294 lineups. 10 of 11 most used positive.
0-2 against Warriors and Suns. 2 of 3 most likely 1st round opponents.
More later.
Spurs
Re: Spurs
5 top 10 factors, 2 mid, 1 bottom 10 (opponent turnovers). #1 on defensive rebounding.
Wembanyama minutes creeping back up, pushed 26 minutes in last game. Averaging 30 for season. Usage right in his normal range (31%). Career best ts% and ft rate. Career low stocks but still strong. 3pt rate almost cut in half from last season. BPM takes another step up to +7.5. (Though this is less than half of Jokic.)
Rotation leader on raw +/- on court and on / off.
Fox, Kornet, Castle, Johnson all chipping in with +2 to +3 BPM. Harper at just +0.2 BPM but great raw +/-.
16th on pace. Common for good teams, good defenses.
Called a young team because of young core pieces but actually only 14th youngest by minutes weighted age. A good blend.
7th on team fta rate. Thunder 20th. 4th on at the rim frequency, Thunder 21st. 16th on 3pta rate, Thunder 17th. Spurs have 2 heightened Moreyball tendencies, Thunder none. And yet dead tied for 5th / 6th best offensive efficiency. Thunder with 10 spot advantage on own turnovers, and FT%, Spurs with 17 spot lead in offensive rebounding. Similar on TS%.
Wembanyama minutes creeping back up, pushed 26 minutes in last game. Averaging 30 for season. Usage right in his normal range (31%). Career best ts% and ft rate. Career low stocks but still strong. 3pt rate almost cut in half from last season. BPM takes another step up to +7.5. (Though this is less than half of Jokic.)
Rotation leader on raw +/- on court and on / off.
Fox, Kornet, Castle, Johnson all chipping in with +2 to +3 BPM. Harper at just +0.2 BPM but great raw +/-.
16th on pace. Common for good teams, good defenses.
Called a young team because of young core pieces but actually only 14th youngest by minutes weighted age. A good blend.
7th on team fta rate. Thunder 20th. 4th on at the rim frequency, Thunder 21st. 16th on 3pta rate, Thunder 17th. Spurs have 2 heightened Moreyball tendencies, Thunder none. And yet dead tied for 5th / 6th best offensive efficiency. Thunder with 10 spot advantage on own turnovers, and FT%, Spurs with 17 spot lead in offensive rebounding. Similar on TS%.
Re: Spurs
Castle 9th best on raw team +/- on court and on / off. On / off is +0.1.
3 ball is still weak at under 27% from season, slightly worse than last season. 2 for 19 recently.
Up to +0.7 BPM. -0.2 Darko.
Top 16% on offensive Darko and bottom 20% on defensive Darko despite the raw on / off team ratings going the other direction.
Almost all RAPM is -1 or a bit worse but xrapm is +1.
LeBron is the upper outlier at +2.3. LeBron estimates Castle as going from nearly 500th best last season to 30th best. I don't buy that outlier valuation.
FT rate up about 50% from last season. Shooting is slightly less Moreyball.
3 ball is still weak at under 27% from season, slightly worse than last season. 2 for 19 recently.
Up to +0.7 BPM. -0.2 Darko.
Top 16% on offensive Darko and bottom 20% on defensive Darko despite the raw on / off team ratings going the other direction.
Almost all RAPM is -1 or a bit worse but xrapm is +1.
LeBron is the upper outlier at +2.3. LeBron estimates Castle as going from nearly 500th best last season to 30th best. I don't buy that outlier valuation.
FT rate up about 50% from last season. Shooting is slightly less Moreyball.
Re: Spurs
Spurs, pretty good.
But some of the core are not lighting it up on BPM or raw +/-.
Fox is a +2 on BPM but that isn't particularly good for a max contract. Team almost twice as good with him off as on.
Castle just neutral on BPM, also negative on / off. January so far is clear worst of season.
Vassell, slightly negative BPM but positive +/-.Making $27 million and has never been above +0.4 on BPM, with 4 of 6 seasons negative.
Harper and Barnes mildly worse BPM. Near team average +/-.
Sochan and Bryant in the bottom of both measures..
Continue as is or change something? Many want more 3pt shooting. Offensive rebounding and opponent turnovers are just mid and weak.
But some of the core are not lighting it up on BPM or raw +/-.
Fox is a +2 on BPM but that isn't particularly good for a max contract. Team almost twice as good with him off as on.
Castle just neutral on BPM, also negative on / off. January so far is clear worst of season.
Vassell, slightly negative BPM but positive +/-.Making $27 million and has never been above +0.4 on BPM, with 4 of 6 seasons negative.
Harper and Barnes mildly worse BPM. Near team average +/-.
Sochan and Bryant in the bottom of both measures..
Continue as is or change something? Many want more 3pt shooting. Offensive rebounding and opponent turnovers are just mid and weak.
Re: Spurs
Spurs, 14th on efg%, 24th on 3pt fg%.
Harper at 47% efg%, 24% 3pt fg%. Castle, 50% and 28%. Fox, 54% and 34%. League averages are 54% and 36%. Other Spurs are better but these guys pull the team average down in a primary responsibility.
Harper at 47% efg%, 24% 3pt fg%. Castle, 50% and 28%. Fox, 54% and 34%. League averages are 54% and 36%. Other Spurs are better but these guys pull the team average down in a primary responsibility.
Re: Spurs
Thru 2 games, Spurs vs. Knicks, Spurs have used 30 lineups. 9 positive, 8 neutral, 13 negative. Only one of 5 most used is negative, but it is most used. Starters with Fox / Castle. Still those 5 are +18 while the other 25 lineups are -29.
The biggest Fox / Harper and Castle / Harper lineups are winning. Overall Fox / Castle is slightly negative, Castle/ Harper bad, Fox / Harper really great.
Within starting lineup are 4 overall positive player pairs, a neutral, 5 negative. The massively worst are the 3 between Castle, Champagnie and Vassell.
The 2 biggest winner pairs are Wembanyama - Harper and Fox - Harper.
Castle - K Johnon is also good, but Fox - Johnson is bad Kornet terrible with Castle and Champagnie.
Right now Mitch Johnson is losing badly in the near dinks and dink lineups. Will he continue to use many or concentrate more? The numbers and some fans are saying change. What is Spurs analytics saying and to what affect? What is Johnson thinking about the results? So far Coach is getting losing results his way.
Small samples but that is what is happening so far. How does it look to tge insiders?
Just 2 games, but it is pretty much now or never for change. Of the results. Or the management and results.
Any major media look closely at the lineup data? Send me the link of anything substantial.
Fox pairs, 3 positive, 2 neutral, 4 negative.
Wembanyama, 4, 1, 4.
Castle, 2 positive, 7 negative.
Harper, 5 positive, 1 neutral, 3 negative.
Too early to make future judgments, but only 1 of these 4 have good numbers here, 2 meh, 1 bad.
Champagnie, 1 positive, 1 neutral, 7 negative.
Vassell, 4, 0, 5.
Kornet, 0, 2, 7.
Bryant, 7 negative.
Johnson, 3 positive, 4 negative.
The biggest Fox / Harper and Castle / Harper lineups are winning. Overall Fox / Castle is slightly negative, Castle/ Harper bad, Fox / Harper really great.
Within starting lineup are 4 overall positive player pairs, a neutral, 5 negative. The massively worst are the 3 between Castle, Champagnie and Vassell.
The 2 biggest winner pairs are Wembanyama - Harper and Fox - Harper.
Castle - K Johnon is also good, but Fox - Johnson is bad Kornet terrible with Castle and Champagnie.
Right now Mitch Johnson is losing badly in the near dinks and dink lineups. Will he continue to use many or concentrate more? The numbers and some fans are saying change. What is Spurs analytics saying and to what affect? What is Johnson thinking about the results? So far Coach is getting losing results his way.
Small samples but that is what is happening so far. How does it look to tge insiders?
Just 2 games, but it is pretty much now or never for change. Of the results. Or the management and results.
Any major media look closely at the lineup data? Send me the link of anything substantial.
Fox pairs, 3 positive, 2 neutral, 4 negative.
Wembanyama, 4, 1, 4.
Castle, 2 positive, 7 negative.
Harper, 5 positive, 1 neutral, 3 negative.
Too early to make future judgments, but only 1 of these 4 have good numbers here, 2 meh, 1 bad.
Champagnie, 1 positive, 1 neutral, 7 negative.
Vassell, 4, 0, 5.
Kornet, 0, 2, 7.
Bryant, 7 negative.
Johnson, 3 positive, 4 negative.
Re: Spurs
At factor level, Knicks are slightly ahead on efg%. Major lead on own turnovers. Offensive rebounding nearly tied. Spurs win at free throw line.
At individual boxscore stats level, 4 Spurs look good (Harper, Champagnie, Vassell and Kornet), Wemby meh, 2 weak (Fox and Castle), 2 really terrible (Bryant and Barnes).
At individual boxscore stats level, 4 Spurs look good (Harper, Champagnie, Vassell and Kornet), Wemby meh, 2 weak (Fox and Castle), 2 really terrible (Bryant and Barnes).
Re: Spurs
Finals so far played at modestly faster pace than either played previously in playoffs and in fact faster than anyone's average, except for a tie with Nuggets at 98.5.
Offensive and defensive pace has always been desirable detail.
With enough thought and effort, it probably would be possible to get down to pace factor influences compared to average. Including fast breaks. How many seconds to play end compared to normal for that play end type, then translated into pace impact for the total differences.
Offensive and defensive pace has always been desirable detail.
With enough thought and effort, it probably would be possible to get down to pace factor influences compared to average. Including fast breaks. How many seconds to play end compared to normal for that play end type, then translated into pace impact for the total differences.