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Re: 2025-26 team win projection contest
Posted: Sun Dec 21, 2025 6:38 pm
by Crow
A simple display of just Darko, BPM and Vegas would be useful.Where do they differ most?
Re: 2025-26 team win projection contest
Posted: Mon Dec 22, 2025 8:26 pm
by Mike G
After 28 games (54 to go) OKC is 25-3, having lost 2 of their last 3.
If they continue losing 2/3 of games, they'll still win 43 games: 54/3 = 18 , on top of 25 = 43
This isn't a valid prediction, but we might consider the recent results to weigh more than very early games.
So here are a set of projections, using the Win% of their last 3, 6, 9, etc games as if it might recur in their remaining games.
Code: Select all
last W L Win% W+ +25
_3 1 2 .333 18 43
_6 4 2 .667 36 61
_9 7 2 .778 42 67
12 10 2 .833 45 70
15 13 2 .867 47 72
18 16 2 .889 48 73
21 18 3 .857 46 71
24 21 3 .875 47 72
27 24 3 .889 48 73
The avg of that final column is 67. Drop the first and last, and it's 69.5
Re: 2025-26 team win projection contest
Posted: Mon Dec 22, 2025 10:10 pm
by DQuinn1575
8 other teams have started 25-3 with an average year-end total of 66.4 wins, with a low of 61 (10 SAS) and high of 72, with 4 titles.
So 60+ looks real safe.
We do have 3 champ teams since the merger at 16-12 - 04 DET, 06 MIA, 21 MIL - so still hope for a lot of teams.
Re: 2025-26 team win projection contest
Posted: Tue Dec 23, 2025 12:49 am
by Crow
2020-21 Bucks appear to have had a strong net margin at that point, even after losing 4 straight near mid-February.
Pistons near neutral.
Heat quite negative but Shaq had barely played in first 20 games. He wasn't the most important player but he was somewhat helpful.
Re: 2025-26 team win projection contest
Posted: Tue Dec 23, 2025 4:07 pm
by Mike G
Leader board:
Code: Select all
. Atl Bos Brk Cha Chi
47 Veg 52 B-R 29 B-R 33 Wal 36 Wal
44 bpm 46 DKO 28 bpm 31 DKO 35 bpm
43 DKO 42 bpm 28 DKO 31 bpm 35 DKO
42 Wal 41 Wal 26 Wal 31 B-R 35 B-R
39 B-R 41 Veg 21 Veg 27 Veg 32 Veg
. Cle Det Ind Mia Mil
57 DKO 56 B-R 39 Wal 46 B-R 43 Wal
57 Veg 46 Veg 39 Veg 40 bpm 43 Veg
53 Wal 44 DKO 36 bpm 39 Veg 42 DKO
53 bpm 43 bpm 36 DKO 38 Wal 38 bpm
42 B-R 43 Wal 22 B-R 34 DKO 33 B-R
. NYK Orl Phl Tor Was
55 B-R 52 Veg 44 B-R 43 B-R 25 DKO
54 Veg 50 DKO 43 Veg 40 DKO 24 Wal
52 Wal 49 B-R 37 DKO 39 Veg 21 Veg
51 DKO 49 Wal 35 bpm 38 bpm 19 bpm
47 bpm 48 bpm 34 Wal 38 Wal 18 B-R
. Dal Den GSW Hou LAC
45 bpm 56 B-R 49 bpm 56 B-R 50 DKO
44 DKO 54 Veg 47 Wal 54 Veg 49 bpm
41 Veg 52 DKO 47 Veg 52 DKO 48 Veg
39 Wal 51 bpm 45 B-R 50 bpm 46 Wal
32 B-R 50 Wal 44 DKO 50 Wal 30 B-R
. LAL Mem Min NOP OKC
49 Veg 43 Wal 50 Veg 34 Wal 67 Wal
47 B-R 43 bpm 49 B-R 33 bpm 66 B-R
46 bpm 41 Veg 47 bpm 32 DKO 65 bpm
44 Wal 38 DKO 46 Wal 31 Veg 63 Veg
39 DKO 38 B-R 45 DKO 28 B-R 60 DKO
. Phx Por Sac SAS Uta
43 B-R 38 bpm 39 bpm 54 B-R 29 B-R
35 bpm 37 Wal 36 Wal 45 DKO 28 Wal
32 Wal 37 B-R 35 DKO 45 Veg 28 DKO
33 DKO 36 DKO 35 Veg 42 Wal 24 bpm
32 Veg 34 Veg 25 B-R 42 bpm 19 Veg
Walrus has sat at #3 or 4 for the last 3 weeks, and closer to these others than to anyone below.
Re: 2025-26 team win projection contest
Posted: Tue Dec 23, 2025 4:31 pm
by Crow
Thanks. That is easier to review.
Darko and BPM with close to same average errors but there are differences. An average difference of just over 2.5 wins assigned. Bigger differences with Cavs, Heat, Bucks, Wizards, Warriors, Thunder, Lakers, Griz, Jazz, Kings.
Re: 2025-26 team win projection contest
Posted: Wed Dec 24, 2025 4:09 pm
by Mike G
10-day low for the field. LAC >> Hou was huge; also Dal > Den
Code: Select all
. avg err rmse r^2 . avg err rmse r^2
DRKO 6.27 7.91 .53 perW 7.09 9.15 .39
bpmW 6.34 8.00 .52 eWin 7.18 8.64 .44
vegas 6.43 8.00 .56 dtka 7.27 8.73 .44
Walr 6.48 8.01 .52 Crow 7.27 9.07 .43
knar 6.55 7.94 .52 25pr 7.39 9.44 .36
avgA 6.74 8.27 .49 medi 7.62 9.21 .44
Mgoo 6.82 8.42 .48 KPel 7.93 9.75 .36
WShr 6.98 8.71 .44 DQin 8.62 10.57 .33
EExp 7.03 8.36 .48
Now 13 of 16 entries are within 1.00 of the lead.
Our avgA with largest yet lead over EExp.
Exponent leaders:
Code: Select all
e = .25 -- e = 1.64 e = 2.78
4.38 bpmW 7.39 DRKO 8.83 knar
4.48 DRKO 7.48 knar 8.84 DRKO
4.86 Walr 7.48 bpmW 8.91 Walr
4.93 vegas 7.49 vegas 8.91 vegas
5.10 perW 7.52 Walr 8.95 bpmW
5.18 Crow 7.88 Mgoo 9.19 EExp
5.24 knar 7.91 EExp 9.46 Mgoo
e = 3.98 e = 6.9 e = 20 ++
9.94 DRKO 11.7 vegas 14.4 bpmW
9.97 vegas 11.8 Walr 14.6 EExp
9.97 knar 11.8 DRKO 14.7 vegas
9.98 Walr 11.8 bpmW 15.0 Walr
10.07 bpmW 11.9 EExp 15.0 DRKO
10.21 EExp 12.0 knar 15.5 Mgoo
10.72 Mgoo 12.7 Mgoo 15.6 eWin
DARKO leads from .50 to 5.0, except for the interval 2.5 to 3.2 (knarsu)
Vegas is consigned to the 5.0 - 8.5 range.
BPM rules the high and low ends; both are tenuous.
Re: 2025-26 team win projection contest
Posted: Wed Dec 24, 2025 10:32 pm
by Crow
Current BRef guesses on winning a title:
Thunder 53%
6 contenders, about 42%
9 longshots, about 5%.
Lakers in the longshot category, given 0.1% chance.
Re: 2025-26 team win projection contest
Posted: Fri Dec 26, 2025 1:38 pm
by Mike G
In 2 weeks, knarsu has surged from #8 to #4, from .75 off the lead to just .23 back.
Code: Select all
. avg err rmse r^2 . avg err rmse r^2
DRKO 6.33 7.98 .52 perW 7.21 9.24 .38
bpmW 6.52 8.16 .51 eWin 7.27 8.78 .43
vegas 6.52 8.11 .55 Crow 7.31 9.17 .42
knar 6.56 8.06 .51 dtka 7.36 8.88 .42
Walr 6.59 8.16 .50 25pr 7.41 9.57 .35
avgA 6.76 8.40 .48 medi 7.68 9.33 .43
Mgoo 6.85 8.55 .46 KPel 8.00 9.85 .36
WShr 7.05 8.88 .42 DQin 8.66 10.68 .32
EExp 7.12 8.47 .47
Actually a couple of others have improved even more, relative to #1.
On Dec. 12 everyone but medi had their best/lowest errors of the season. And since then, the pack has significantly tightened.
Ranked by improvement in
how far off the lead everyone is in this interval:
Code: Select all
impr off: 12-12 12-26
.89 25pr 1.96 1.07
.62 WShr 1.34 .72
.41 knar .64 .23
.39 medi 1.73 1.34
.37 Crow 1.35 .98
.21 avgA .63 .42
.20 bpmW .38 .19
.19 DRKO .19 .00
.09 Walr .35 .26
.05 dtka 1.08 1.03
.03 Mgoo .55 .52
.00 KPel 1.67 1.67
.00 perW .88 .88
-.09 EExp .70 .79
-.18 DQin 2.15 2.33
-.19 vegas .00 .19
-.25 eWin .69 .94
The dummy at top -- last year's Pythagorean 'wins' regressed toward .500 -- is the only one with lower error than 12-12.
Re: 2025-26 team win projection contest
Posted: Sat Dec 27, 2025 3:38 am
by Crow
Worst BRef sim for Heat was apparently 33 wins. Will want to see actual and projections in 6 weeks and final results.
Re: 2025-26 team win projection contest
Posted: Sat Dec 27, 2025 3:39 am
by Crow
Need another 2-4 weeks like last 2.
Re: 2025-26 team win projection contest
Posted: Sat Dec 27, 2025 11:02 am
by Mike G
Code: Select all
. avg err rmse r^2 . avg err rmse r^2
DRKO 6.43 7.92 .52 EExp 7.10 8.47 .45
knar 6.49 7.94 .51 perW 7.16 9.17 .38
Walr 6.49 8.05 .50 eWin 7.19 8.75 .42
bpmW 6.50 8.07 .50 25pr 7.28 9.37 .35
vegas 6.53 8.17 .53 dtka 7.30 8.76 .42
avgA 6.77 8.33 .47 Crow 7.35 9.16 .42
Mgoo 6.84 8.52 .45 medi 7.85 9.39 .42
WShr 6.97 8.69 .43 KPel 8.09 9.88 .34
. DQin 8.73 10.54 .32
Lowest error of the year for 25pr. Early this month, they were .08 from the bottom.
Meanwhile, five are within .10 of the top.
UPDATE Dec. 28
Code: Select all
. avg err rmse r^2 . avg err rmse r^2
DRKO 6.52 8.03 .50 EExp 7.24 8.60 .43
knar 6.56 8.00 .50 perW 7.26 9.35 .35
bpmW 6.65 8.20 .48 eWin 7.29 8.84 .40
Walr 6.65 8.15 .48 dtka 7.46 8.87 .40
vegas 6.69 8.39 .51 Crow 7.51 9.38 .39
avgA 6.90 8.48 .45 25pr 7.53 9.42 .34
Mgoo 6.94 8.67 .43 medi 8.09 9.61 .39
WShr 7.10 8.79 .41 KPel 8.24 10.04 .32
. DQin 8.84 10.73 .30
Logjam at the top and exponent scramble:
Code: Select all
from - to leader
.. < 0.45 BPM
0.46 - 0.59 vegas
0.60 - 0.63 knarsu
0.64 - 1.78 DARKO
1.80 - 9.9 knarsu
10.0 - 69 BPM
70 < ... DARKO
UPDATE Dec. 31
Code: Select all
. avg err rmse r^2 . avg err rmse r^2
DRKO 6.36 7.88 .52 EExp 7.17 8.44 .45
bpmW 6.55 8.12 .49 eWin 7.28 8.76 .42
vegas 6.61 8.20 .53 perW 7.29 9.41 .35
knar 6.62 7.87 .52 dtka 7.35 8.68 .43
Walr 6.62 8.03 .50 Crow 7.46 9.34 .39
. 25pr 7.50 9.35 .35
avgA 6.92 8.40 .46 medi 8.08 9.53 .40
Mgoo 6.94 8.59 .44 KPel 8.34 10.02 .33
WShr 7.00 8.77 .42 DQin 8.76 10.67 .31
Empty line to note the separation between the top 5 and everyone else. KPel with season worst.
While DARKO currently enjoys a .19 lead, the next 4 are within a good day of closing that gap.
Here they are relative to the b-r.com projections of 15 teams presently
in contention:
Code: Select all
W Brk Cha Chi NYK Orl
31 kna 34 kna 36 Wal 55 B-R 52 Veg
31 B-R 33 Wal 36 kna 54 Veg 51 kna
28 bpm 32 B-R 35 bpm 52 Wal 50 DKO
28 DKO 31 DKO 35 DKO 51 DKO 49 Wal
26 Wal 31 bpm 34 B-R 48 kna 48 bpm
21 Veg 27 Veg 32 Veg 47 bpm 48 B-R
. Phl Was Den GSW Hou
43 Veg 25 DKO 54 B-R 49 bpm 56 B-R
42 B-R 24 Wal 54 Veg 48 kna 54 Veg
37 DKO 23 kna 52 DKO 47 Wal 52 DKO
35 bpm 21 Veg 51 bpm 47 Veg 50 kna
34 Wal 20 B-R 50 Wal 44 B-R 50 bpm
34 kna 19 bpm 45 kna 44 DKO 50 Wal
. LAL Mem Min OKC Por
49 Veg 43 Wal 50 Veg 67 Wal 38 bpm
46 bpm 43 bpm 49 B-R 65 bpm 37 Wal
45 B-R 41 Veg 47 bpm 64 B-R 37 B-R
44 Wal 41 kna 47 kna 63 kna 36 kna
41 kna 38 B-R 46 Wal 63 Veg 36 DKO
39 DKO 38 DKO 45 DKO 60 DKO 34 Veg
All else being equal, a single team could rise or fall enough to dramatically change these configurations. All else being equal, should the Nets collapse or the Warriors surge, or -- most probable -- the Nuggets sink:
Code: Select all
Brk=21 (31) Den=44 (54) GSW=49 (44)
vegas 6.26 knar 6.34 bpmW 6.40
DRKO 6.43 DRKO 6.57 DRKO 6.51
Walr 6.60 bpmW 6.68 knar 6.56
bpmW 6.67 Walr 6.72 Walr 6.61
Mgoo 6.85 vegas 6.92 vegas 6.62
knar 6.97
In parentheses are current projections. And in each case, the selected teams don't have to change by this much to promote these top entries.
Re: 2025-26 team win projection contest
Posted: Wed Dec 31, 2025 4:01 pm
by Crow
Mike G wrote: ↑Tue Dec 23, 2025 4:07 pm
Leader board:
Code: Select all
. Atl Bos Brk Cha Chi
47 Veg 52 B-R 29 B-R 33 Wal 36 Wal
44 bpm 46 DKO 28 bpm 31 DKO 35 bpm
43 DKO 42 bpm 28 DKO 31 bpm 35 DKO
42 Wal 41 Wal 26 Wal 31 B-R 35 B-R
39 B-R 41 Veg 21 Veg 27 Veg 32 Veg
. Cle Det Ind Mia Mil
57 DKO 56 B-R 39 Wal 46 B-R 43 Wal
57 Veg 46 Veg 39 Veg 40 bpm 43 Veg
53 Wal 44 DKO 36 bpm 39 Veg 42 DKO
53 bpm 43 bpm 36 DKO 38 Wal 38 bpm
42 B-R 43 Wal 22 B-R 34 DKO 33 B-R
. NYK Orl Phl Tor Was
55 B-R 52 Veg 44 B-R 43 B-R 25 DKO
54 Veg 50 DKO 43 Veg 40 DKO 24 Wal
52 Wal 49 B-R 37 DKO 39 Veg 21 Veg
51 DKO 49 Wal 35 bpm 38 bpm 19 bpm
47 bpm 48 bpm 34 Wal 38 Wal 18 B-R
. Dal Den GSW Hou LAC
45 bpm 56 B-R 49 bpm 56 B-R 50 DKO
44 DKO 54 Veg 47 Wal 54 Veg 49 bpm
41 Veg 52 DKO 47 Veg 52 DKO 48 Veg
39 Wal 51 bpm 45 B-R 50 bpm 46 Wal
32 B-R 50 Wal 44 DKO 50 Wal 30 B-R
. LAL Mem Min NOP OKC
49 Veg 43 Wal 50 Veg 34 Wal 67 Wal
47 B-R 43 bpm 49 B-R 33 bpm 66 B-R
46 bpm 41 Veg 47 bpm 32 DKO 65 bpm
44 Wal 38 DKO 46 Wal 31 Veg 63 Veg
39 DKO 38 B-R 45 DKO 28 B-R 60 DKO
. Phx Por Sac SAS Uta
43 B-R 38 bpm 39 bpm 54 B-R 29 B-R
35 bpm 37 Wal 36 Wal 45 DKO 28 Wal
32 Wal 37 B-R 35 DKO 45 Veg 28 DKO
33 DKO 36 DKO 35 Veg 42 Wal 24 bpm
32 Veg 34 Veg 25 B-R 42 bpm 19 Veg
BRef rolling projection at this date at one of the extremes in this group in 22 of 30 cases. How will things look at the end? Will one or more of the contest projections beat this version of BRef's time advantaged projection? Will the average of the 4? Time will eventually tell.
It could be a split decision and the split will be interesting.
Re: 2025-26 team win projection contest
Posted: Thu Jan 01, 2026 12:33 pm
by Mike G
WinShares and knarsu with their smallest errors of the season; DARKO lead is biggest for anyone since Dec. 10.
Code: Select all
. avg err rmse r^2 . avg err rmse r^2
DRKO 6.19 7.78 .53 EExp 7.04 8.35 .47
bpmW 6.44 8.07 .50 perW 7.16 9.33 .36
Walr 6.46 7.97 .51 eWin 7.18 8.72 .42
knar 6.46 7.84 .52 dtka 7.22 8.62 .44
vegas 6.59 8.11 .54 Crow 7.28 9.30 .40
avgA 6.72 8.35 .47 25pr 7.40 9.34 .36
Mgoo 6.84 8.54 .45 medi 8.07 9.45 .41
WShr 6.91 8.71 .43 KPel 8.21 10.00 .33
EExp 7.04 8.35 .47 DQin 8.64 10.62 .32
I just discovered the betting line on BETMGM, another "vegas" thing. Last year they were in the contest as bmgm; I thought at first they could not be serious, but in the last few weeks they got off the floor and did better than PER & eWins.
This year, they would be among the leaders and currently .10 better than the Vegas we've been seeing.
And this is after scaling their predictions downward, as their total sums to 1234 (vs 1230).
Update on the over- and under-achievers, relative to our averages.
Code: Select all
over tm avgA proj over tm avgA proj
12.3 SAS 42.5 54.8 12.0 Det 42.8 54.8
10.7 Phx 33.9 44.6 10.7 Mia 37.3 48.0
6.8 Uta 24.0 30.8 8.5 Bos 43.1 51.6
6.0 Hou 49.7 55.7 7.4 Tor 36.8 44.2
3.2 Den 50.6 53.8 6.4 NYK 48.3 54.7
2.3 OKC 62.7 65.0 5.8 Brk 25.7 31.5
1.1 Min 46.7 47.8 5.2 Phl 37.2 42.4
0.7 LAL 44.0 44.7 1.6 Cha 29.9 31.5
0.0 Por 36.1 36.1 0.1 Was 20.5 20.6
-3.7 GSW 48.3 44.6 -1.0 Chi 35.7 34.7
-4.5 Mem 42.8 38.3 -1.2 Orl 48.9 47.7
-8.4 NOP 32.8 24.4 -4.3 Atl 43.4 39.1
-12.9 LAC 49.3 36.4 -7.7 Cle 53.0 45.3
-14.3 Dal 45.6 31.3 -8.2 Mil 41.2 33.0
-15.5 Sac 38.2 22.7 -19.3 Ind 39.3 20.0
"We" expected average wins to favor the West by 43-39, and it's now right around 42-40.
UPDATE Jan. 3 -- some shuffling, Walrus in the 2 spot.
Code: Select all
. avg err rmse r^2 . avg err rmse r^2
DRKO 6.19 7.85 .53 dtka 7.11 8.60 .45
Walr 6.32 8.04 .51 perW 7.17 9.45 .35
bpmW 6.44 8.14 .50 eWin 7.21 8.85 .42
knar 6.59 7.94 .52 25pr 7.36 9.37 .36
vegas 6.68 8.07 .55 Crow 7.40 9.34 .40
avgA 6.77 8.40 .47 medi 8.06 9.43 .42
WShr 6.93 8.80 .43 KPel 8.19 10.04 .33
Mgoo 6.93 8.64 .45 DQin 8.50 10.57 .33
EExp 6.95 8.33 .48
We now have clear separations in the upper ranks.
Re: 2025-26 team win projection contest
Posted: Mon Jan 05, 2026 3:59 am
by Mike G
https://www.basketball-reference.com/fr ... _prob.html
As of now, the most likely playoff seedings in the west look like this:
Code: Select all
rk tm prob
1 OKC .994
2 Hou .488
3 SAS .315
4 Den .314
5 Min .340
6 LAL .229
7 Phx .243
8 GSW .199
The chance that all 8 spots fill out this way -- just multiply all 8 fractions -- comes to .00018, or one in 5536.
Switch the 2 and 3, SAS and Hou, the odds are 1:10,000+
Chance that happens and Min/Den switch spots is 1/56,000 ... others remaining the same.
UPDATE Jan. 5 -- a new entry in the contest, bmgm, was in it last year, mostly dwelling at the bottom. They are another vegas-like entity; the one formerly known as 'vegas' is now called Ebet.
The field worsened by an avg of .13 overnight, and more scrambling ensues.
Code: Select all
. avg err rmse r^2 . avg err rmse r^2
DRKO 6.41 8.07 .50 Mgoo 7.12 8.82 .42
bpmW 6.56 8.34 .47 dtka 7.27 8.80 .42
Walr 6.60 8.31 .47 eWin 7.30 8.97 .40
bmgm 6.71 8.31 .52 25pr 7.38 9.50 .34
knar 6.72 8.11 .49 perW 7.41 9.66 .33
Ebet 6.89 8.33 .52 Crow 7.59 9.50 .38
WShr 6.97 8.96 .40 medi 8.16 9.62 .40
avgA 7.02 8.61 .44 KPel 8.48 10.22 .31
EExp 7.02 8.50 .45 DQin 8.80 10.79 .30
Our avgA has lost its lead over EExp. KPel again with worst error to date; medi tied for their worst.