   2.6   2.6   .6    .79
.01   Keldon Johnson  SA   19  .498   14.2   6.1   1.6   1.1   2.2   .3    .21

.01   Tyler Kolek     NY    4  .538   17.3   4.2   7.0    .0   2.0   .6    .94
.01   Ariel Hukporti  NY    5  .459    7.2  16.7    .9    .9   2.5  2.3    .59
.00   Landry Shamet   NY   14  .777   17.1   2.2   1.5    .7   1.5   .0    .17
.00  Jordan Clarkson  NY   12  .532   14.8   5.7   1.9    .6   2.7   .2    .18
-.00  Carter Bryant   SA    9  .598    9.7   6.9   2.8    .4   2.5  1.0   -.11

eWin   per36 rates    tm  min   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e480
-.00  Miles McBride   NY   19  .552   10.9   2.8   1.9   1.0    .9   .4   -.08
-.01  Harrison Barnes SA    9  .511    7.9   4.6    .7    .4   1.0   .2   -.41

All per36 and shooting rates are player averages thru the playoffs to date. eWins are adjusted downward to total 1.00. -- Players all have .32 shaved off their eW/480 min.
The minutes-avg assumes Wemby misses time (concussion?ejection?), Towns has foul trouble, Anunoby and Fox have some leg issues, etc.
Mike G
Posts: 6477
Joined: Fri Apr 15, 2011 12:02 am
Location: Asheville, NC

Re: 2026 Finals: Knicks vs Spurs

Post by Mike G »

Knicks 1 - 0 Spurs
105 - 95
Pythagorean wins .79 - .21 , eWins .65 - .35

Code: Select all

eWin   per36 rates   tm   min   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e480
.16   Vi. Wembanyama  SA   38  .473   25.3   9.4   1.8   1.0   5.7  2.9   1.97
.15   Josh Hart       NY   27  .273    3.5  18.1   7.8   5.2    .0  1.3   2.69
.15   Karl-A Towns    NY   35  .529   20.2  11.1   4.0    .0   2.3  1.0   2.01
.12   Jalen Brunson   NY   37  .455   30.7   2.6   1.9    .0   4.4   .0   1.53
.10 Julian Champagnie SA   32  .667   16.5   9.3   1.1    .0    .0  1.1   1.52

.10   Dylan Harper    SA   28  .696   20.8   8.3   1.2   1.4   1.3   .0   1.72
.08   OG Anunoby      NY   31  .607   19.1   3.1    .0   1.1    .0  1.2   1.28
.07   Stephon Castle  SA   35  .500   16.7   6.8   3.0    .0   2.1   .0    .99
.05   Jose Alvarado   NY   11  .583   25.8  11.4   3.1   3.1   3.6   .0   2.35
.05   Mikal Bridges   NY   28  .563   13.1   3.5   3.8   2.5   1.5   .0    .83

eWin   per36 rates   tm   min   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e480
.04   Miles McBride   NY   19  .429   10.9   1.7   7.2    .0    .0  1.9   1.11
.03   Devin Vassell   SA   36  .409    7.5   7.4   2.9    .0   1.0   .0    .36
.01 Mitchell Robinson NY   13  .400    4.5  14.5    .0    .0    .0   .0    .49
.00   Landry Shamet   NY   33  .722   14.3   1.0    .0    .0    .0   .0    .02
-.02  Harrison Barnes SA   12  .000     .0   4.8   2.8    .0    .0   .0   -.63

-.02  Keldon Johnson  SA    8  .375    9.7    .0    .0    .0    .0   .0   -.98
-.02  Luke Kornet     SA   10   ---     .0   2.9    .0   3.8    .0   .0  -1.01
-.04  De'Aaron Fox    SA   38  .250    5.1   3.1   4.5   1.0   2.9   .0   -.45
shooting : NY .510 - .468 SA + 5.3
rebounds: SA 54 - 49 NY + 3.8
turnovers: NY 9 - 13 SA + 6.2

Code: Select all

. NYK    min   PER   WS/48   BPM   e480     . SAS    min   PER   WS/48   BPM   e480
Brunson  37    9.5  -.111   -3.4   1.53      Fox     38   -1.9  -.150  -10.5   -.45
Towns    35   19.3   .215    4.0   2.01      Wemby   38   16.6   .032    3.6   1.97
Shamet   33   10.2   .158    1.0    .02      Vassell 36    9.6   .057    0.8    .36
Anunoby  31   18.9   .240    7.7   1.28      Castle  35   14.5   .057    1.0    .99
Bridges  28   15.1   .219    2.9    .83   Champagnie 32   20.0   .251   11.7   1.52

Hart     27   21.5   .310   13.0   2.69      Harper  28   22.0   .226    8.9   1.72
McBride  19   11.3   .145    6.4   1.11      Barnes  12   -1.5  -.072   -8.3   -.63
Robinson 13    9.0   .134   -1.8    .49      Kornet  10    2.2   .078   -5.0  -1.01
Alvarado 11   19.6   .166    4.6   2.35      Johnson  8   -1.6  -.108   -6.8   -.98
Clarkson  6   -5.1  -.122  -12.4  -1.11      Bryant   5   -4.7  -.114  -10.7  -1.24

. totals      14.5   .151   3.30   1.29     . totals      11.0   .052   0.71    .71
min. correl.   .19   -.13   -.07    .15                    .49    .17    .39    .62
Mike G
Posts: 6477
Joined: Fri Apr 15, 2011 12:02 am
Location: Asheville, NC

Re: 2026 Finals: Knicks vs Spurs

Post by Mike G »

Knicks 2 - 0 Spurs
avg score 105.0 - 99.5
Pyth wins 1.34 - .66 , eWins 1.17 - .83

Code: Select all

eWin   per36 rates    tm  mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e480
.33   Karl-A Towns    NY   34  .650   25.8  12.4   4.0    .5   2.6  1.1   2.33
.33   Vi. Wembanyama  SA   39  .524   26.6   9.0   1.7   1.5   4.6  3.2   2.02
.20   Mikal Bridges   NY   35  .690   19.4   4.4   4.5   1.5   1.3   .0   1.39
.19   OG Anunoby      NY   34  .642   19.0   3.5   1.5   1.5    .0  1.6   1.32
.17   Jalen Brunson   NY   37  .413   22.4   3.6   3.7   2.3   4.7   .0   1.14

.17   Dylan Harper    SA   30  .608   20.3   7.8   2.2   1.3   1.8   .0   1.38
.13   Devin Vassell   SA   37  .535   10.6   8.2   3.6    .0    .5   .5    .85
.13   Josh Hart       NY   23  .158    1.1  15.8   7.7   3.9   1.9  1.6   1.36
.11 Julian Champagnie SA   34  .632   12.8   7.0   1.0    .0    .0  1.1    .76
.10   Stephon Castle  SA   31  .470   17.1   6.5   3.8    .6   3.5   .0    .79

eWin   per36 rates    tm  mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e480
.06   De'Aaron Fox    SA   36  .500   13.4   3.3   4.6   1.1   3.5   .5    .41
.05   Landry Shamet   NY   32  .619   14.9   1.6   1.1    .0    .0   .6    .40
.05   Jose Alvarado   NY   11  .391   13.2  11.0   4.8   1.6   2.0   .0   1.21
.04 Mitchell Robinson NY   14  .600   11.9  11.0    .0   1.3   1.6  1.3    .75
.01   Miles McBride   NY   19  .393    8.8   2.6   5.3    .0   2.2   .9    .18

-.01  Keldon Johnson  SA   12  .333    5.4   5.5   2.7   1.6   1.5   .0   -.11
-.01  Luke Kornet     SA    9  .500    1.6   7.3    .0   4.2    .0   .0   -.20
-.02  Harrison Barnes SA    9  .000     .0   3.9   1.9    .0    .0   .0   -.67
shooting : NY .519 - .516 SA + .4
rebounds: SA 48.0 - 46.5 NY + 1.1
turnovers: NY 12.0 - 14.5 SA + 3.9

These ^ are point differentials typically conferred by advantages in the categories shown. It varies some.

Stars of last night's game:

Code: Select all

game   Knicks  GmSc   BPM    min      game   Spurs  GmSc   BPM    min
14.7   Towns   21.4  11.4   33.9      14.1   Wemby  22.8   7.1   40.3
13.7  Bridges  19.3   8.0   40.9      12.0  Vassell 15.4   8.2   38.1
12.2  Anunoby  17.1   7.9   36.8      10.8   Fox    16.1   6.9   33.8
"game" is 2/3 (BPM+5.25)*min/48 + 1/3 (GmSc*100/OppPts)

Code: Select all

. NYK    min   PER   WS/48   BPM   e480     . SAS    min   PER   WS/48   BPM   e480
Brunson  74   10.2  -.096   -2.4   1.14      Wemby   78   20.2   .087    5.8   2.02
Bridges  69   18.3   .232    5.9   1.39      Vassell 74   14.1   .147    5.4    .85
Towns    68   23.6   .267    8.3   2.33      Fox     72    8.4  -.002   -2.0    .41
Anunoby  68   18.9   .255    8.4   1.32   Champagnie 67   13.7   .170    6.3    .76
Shamet   64   10.9   .138    1.3    .40      Castle  62   10.6  -.016   -2.6    .79

Hart     45   12.0   .113    3.2   1.36      Harper  60   17.6   .156    3.7   1.38
McBride  38    5.8   .009   -2.0    .18      Johnson 24    3.8  -.056   -4.0   -.11
Robinson 27   14.1   .170   -0.4    .75      Kornet  18    5.9   .134   -1.6   -.20
Alvarado 21   11.8   .090   -2.1   1.21      Barnes  17    -.8  -.060   -6.7   -.67
Clarkson  6   -7.9  -.208  -12.4   -.91      Bryant   8  -12.7  -.255  -17.8  -2.10

. totals      14.5   .133   2.89   1.17      . totals     12.4   .074   1.69    .83
min. correl.   .48    .17    .46    .44    <-(1-9)->       .76    .39    .67    .76
Mike G
Posts: 6477
Joined: Fri Apr 15, 2011 12:02 am
Location: Asheville, NC

Re: 2026 Finals: Knicks vs Spurs

Post by Mike G »

Round by round team differentials:

Code: Select all

SAS:   TS%  opp%   TReb%   TO%  oTO%    mov
Por   .595  .508   52.2   13.9  11.5   12.4
Min   .606  .502   53.4   12.5  12.0   16.2
OKC   .563  .545   52.5   13.8  12.5    3.7
NY@2  .524  .525   50.8   13.2  10.7   -5.5

NYK:   TS%  opp%   TReb%   TO%  oTO%    mov
Atl   .609  .537   55.4   12.0  13.6   17.5
Phl   .636  .559   57.0   12.6  13.7   22.3
Cle   .585  .533   55.6   12.8  15.6   19.3
SA@2  .525  .524   49.2   10.7  13.2    5.5
Crow
Posts: 11394
Joined: Thu Apr 14, 2011 11:10 pm

Re: 2026 Finals: Knicks vs Spurs

Post by Crow »

Clear cut MVP candidates, by the numbers, so far.
Mike G
Posts: 6477
Joined: Fri Apr 15, 2011 12:02 am
Location: Asheville, NC

Re: 2026 Finals: Knicks vs Spurs

Post by Mike G »

Knicks 2 - 1 Spurs
avg score 107.0 - 104.7
Pyth wins 1.72 - 1.28 , eWins 1.61 - 1.39

Code: Select all

eWin   per36 rates    tm  mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e480
.59   Vi. Wembanyama  SA   39  .580   28.5   8.5   2.8   1.6   3.4  3.1   2.43
.44   OG Anunoby      NY   35  .705   27.8   4.0   1.2   1.0    .4  1.7   2.00
.38   Karl-A Towns    NY   35  .602   19.1  11.1   2.8   1.3   1.9  1.4   1.72
.24   Jalen Brunson   NY   37  .458   22.3   4.2   3.9   1.6   4.8   .0   1.04
.22   Josh Hart       NY   27  .487    7.6  13.4   6.2   2.2   2.0   .9   1.32

.22   Stephon Castle  SA   33  .540   18.9   5.9   3.9    .7   2.9   .4   1.04
.20   Dylan Harper    SA   31  .494   14.7   8.5   2.8    .8   1.2   .0   1.06
.18 Julian Champagnie SA   31  .621   14.8   5.5   1.7    .4    .0   .8    .90
.15   Devin Vassell   SA   37  .630   12.2   6.8   2.3    .0    .6   .3    .65
.14   Mikal Bridges   NY   33  .596   12.6   5.1   3.7   1.1   1.2   .4    .71

eWin   per36 rates    tm  mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e480
.10 Mitchell Robinson NY   11  .609   16.5  13.4    .0   1.0   1.2  1.0   1.40
.07   De'Aaron Fox    SA   36  .453   10.2   3.2   5.4   1.0   3.0  1.0    .33
.06   Jose Alvarado   NY   11  .394    9.5  10.7   3.9   1.1   1.2   .0    .82
.05  Jordan Clarkson  NY    6  .625   22.2   7.4   1.7   1.9   4.2   .0   1.23
.03   Luke Kornet     SA    9  .500    3.3  10.9   2.3   3.9    .0   .0    .57

.02   Landry Shamet   NY   29  .500   10.2   2.8   1.5    .0    .0   .8    .10
-.02  Carter Bryant   SA    4  .667   14.4    .0    .0    .0   3.0  3.0   -.62
-.02  Keldon Johnson  SA   13  .406    7.9   5.1   1.6   1.8   2.7   .0   -.23
-.02  Harrison Barnes SA    6  .000     .0   4.0   1.9    .0    .0   .0   -.68
-.04  Miles McBride   NY   15  .344    4.9   2.3   4.2    .0   2.6   .8   -.38
shooting : SA .536 - .532 NY + .4
rebounds: NY 46.3 - 44.3 SA + 1.5
turnovers: SA 12.3 - 12.3 NY + 0.0

Code: Select all

. NYK    min    PER   WS/48   BPM   e480     . SAS    min    PER   WS/48   BPM   e480
Brunson  110   13.2  -.050   -1.1   1.04      Wemby   117   25.8   .185    9.8   2.43
Towns    106   20.2   .206    5.4   1.72      Vassell 112   11.9   .123    3.2    .65
Anunoby  106   22.1   .272    9.6   2.00      Fox     109    8.9  -.014   -2.7    .33
Bridges   98   12.9   .141    2.3    .71      Castle  100   14.6   .061    0.7   1.04
Shamet    87    8.1   .099   -1.2    .10   Champagnie  94   13.9   .152    5.9    .90

Hart      80   15.0   .140    6.2   1.32      Harper   92   14.3   .089    0.1   1.06
McBride   46    2.3  -.075   -5.3   -.38      Johnson  40    3.8  -.105   -7.2   -.23
Robinson  34   19.6   .212    1.8   1.40      Kornet   28   14.0   .230    3.9    .57
Alvarado  33   10.9   .060   -3.4    .82      Barnes   17    -.8  -.081   -6.7   -.68
Clarkson  19   14.9   .029    3.9   1.23      Bryant   12    1.5  -.028   -5.0   -.62

. totals       14.6   .118   2.59   1.07     . totals       13.8   .087   2.07    .93
min. correl.    .43    .30    .49    .44                     .63    .40    .58    .68
Game-by-game eWins:

Code: Select all

. NYK       1    2    3     . SAS       1    2    3
Anunoby   .08  .10  .25      Wemby    .16  .17  .26
Towns     .15  .18  .05      Castle   .07  .03  .12
Brunson   .12  .06  .06      Harper   .10  .07  .03
Hart      .15 -.02  .09   Champagnie  .10  .00  .07
Bridges   .05  .15 -.06      Vassell  .03  .10  .02
Robinson  .01  .03  .06      Fox     -.04  .10  .01
Alvarado  .05  .00  .00      Kornet  -.02  .01  .04
Clarkson -.01  .00  .06      Bryant  -.01 -.02  .02
Shamet    .00  .05 -.04      Johnson -.02  .01 -.01
McBride   .04 -.03 -.05      Barnes  -.02 -.01  .00
tot.      .65  .53  .44       tot.    .35  .47  .56
Mike G
Posts: 6477
Joined: Fri Apr 15, 2011 12:02 am
Location: Asheville, NC

Re: 2026 Finals: Knicks vs Spurs

Post by Mike G »

Wins assigned by 4 stats, averaged. More weight to bpm and eWins.

Code: Select all

wins   player   tm  min   PER   WS/48   BPM  e484     pW   WS   bW   eW
.54  Wembanyama SA  117   25.8   .185   9.8  2.43    .56  .43  .53  .59
.47   Anunoby   NY  106   22.1   .272   9.6  2.00    .41  .57  .47  .44
.37   Towns     NY  106   20.2   .206   5.4  1.72    .36  .44  .34  .38
.24  Champagnie SA   94   13.9   .152   5.9   .90    .17  .28  .31  .18
.23   Hart      NY   80   15.0   .140   6.2  1.32    .16  .22  .28  .22

.22   Vassell   SA  112   11.9   .123   3.2   .65    .14  .27  .29  .15
.19   Bridges   NY   98   12.9   .141   2.3   .71    .15  .28  .22  .14
.18   Castle    SA  100   14.6   .061   0.7  1.04    .20  .12  .18  .22
.17   Harper    SA   92   14.3   .089   0.1  1.06    .17  .16  .15  .20
.14   Brunson   NY  110   13.2  -.050  -1.1  1.04    .18 -.11  .14  .24

xyzW   player   tm  min   PER   WS/48   BPM  e484     pW   WS   bW   eW
.10  Robinson   NY   34   19.6   .212   1.8  1.40    .11  .14  .07  .10
.08   Shamet    NY   87    8.1   .099  -1.2   .10    .03  .17  .11  .02
.06   Kornet    SA   28   14.0   .230   3.9   .57    .05  .12  .07  .03
.05   Fox       SA  109    8.9  -.014  -2.7   .33    .05 -.03  .07  .07
.04   Clarkson  NY   19   14.9   .029   3.9  1.23    .04  .01  .05  .05

.04   Alvarado  NY   33   10.9   .060  -3.4   .82    .03  .04  .02  .06
-.01  Bryant    SA   12    1.5  -.028  -5.0  -.62   -.02 -.03 -.01 -.02
-.02  Barnes    SA   17   - .8  -.081  -6.7  -.68   -.03 -.03 -.01 -.02
-.03  McBride   NY   46    2.3  -.075  -5.3  -.38   -.1  -.1   .0   .0
-.03  Johnson   SA   40    3.8  -.105  -7.2  -.23    .0  -.1   .0   .0
Brunson with by far the biggest avg deviation; then Vassell, Champagnie, Shamet, Bridges, Anunoby, Wemby.
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