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More on changing Suns:

https://x.com/bballstrategy/status/1912455129787429036

More on changing Bulls:

https://x.com/bballstrategy/status/1912912737900044658

Vassell in yr 5:

BPM of -1, almost same as yr 1.
-7 raw on / off.
1 good month on overall offense, 1 on defense.
April was 2nd worst for offense, 2nd best for defense but only meh.

Awful game by Risacher. The one before was pretty bad.

More front news.

Some staying with who they have.

Any more changes coming?

Suns want Myers?

Don't know how many $8+ million / yr executives there are but that
might be on a general decline. But... maybe 1 or 2 more. Same with Coaches.

Hard to see Heat improving much in near term.

What to try?

Cam Johnson or Tari Eason? Hard to see them making best offer, sufficient to win, on current contracts unless giving up someone they dont want to give up. Big multi-player in & out deals? Herro and whatever for Sheppard, Smith and whatever? Rockets have plenty to decide or who to keep, let go.

Zion Williamson? Would be interesting. Big win or flop?

What does simulation suggest would happen in these cases?

Jaylen Brown?

Who else?

Nuggets getting beat badly 2 thru 6.

Still can turn it around in this series but would take a lot to get down the road far.

Imagined multiple championship opportunities or expectationd replaced with future struggles to get back to a 4 seed or a 7 seed or worse.

What will Jokic say / do and when?

Play Murray Westbrook Braun Gordon Jokic 42 minutes per game each, at least 30 altogether and sprinkle Porter, Watson and whoever else in tiny doses for breathers or more if Westbrook or Braun play poorly? I have sketched that out feasibly and would do that. This main lineup is doing well but in only about 9 minutes per game.

2 first time coaches eliminated, 1 facing a game 7.

Ideally a team has positive 5 starters and 3+ positive bench, but 4-5 positives total is typical in playoff data.

Unless a player is positive or close, his salary should ideally be low or at least moderate.

The bench minimum standard should probably generally be soak up minutes without hurting much. That is different than "spark plug", "change of pace weapon", etc.

Play D, including switching, swing the ball, catch n shoot on modest or low usage, rebound...

Batum. Dean Wade. DiVincenzo. Alexander-Walker. K Williams.

Hauser, Cason Wallace, Eason, P Watson, G Payton, mostly but not on everything.

Caruso is a Rolls Royce, affordable now but less likely in 2 years. Caruso or Dort will probably become a choice or neither.

Acquire some of these guys one way or another.

3 2nd round series will be short commutes and 1 will not.

How much has Popovich acted as El Jefe the past 6 years?

Any major changes coming?

6 of 7 best playoff offensives still alive, 6 of 6 best defenses by efficiency.

Warriors and Knick have top 6 defenses but not offenses.

Clippers had top 6 offense but not defense.

TWolves just missed on offense, taking 7th.

The elite 8 teams in 2nd round have 14 of Darko top 25 and 28 of top 50.

Getting elite individual ratings on an elite team is a far stronger case for superstar and star than doing it on a non-elite team imo.

2 with Darko of +2.5 or more, about 2 more with Darko of +1.8 to +2.4.

Get your elite top 4 and win the 1st round or figure out how to change to get there.




If top 75 talent / performance were equally distributed, teams would have 2.5 over +1.4. Jalen Johnson was the last at +1.4, Sabonis the first at +1.3. Cade Cunningham, Maxey, Adebayo, Herro, Fox and Sengun fall on the slightly short side individually and team. It is reasonable to me to question if they are good enough for top 2 roles on at least 2nd round teams. Some may improve and get there, some will not. Can be a relatively strong 3rd or 4th.

If talent / team performance were equally distributed, all teams would have 4 with DPM of +0.6. Check whether a specific team has or does not have that. The elite 8 have 47 of the Darko top 125 or almost 6 per team. That leaves 78 for the other 22 teams or an average of about 3.5. If you have 4 you may be decent but probably will continue to fall short of elite 8 except in some fluke playoff outcome. 5 is close. 3 is below median and probably lottery bound.

3, 4, 5 or 6+ qualifying top 125 players. That is a significant measure.

Rockets barely got to 6 of +0.6 Darko or better. They were / are close. Lakers 5.

Clippers 7. Fell short of expectations.

Griz 4. Did not get close.

Heat 2. Did not get close to close.

Magic 5. Pistons 5.

Bucks 3. Not close to close even if they had Lillard.

Sure the exact levels matter and close to +0.6 might be enough sometimes to matter but a elite sized qualifying group is desirable, maybe necessary.

The second 8 had 37 of the top 125 or almost 4.5.

That leaves 41 for the lottery teams or almost 3 each. Some may only have 2 or perhaps even 1 or 0?

3 or less you are almost certainly lottery. 4 and you are probably play-in or a bit better in east. 4.5 to 5, you probably make but lose in 1st round. 6+ you are elite 8 or close.

Thunder 9. Cavs 7. Celtics 8.

Wolves 6. Knicks 5. Warriors 7. Nuggets 4. Pacers 4.


Thunder just 2 over $20 million. Celtics 5, Cavs 4. Thunder 6 over $10 mil., Celtics 6,, Cavs 7. Better get qualifying value back.

Thunder will have 2 instead of 1 near $20 mil year and project to have 4 well over $20 mil after 2 years. Current structure will get less favorable without major changes.

5 playoff teams have same number of wins at pythagorean expected. 9 up or down 1. Knicks and Nuggets both up 2. Rockets and Clippers with the series outcome altering variances to date.



Playoff pace up 2 from last time but still 4 less than regular season and 2nd lowest in last 9 years of playoffs. Thunder and Pacers are fastest remaining, Celtics and Timberwolves the slowest. Thunder almost 5 possessions more per game than Pacers.

3ptas per game down 2 from regular season but still high. Higher 5 years ago but probably not otherwise. Several teams pushing 50% 3pta rate. Half dozen playoff teams have gone over in recent years but not yet a champion.

Knicks and Timberwolves 13th and 14th in playoffs on ts%. Timberwolves significantly better on offensive rating, Knicks stay 13th. Knicks defensive rating was 14th in regular season but currently 3rd in playoffs.

6 of top 8 on offensive rebounding rate in playoffs are still playing. Pacers dead last.