APBRmetrics

With 3 minutes left in 3rd quarter, LeBron has a raw team +/- of -24 on court and +2 with him off. Pretty long way to go.

Ends at -22.


L. James - L. Dončić - A. Reaves was -24pts / 100p in 24 minutes. You can stay autopilot with that or read / think about the analytics as raised here. Raised on team?

Doncic - James -17 / 100p in 32 minutes. Major erosion in recent months and games.

So -10 pts. in their 32 min. together, and LA without both was -12 in the other 16 min?
One of these is worse than the other.

Sites usually vary on ĺineup and sub-lineup data. Some things are apparently not done consistent.

Here is pbpstats.com;

https://www.pbpstats.com/wowy-combos/nb ... 44,1629029

They have it -25pts / 100p together, about neutral with just Doncic, -129 with just LeBron, +45 with neither (probably garbage time).

Together a failure on defense, apart failures on offense for both and a massive failure on defense with just LeBron.

So parts are not the same. Worst by miles with just LeBron. Still terrible with both, much better the other 2 ways.

Opponent 3 pt fg% exploded when James was on court and not when he wasn't. It was worse with him on court vs off in regular season too, but only by about 4%pts compared to other combinations with and without Doncic. 4% is meaningful. 25-67% worse this game was crazy. Some random likely but check the tape for detailed assessment of his defense.

9 of 10 most used Lakers player pairs for series so far are raw team +/- negative, 6 are -10 to -24pts / 100p.

7 of 8 LeBron pairs are negative, 5 badly.

Doncic's top 3 pairs are negative.

Doncic - James is -6pts / 100p.


Big offensive boxscore by LeBron tonight did not get enough offensive help or enough defense.

LeBron -12.2 pts / 100p team +/- on the court in playoffs (10th of 13 on team), -14 on / off.

Doncic, 9th on, 8th on / off but a strong positive on / off.

Other 3 starters are the 3 worst on both. Pulling James and Doncic down and not being lead by them.

LeBron openly admits to saving energy in spots... or vast swaths.

Starters with Hayes -46 / 100p, without -15.
Both terrible. Other changes needed. On Redick (as much as it is on coaches) so far and what's coming.

Small samples make it hard, but if stopping on Hayes isn't enough, Hachimura is next and may not be enough.

Luka - Doncic and just 1 other starter is positive in 2 cases. Probably have to do that more. May not be appealing or work but it is either try more different or stay the same.

DFS, Vincent, Vando, Knecht. Their very best lineups.

Less LeBron is probably not being considered but perhaps should be. LeBron at 33 or 30 minutes instead of 39?

BPM has LeBron at +10, Luka at +6 but it is not working on average. Almost no other positives and the other main pieces clearly negative and Hayes abysmal.

Change now, change big. In design or not (I would) but it better change on results.

Reaves James no Doncic and Reaves without either both worked in regular season. Former is bad in light playoffs use, the later unused. Review and have a guess. On that and everything.

LeBron with worst raw +/- of Lakers starters. Luka 2nd worst. Not much (-4 and -3) but enough to lose the game.

-4.4 / 100p together. 3rd worst of 10 most used pairs. Only things worse were each with Finney-Smith.

James with worst raw plus minus on team at -13. -16 / 100p on vs about +48 when off.

Lakers fall short in the game and for the season. Every level gets a share.



Next season?

Help from Chris Paul, B Lopez, others?

LeBron stays put or looks at up to 10 other teams?

At minimum I'd review whether to keep any player beyond the top 2 and lean against keeping most or all. And... I'd think on the top 2 as well.

With very tough west, this didn't and won't cut it.

Not good roster design. Not good coaching. Not good enough player leadership. Not good enough rotation play.


Need shot defense most of all. Probably ball pressure. Bench scoring. Leadership.

Adjusted starting lineup with DFS goes -27pts / 100p.

4 of 5 next most used all bad negatives.

10 of 11 most used pairs double digit bad. Donic James a middle of the pack -18.

Virtually no good leading lineup choices. May have some dink positives bur not enough. Against a team that had a historically bad game from 3.

Redick ends up with 6 of 7 most used
lineups terrible to super horrendous.

Doncic -James ends up almost -10pts / 100p. Same for trio with Reaves. Stay unquestioned with that core? I wouldnt.

10 of 10 most used pairs negative.

Roster and / or coaching did not work here.

According to BPM, the Lakers were 4.6 ppg worse in playoffs than in regular season.
Austin Reaves' plunge from +1.9 to -3.7 accounts for the entirety of that shortfall.

Dalton Knecht was #5 in Lakers' minutes this year and buried on the bench.
Alex Len is better than No Center. Coach sux.

By net margin the Lakers were 8 pts worse in playoffs according to BRef. BPM may be underestimating that. (Or something else is happening).

BPM accounts for strength of opponent.
Min SRS was 5.15 in season. Lakers being 8 pts worse than normal (1.45) sounds about right.

Doncic - James was worst pair in 6 most used, 2nd worst in 11 most used, 9th worst in top 50.

Any explanation for this?
Lineup trickery? 3PT shooting 'luck'?
Seemed to continue in the playoffs, albeit a small sample size.
DFS and Luka continue to look great.
Has anyone ran an adjust for this? XRAPM(the site) has his single season rapm at -2.9(9th percentile).
He seems to be opting into his contract. I'd be worried as a Laker fan...

Opponent 3 point shooting was a pretty big issue in regular season, less so in playoffs. Luck, help / close out effort...

This isn't a concern at the top of my mind right now. The previous commentary could go deeper.

Fwiw, on quick check, I see opponent efg% for Lakers with James was an amazing 38% efg%. James on court was awful with starters but several times worse with other bigger minute lineups. Opponent offensive rebounding and turnovers were common and major issues with these. Opponent efg with James on court was slightly better than regular season but only meh. His playoff pair data was quite bad with all starters. The only configuration with mostly starters that worked for modest time was James, Doncic, DFS or Reaves without Hachimura and Hayes (and presumably small ball).

Maybe I do more in future.

Look into it further if you are interested. I'd read more analysis. It remains a worthwhile topic.