Inquiries into stats and comparative detail

[Crow]

Coaching win%s:

https://x.com/bballstrategy/status/1847687516570472604

[Crow]

Game 1 vs last season, Wemby goes to almost 37% usage and assist rate falls 75%. eFG% to 31%, while TS% falls to 41%. DR% down almost 30%. Block rate down 65-70%. As bad as you could imagine. -16 BPM.

Defensive plan to give him 3s or bump him everywhere else looked good.

See what next games bring.

[Crow]

Jabari Smith in 2 games, career low ts% and usage. Career high OR% and block%. Down to -4.2 BPM though. Near best in rotation raw team +/- on the court.

A role player?

[Mike G]

Without internet for most of the last month, I've dug up last season's playoffs to gather correlations between some player summary stats and the minutes the player received.
Here are the 2 Finalist teams, round by round. Correlations are taken among top-5 (by minutes), top 6, etc. to top 10 (unless they only went 8 or 9 deep). So this is the average of 6 separate correlations; the 10th man is counted once, the 9th man twice, ... the top 5 are counted 6 times.

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rd   G    tm   opp    e484   PER   WS/48   BPM     avg
1    5    Bos  Mia    .50    .29    .01    .12     .14
2    5    Bos  Cle    .66    .47    .21    .55     .41
3    4    Bos  Ind    .92    .80    .34    .44     .53
4    5    Bos  Dal    .29    .10   -.29   -.23    -.14

1    6    Dal  LAC    .66    .41    .11    .44     .32
2    6    Dal  OKC    .38    .12   -.09    .39     .14
3    5    Dal  Min    .21    .15    .00    .07     .07
4    5    Dal  Bos    .47    .26   -.56    .23    -.02
.         averages:   .51    .32   -.03    .25     .18

Win Shares had Doncic and Irving among the worst Mavs in the Finals. Lively, Gafford, and Exum were "great" and in the bottom 1/2 of minutes.
Celtics were almost as upended. Tatum, Brown and Pritchard were their weak links.

The 3rd-rounders:

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rd   G    tm   opp    e484   PER   WS/48   BPM     avg
1    4    Min  Phx    .49    .58    .49    .62     .56
2    7    Min  Den    .69    .74    .68    .72     .71
3    5    Min  Dal    .59    .45   -.07    .15     .18

1    6    Ind  Mil    .22    .15    .23    .34     .24
2    7    Ind  NYK    .36    .21    .19    .19     .20
3    4    Ind  Bos    .14    .09    .08    .05     .07
.         averages:   .42    .37    .27    .34     .33

Pacers' Haliburton was their best player but missed more than half the series.

2nd-round eliminees:

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rd   G    tm   opp    e484   PER   WS/48   BPM     avg
1    6    NYK  Phl    .36    .19    .00    .38     .19
2    7    NYK  Ind    .25    .01   -.17    .07    -.03

1    5    Den  LAL    .66    .65    .54    .65     .61
2    7    Den  Min    .60    .59    .38    .55     .51

1    4    OKC  NOP    .64    .56    .27    .17     .34
2    6    OKC  Dal    .65    .56    .48    .50     .51

1    7    Cle  Orl    .44    .42    .32    .41     .38
2    5    Cle  Bos    .12    .04    .09   -.03     .04
.         averages:   .46    .38    .24    .34     .32

Cavs with superman Mitchell down midway thru their last series, Strus became their 'leader'.

Also-rans:

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rd   G    tm   opp    e484   PER   WS/48   BPM     avg                               
1    7    Orl  Cle    .73    .68    .37    .80     .62
1    6    Phl  NYK    .59    .58    .58    .53     .57
1    6    Mil  Ind    .37    .28    .13    .06     .15
1    6    LAC  Dal    .65    .69    .73    .79     .74

1    5    LAL  Den    .82    .79    .64    .72     .72
1    5    Mia  Bos    .46    .44    .18    .30     .30
1    4    Phx  Min    .65    .63    .48    .61     .57
1    4    NOP  OKC   -.24   -.36   -.30   -.28    -.32
.         averages:   .50    .47    .35    .44     .42

Trey Murphy did not lead the Pels anywhere.
Top-heavy Lakers without much bottom support.

[Mike G]

2023 Playoffs:

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rd   G    tm   opp   e484    PER   WS/48   BPM     avg
1    5    Den  Min    .78    .70    .63    .67     .67
2    6    Den  Phx    .57    .54    .41    .50     .49
3    4    Den  LAL    .84    .84    .75    .85     .81
4    5    Den  Mia    .66    .55    .44    .48     .49

1    5    Mia  Mil    .50    .49    .27    .35     .37
2    6    Mia  NYK    .62    .59    .43    .33     .45
3    7    Mia  Bos    .62    .51    .32    .40     .41
4    5    Mia  Den    .71    .48    .09    .24     .27
correll. avg          .66    .59    .42    .48     .49

rd   G    tm   opp   e484    PER   WS/48   BPM     avg
1    6    LAL  Mem    .80    .62    .37    .54     .51
2    6    LAL  GSW    .76    .62    .46    .54     .54
3    4    LAL  Den    .87    .89    .85    .87     .87

1    6    Bos  Atl    .68    .35   -.37   -.02    -.01
2    7    Bos  Phl    .63    .53    .28    .31     .37
3    0    Bos  Mia    .60    .17   -.23    .00    -.02
correll. avg          .72    .53    .23    .37     .38

rd   G    tm   opp    e484    PER   WS/48   BPM     avg
1    4    Phl  Brk    .41    .23    .22    .51     .32
2    7    Phl  Bos    .60    .57    .41    .48     .48

1    7    GSW  Sac    .46    .27   -.10    .05     .07
2    6    GSW  LAL    .36    .13   -.02    .23     .11

1    5    NYK  Cle    .46    .32    .21    .33     .29
2    6    NYK  Mia    .79    .72    .59    .70     .67

1    5    Phx  LAC    .75    .66    .43    .53     .54
2    6    Phx  Den    .92    .85    .58    .84     .76
correll. avg          .60    .47    .29    .46     .41

rd   G    tm   opp    e484    PER   WS/48   BPM     avg
1    7    Sac  GSW    .74    .67   -.01    .59     .42
1    6    Mem  LAL    .52    .34    .09    .10     .18
1    5    LAC  Phx    .30    .24   -.17    .15     .07
1    5    Min  Den    .76    .70    .62    .52     .61

1    6    Atl  Bos    .43    .22   -.21    .05     .02
1    5    Cle  NYK    .74    .71    .26    .58     .51
1    5    Mil  Mia    .13    .18    .17    .00     .12
1    4    Brk  Phl    .57    .39    .12    .28     .26
correll. avg          .52    .43    .11    .28     .27

correll. 23 playoffs  .62    .50    .26    .40     .39

Minutes per game played would probably be better than total minutes in a series, as when a major player misses some games and is therefore much lower in the total minutes being correlated.
However, all the stats suffer the same issue, so they are still comparable to one another.

2022 Playoff correlations:

Code: Select all

rd   G     tm  opp    e484   PER   WS/48   BPM     avg
1    5    GSW  Den    .50    .35    .21    .32     .29
2    6    GSW  Mem    .43    .13   -.13    .22     .08
3    5    GSW  Dal    .28    .14   -.20   -.22    -.09
4    5    GSW  Bos    .17    .02   -.32   -.04    -.11
1    4    Bos  Brk    .59    .53   -.02    .37     .29
2    7    Bos  Mil    .61    .43    .07    .45     .32
3    7    Bos  Mia    .38    .27    .06    .16     .16
4    5    Bos  GSW    .31    .08   -.18    .06    -.01
Finalist correll.:    .41    .24   -.06    .17     .12

rd   G     tm  opp    e484   PER   WS/48   BPM     avg
1    5    Mia  Atl    .45    .36    .25    .32     .31
2    6    Mia  Phl    .80    .84    .92    .90     .89
3    7    Mia  Bos    .61    .60    .65    .59     .61
1    6    Dal  Uta   -.09   -.06    .17   -.02     .03
2    7    Dal  Phx    .50    .34    .08    .28     .23
3    5    Dal  GSW    .30    .26   -.02    .28     .17
Conf. finals          .43    .39    .34    .39     .37

rd   G     tm  opp    e484   PER   WS/48   BPM     avg
1    6    Phx  NOP    .45    .43    .50    .50     .48
2    7    Phx  Dal    .38    .07   -.19   -.01    -.04
1    5    Mil  Chi    .49    .30    .02    .10     .14
2    7    Mil  Bos    .80    .73    .03    .84     .53
1    6    Mem  Min    .46    .26    .03    .27     .18
2    6    Mem  GSW   -.01   -.01    .06   -.02     .01
1    6    Phl  Tor    .80    .53    .25    .19     .32
2    6    Phl  Mia    .61    .50    .15    .04     .23
2nd rounders          .50    .35    .11    .24     .23

rd   G     tm  opp    e484   PER   WS/48   BPM     avg
1    6    Min  Mem    .51    .18   -.20   -.11    -.05
1    6    NOP  Phx    .36    .14   -.25    .19     .02
1    6    Tor  Phl    .39    .28    .12    .11     .17
1    6    Uta  Dal    .60    .41    .13    .30     .28
1    5    Atl  Mia    .26   -.10   -.40   -.18    -.23
1    5    Chi  Mil    .84    .79    .30    .50     .53
1    5    Den  GSW    .59    .51    .31    .45     .42
1    4    Brk  Bos   -.06   -.20   -.34   -.33    -.29
1st rounders          .44    .25   -.04    .11     .11

[Crow]

10 of 11 toughest SOS so far are in west. 9 of 10 easiest in east. Wizards buck the trend in east. Rockets in the west.

5 of 7 best offenses in east. Thunder 23rd. Pelicans 27th.

8 of 8 worst defenses in the east.

4 "super teams" by net rating (+10 or better). 6 by SRS.

8 possession range in pace last season. Currently 15. Bulls at almost 109, Knicks at 94. Thunder at 105. Does that help or hurt their offense? I'd guess hurt by performance. Bulls 28th on offensive efficiency.

12 teams better than mean on defense, 18 below.

[Crow]

Currently 64 minutes qualified players with +1 BPM or better.

Others may help in smaller minutes and in non-boxscore ways. Or on other metrics. But many of the rest are hurting the results.

Starters who aren't +1 or 0 or maybe even -1 should be reviewed, especially if moderately expensive or more.

33 minutes qualified are starting out -5 to way worse.

Castle absolute lowest in the group followed closely by Nurkic. Others rating terrible include K George (Jazz), C Martin (Sixers), Amen Thompson, Risacher, C Williams, Nembhard, KCP, Zion, Jalen Johnson...

So many of these off to a bad start. 62 at under -3. Probably corrects some for half or more. It better.


Castle starting off with horrendous shooting, high turnovers and very light rebounding.

[Crow]

S Henderson, mildly improving on overall Darko. Offense almost to median but defense continues to drift down and is already bottom 2%.

[Crow]

Current bottom 4 in league among those who have played by LeBron in descending order:

Patrick Williams
Surprisingly B Ingram
Cody Williams
Keyonte George

Other names in bottom 5% include Missi and Sheppard.

[Crow]

Giannis, career best DReb%. By far career low on 3pt fg%, FT% and steal rate. Best TO%. Tied for lowest block rate. Lowest DBPM in 7 years. Lowest 3pta rate. Lowest fta rate in 7 years.

Still great but changing. Lowest BPM in 5 years. More likely to decline from here? 30 next month.

[Crow]

Early FTA spike is fading.

[Crow]

After 2 years at star level BPM, Markkanen is back to neutral. Sub 30% finishing at the rim is a main reason. Horrendous medium and long range mid-range shooting is another along with smaller things.

[Crow]

Edey breaks neutral on BPM.

Still -1.6 on Darko. Offense improving slightly, defense trending down. By net positive movement in last few games.



Anthony Edwards loses about 25% on BPM from last season and is no longer a +3 (+2.5).

Podziemski struggling as a shooter.

[Crow]

Morey's teams have always been .500+ in regular season, though they could fall short this season. Barely .500 in playoffs with 2 trips to conference finals in 17 seasons.

[Crow]

Zion's at the rim frequency (<3ft) has gone from 74% as a rookie to 39% now. Short 3-10 footers from 18% to 50%.

Hardly better than average atr fg% ever, modestly below now. Always modest at hitting the short mid-range, he is under 35% this season. It is not close to an acceptable substitute for at the rim. Basically half as good.


Would anyone trade for Zion? I am pretty skeptical. Of course it would depend on package. Considered the Bulls. Maybe if they wanted to ship some folks out. Plenty of options.