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Re: 2015-16 Team win projections
Posted: Tue Nov 17, 2015 4:20 am
by tarrazu
Pretty sure my projections mixed up 'HOU' and 'PHX'.
Re: 2015-16 Team win projections
Posted: Tue Nov 17, 2015 12:43 pm
by Mike G
kmedved wrote:I would guess it's reversed, with the West having the better rookies (Towns, WCS), player movement being relatively flat (Monroe and Carroll stayed in the East, Batum and Hibbert mostly cancel), so the remaining Eastern improvement must be coming from player talent improvement.
It looks as flat as it could possibly be. Players totaling 35,000 minutes last year went from east to west; and an equal number from west to east.
The talent was also equal, with 60 eWins totaled by each group. In both cases, they totaled .82 eW/484 last year; and they both are hitting .74 eW/484 this year.
But the equivalence stops there. The west-to-east group has totaled 30% more minutes thus far, than the east-to-west players.
Of this latter group, 25 got over 10 mpg last year, and 15 of these are getting notably less in the West.
Code: Select all
. east to west 1415 mpg 1516 mpg
Gerald Henderson Cha 29 Por 15
David West Ind 29 SAS 15
Luc Mbah a Moute Phl 29 LAC 5
Paul Pierce Was 26 LAC 22
Lance Stephenson Cha 26 LAC 20
Brandon Bass Bos 24 LAL 15
Mirza Teletovic Brk 22 Phx 11
Caron Butler Det 21 Sac 11
Rasual Butler Was 20 SAS 11
Quincy Acy NYK 19 Sac 10
Chris Johnson Mil 18 Uta 6
Cole Aldrich NYK 16 LAC 5
Damjan Rudez Ind 15 Min 5
Mike Miller Cle 13 Den 4
Cory Jefferson Brk 11 Phx 5
Some West teams have stockpiled players who can't all get the same minutes they're accustomed to getting.
In raw MPG, the E->W group avg'd 20 last year and 15 so far this year.
West-east movers were/are 20/20.
As an overall subpopulation,
traded players tend to be below avg and also generally in decline. But they are still contributors.
Re: 2015-16 Team win projections
Posted: Tue Nov 17, 2015 3:54 pm
by kmedved
tarrazu wrote:Pretty sure my projections mixed up 'HOU' and 'PHX'.
I have you at 29 wins for Phoenix and 57 for Houston. You sure?
Re: 2015-16 Team win projections
Posted: Tue Nov 17, 2015 4:20 pm
by Statman
kmedved wrote:tarrazu wrote:Pretty sure my projections mixed up 'HOU' and 'PHX'.
I have you at 29 wins for Phoenix and 57 for Houston. You sure?
I believe he was joking, assuming those are the two teams his projections are off most either direction.
Re: 2015-16 Team win projections
Posted: Tue Nov 17, 2015 5:53 pm
by tarrazu
Statman wrote:kmedved wrote:tarrazu wrote:Pretty sure my projections mixed up 'HOU' and 'PHX'.
I have you at 29 wins for Phoenix and 57 for Houston. You sure?
I believe he was joking, assuming those are the two teams his projections are off most either direction.
Yes, sorry **insert sarcasm**. I believe I had the highest on HOU and lowest on PHX. Never liked the PHX projection but I was fine on HOU, you know when they don't attempt to start Harden and Lawson together.
Re: 2015-16 Team win projections
Posted: Tue Nov 17, 2015 7:09 pm
by Statman
tarrazu wrote:
Yes, sorry **insert sarcasm**. I believe I had the highest on HOU and lowest on PHX. Never liked the PHX projection but I was fine on HOU, you know when they don't attempt to start Harden and Lawson together.
Actually, if it makes you feel better, I had Houston a full 4 games better than you did, which is in part destroying my projections.
Re: 2015-16 Team win projections
Posted: Tue Nov 17, 2015 7:49 pm
by Mike G
Over in the 'improved' thread, we see Lawson and Harden at #1 and #2 biggest dropoffs from last year. Brewer is in the top (bottom) 20, and Ariza is close
Re: 2015-16 Team win projections
Posted: Tue Nov 17, 2015 8:07 pm
by Dr Positivity
Some Rockets efficiency (in ORTG) last season to this season
Harden 118 -> 104
Lawson 113 -> 91
Ariza 107 -> 95
Brewer 101 -> 80
Terry 112 -> 99
Beverley 107 -> 78
And the drop-off on D has been worse
Re: 2015-16 Team win projections
Posted: Tue Nov 17, 2015 8:13 pm
by Mike G
Team wins projected by current W + Pyth% * remaining games. No regression.
Absolute avg error from prediction. No exponent.
Code: Select all
GSW 74 Chi 48 Mil 32
SAS 67 Cha 46 Sac 31
Cle 60 Dal 46 Den 30
Mia 58 LAC 44 Was 28
Bos 57 Ind 42 Mem 27
Phx 55 NYK 41 LAL 24
Tor 54 Orl 40 Hou 23
Okl 52 Det 40 NOP 18
Uta 50 Min 37 Brk 18
Atl 49 Por 33 Phl 10
AJ 9.1 rsm 9.7 itca 10.3
DF 9.3 snd 9.8 DrP 10.4
Cal 9.5 tzu 9.9 MG 10.6
KF 9.5 fpli 9.9 BD 10.9
DSM 9.6 Crow 9.9 nr 10.9
bbs 9.6 Dan 10.1 EZ 11.3
km 9.6 yoop 10.3 taco 11.5
2015 Pyth is a distant last, at 12.5
Re: 2015-16 Team win projections
Posted: Tue Nov 17, 2015 9:21 pm
by kmedved
Yeah, the Rockets are basically everyone's nightmare point. Here's an extremely wide image which color codes the square errors (linked to avoid screwing with the view here):
http://i.imgur.com/FbFb8L5.png
As you can see, the Rockets are also basically why the 15 Pyth + Regression model is doing so well right now. Pretty dramatically outperforming anyone else there.
Re: 2015-16 Team win projections
Posted: Wed Nov 18, 2015 4:02 am
by A Gravity Well
What were your methodologies for picking games? Sum up player ratings times % of minutes for both teams, include HCA and profit?
Re: 2015-16 Team win projections
Posted: Wed Nov 18, 2015 5:40 am
by kmedved
Basically, yes. I used minutes projections from a fantasy basketball site, took RPM, age-adjusted it, regressed everyone to the mean, then added an additional regression to the mean factor for players changing teams. This gave me team efficiency ratings. I then added in preseason results to adjust the team ratings further (which had a somewhat dramatic positive impact I think), and then used those to generate winning percentages. These were adjusted for travel distance (as the crow flies mileage), and back to backs as well.
I didn't do anything fancy like usage-based RPM adjustments, or RPM/BPM blends. The travel/rest stuff had minimal impact (under a win per team). Regressing players who changed teams to the mean has helped a lot so far, but I suspect may hurt me down the line.
Re: 2015-16 Team win projections
Posted: Wed Nov 18, 2015 9:36 am
by Mike G
kmedved wrote:... regressed everyone to the mean, then added an additional regression to the mean factor for players changing teams...
Verry interesting. On the one hand, we could surmise that players are being moved for mostly good reasons -- not a good fit here, maybe a better fit there -- but it does seem as if there's almost always a period of adjustment, which may or may not resolve itself.
And "to the mean" would seem to suggest that really
bad teams acquiring (and losing) mediocre players are expected to do
better than these new players' rates would indicate?
Re: 2015-16 Team win projections
Posted: Wed Nov 18, 2015 3:24 pm
by kmedved
Mike G wrote:And "to the mean" would seem to suggest that really bad teams acquiring (and losing) mediocre players are expected to do better than these new players' rates would indicate?
Yes - the same coefficient is applied to all players changing teams. This drags down good players and improves bad players, so someone like Bargnani doesn't end up quite as much a detriment as you might otherwise expect. This doesn't just apply to bad teams however. David Lee's rating got pushed up by the same percent as Bargnani's.
Re: 2015-16 Team win projections
Posted: Wed Nov 18, 2015 4:26 pm
by BasketDork
Dead on with ATL, IND so far..closest with CHI (-1), POR (+2), LAL (+3)...far away with HOU (+33), NO (+26), PHX (-23) and BOS (-21). Within 5 wins on OKC, CLE, DAL, PHI as well. More than ten wins off on GSW, LAC, SA, MIA, MIL, MEM, WAS, TOR, CHA, DET,ORL, and BKN. It's a long season, we'll see where they end up. Should have gone higher on GSW, SA, MIA, TOR, CHA, DET, ORL, and especially NYK, lower on LAC, MIL, MEM, WAS, and BKN.
