2019-2020 season commentary

[Crow]

25 teams played faster than last season's average pace. Lakers were last at 95.8 without Rondo.

Rockets slightly upped their 3pt rate from last season. Hornets on their heels. Lg avg slightly up at moment. Only last 3 Rockets teams have averaged over 40 3pt attempts per game for season. Right now there are 8. http://bkref.com/tiny/SBWn7 Corner 3 attempts down about 10%, as a pct. of total 3 attempts I believe.

Medium and long 2 attempts down some as are shots at rim. 3-10 footers up a bit at the moment. Mid-range efficiencies way down at the moment.

[Crow]

Doncic / Porzingis on court together in game 1- 22 minutes, minus 8.2 net rating according to pbpstats,com. Just one on court, great.

Westbrook / Harden had opposite dynamic in game 1. Good together, bad not.

LBJ / Davis, mildly positive together, bad with just Davis, horrendous in short minutes of just James.

SGA & C Paul, bad together, terrible with just SGA, tremendous with just Paul.

Horford / Embid together mildly negative, all other variations great.

Somethings to watch.

[Crow]

Imo, it is ridiculous how players so often show little to no concern about teammate offensive rebounding position, If you have a wide open shot or the clock is running down, ok; but every often they throw up a contested shot into a a sea of 3-4 defensive rebounders without any terammates in position for any normal chance of an offensive rebound. They of course hope to make the shot, but 50-70% the time they won't.

Sometimes teammates can move into position after the shot and it is their job to try (and maybe half o rmore of the critique should be directed towards them)but often there is little chance. I am not saying you have to wait all the time but they probably could often pick timing with better rebounding position and they can see better & decide more the rebounders can.

[Crow]

After game 2, Doncic / Porzingis is now on average nicely positive. Just Zingis has for moment turned quite bad. Will see where it goes by game 5. 10, 20, 50, 200...

SGA / Paul trends stayed the same thru game 2.

[Crow]

Who are the 2-3 worst teams? I'll give that a few more games to estimate / answer. There are 5-6 main candidates.

Almost everything working for the Hawks right now, except free throw shooting and Kevin Huerter's fg shooting.

Tatum has cut his mid-range rate by about a third, though it could go a little lower. Not getting to ft line much, a bit less than last season so far.

I guess I need to learn more about / watch Devonte Graham.

I was much lower on the Bulls than many. Early, I am more right than wrong.

Tristan Thompson and K love are off to hot starts. Trade before they cool or get injured.

D Rose super hot. Best since 2011-12 or ever. Without using the 3 ball hardly at all.

Paschall, who I liked in the draft a lot more than what I saw from others, doing pretty well with his opportunity.

Rockets have issues with shooting and defense. Harden worst of all.

Danny Green with a very strong start. A Davis, a bit quieter than expected.

Brandon Clarke is Brandon Clarke.

I went way high on Heat. Looking good in almost every way. Nunn, going well.

More issues than expected with Bucks start.

KAT going for MVP stats. Okogie breaking out. Culver quite so far.

LeVert, "a heist"? Too early to say that.

Brandon Ingram hot.

Barrett shooting better than expected from field, meh to bad in other ways.

Mitchell Robinson strong in important ways, not there yet in some others (turnovers, probably defense).

Fultz, pretty good.

T Harris, stronger start than I expected. Will see if it lasts.

Suns turned corner? Maybe.

Whiteside hot early.

Kings with a really bad game.

Sputs looking good. If not for the 3 pt game issue, they might be contenders.

Thunder worse than expected initially and it probably gets worse. Thru November and whole season. Gallo should get a good offer. Paul and Adams, no.

2-1 Jazz looking better. Still have some doubts compared to the lofty expectations of many.

Hachimura starts out as a 16 pts / 8 reb guy and should go up from there. Some or a lot?

League offensive efficiency worst in 8 years. That is probably typical for early and should recover; but how far? Only 7 teams starting out over 110.

[Crow]

At factor level, the Warriors have thus far sucked at shooting, defending the shot and fouling but have been great on the other 5. They'll probably regress toward middle on a lot of these factors, but which and how far long-term?

[eminence]

Only team I've watched multiple games (3) of so far is the Jazz. I've appreciated that their defense has largely held up, was concerned that might not happen as they shrunk. Offense very erratic so far, Bojan seems pretty important. Mitchell looking absolutely great early.

[Crow]

What is the success rate on pocket passes inside? Overall or attempted by big men? I see so many failures in these opening games. I'd be tempted to say knock it off. Off by a little can be too much and a lot are off by way more than that.

[Crow]

Kings are struggling across the board.

[Mike G]

Of players with >95 minutes (after 3 to 4 games per team), the slowest starters in the league:

Code: Select all

w/48     cold     tm    TS%   PER   WS/48    BPM
-.114   Redick   NOP   .473   2.4   -.159   -9.6
-.099   Conley   Uta   .308   -.6   -.130   -7.7
-.080   Warren   Ind   .411   6.0   -.100   -9.5
-.067   Gordon   Hou   .384   3.3   -.078   -7.6
-.056   Bacon    Cha   .426   7.1   -.080   -7.9
-.046   Hield    Sac   .481   7.0   -.109   -5.4
-.039   Herro    Mia   .451   4.7   -.040   -6.4

PER and BPM are converted roughly to WS/48 scale. The first column is then the avg of 3.
Since .100 is average, having a zero in the lineup is like playing 4-on-5. And a minus-.100 along with 4 avg players is like going 3-on-5. Roughly.

And those off to a hot start:

Code: Select all

w/48    hot     tm    TS%   PER   WS/48   BPM
.462   Towns   Min   .659   40.7   .427   19.5
.376   Irving  Brk   .616   38.0   .385   12.0
.353   Leonard LAC   .614   37.1   .333   11.7

.314   Young   Atl   .659   31.6   .278   11.6
.290  Mitchell Uta   .602   26.8   .308    9.6
.290 Westbrook Hou   .598   29.1   .253   10.8
.277   Doncic  Dal   .624   29.6   .246    9.4
.271   LeBron  LAL   .560   29.2   .252    8.6

.254   Brogdon Ind   .604   29.6   .264    5.9
.251   Lillard Por   .589   29.2   .252    6.2
.237   Oubre   Phx   .602   24.0   .259    6.4
.227  Thompson Cle   .620   27.3   .256    4.0
.225   Harrell LAC   .761   28.1   .244    3.8

That top group are 1-2-3 across the board.

[shadow]

Here's a link to 2019-20 RAPM which I'll update periodically throughout the season:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... ingle=true

Obviously these numbers are basically pure noise right now. Just figured I'd share the link so people could bookmark it for later use when the numbers actually have some credibility.

Will try to update it once every couple weeks or so.

[Crow]

GMs usually give extensions too soon, thinking that things are fine.

McMillan got one last fall. Now he probably should be on hot seat.

Playing slow (comparatively), lousy moreyball level, terrible D. The playing slow and lousy moreyball was also true last season. Can't continue and achieve anything.

Early of course, but few positives (turnovers- own and opponent).

3-12 in recent playoffs.

2 months or 2 years, I think he is eventually gone.

[Crow]

Super early trivia, but:

Beverley completely sucks by boxscore metrics. #1 on this RAPM? Surprising additional information. Doubt it lasts.

B Ingram 2nd lowest here. D Russell in bottom 10.

KAT top 25 but all on offense. Steph Curry and D Green slightly negative. Same fopr Westbrook. A Gordon, LaVine, Markannen in or near bottom 5%. Porzingis near bottom 20%. LeVert barely above median of qualifiers.

Wiggins makes top third so far.

Giannnis 85th. Doncic 59th. T Young way up to 34th.

Steven Adams has "looked" awful but still estimated at 24th.What you don't see or don't see as much as the obvious stuff looked for still matters. That and / or he has been "lucky" in some ways.

Leonard's 7th is best of the main MVP candidates.

[eminence]

The Donovan Mitchell disrespect Crow! I'll wait til the next update to look at pretty much any stats somewhat seriously.

[Crow]

I half expected that.

I noticed him up there, but didn't know what I wanted to say about that yet.

I don't think of him as an MVP candidate based on last season but he is off to a nice start this season so far.